Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pamplin City, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 815 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Convection coming to an end this evening.

2) Strong to severe storms again tomorrow.

Earlier we saw a couple strong storms able to develop as the cap eroded aloft. We were primed for severe weather with large amounts of instability and shear, but forcing proved to be elusive, so most of the Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled. The watch remains over parts of central VA where a strong storm continues to dive south. Currently that storm is weakening and we may be able to cancel the rest of the watch shortly.

Tomorrow is looking especially volatile, with instability and shear in place as well as strong forcing. Could see a few rounds of storms going into the late night hours tomorrow.

As of 145 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Scattered strong to severe storms.

2) Primary threat is large damaging hail. Secondary threat is wind. Isolated threat for tornadoes.

Concern for the remainder of the afternoon and evening is the development of strong to severe storms. Per the latest SPC discussion...diurnal heating and orographic effects will aid in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain this afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft will favor a southeastward storm motion within an environment of moderate/locally strong instability. 35-45 kts of northwesterly deep shear is anticipated, supporting supercell structures and clusters, posing a risk for large hail and damaging winds. The overall hodograph structure and resulting storm motion appears favorable for some very large hail over 2" in diameter.

Area highlighted for destructive hail is north and east of Roanoke...this is where best shear profiles are being forecast.
As such, today is one of those days to put your car in the garage or under a shelter if you have one. With supercells being the favored storm mode, isolated tornadoes are also possible, so closely monitor media outlets for forecast updates and warnings.

The area being highlighted for the crux of the severe weather is generally north and east of Roanoke. To the south and west, a marginal risk for severe storms remains across most of the rest of the forecast area, though PoPs are lower for the SW CWA

Shower/storms are expected to dissipate after sunset, with relatively quiet weather forecast for the remainder of the night. That said will have to watch for nocturnal deep convection over the Ohio Valley which may impact the western CWA toward daybreak Friday.

Friday's weather will hinge on where the ongoing morning activity plays out. The outflow boundary associated with this feature may become the focus for the afternoon renued development, but question is where. CAMS are currently highlighting the VA Piedmont.

Looking farther upstream, a trough of low pressure in the upper Mid-West is expected to move east into the OH/TN Valleys.
Dynamic support from this feature is addition to increasing boundary layer moisture up through the TN/OH valleys is expected to lead to favorable conditions for severe storms which would move downstream into our forecast area late in the day or overnight Friday night. Per SPC a mature bowing MCS is expected to move over the WV/VA/NC mountains and spread east across the region, posing a risk for swaths of strong to damaging wind gusts. Forecast guidance varies in timing and exact evolution of this system across the region, but portions of the area may need higher probabilities in subsequent outlooks.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 145 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Chance of showers and storms early Saturday with generally fair weather for Sunday.A few storms early Saturday could be strong.

2) Warm temperatures continue through Saturday. Not as warm Sunday.

A closed upper low will move through the Great Lakes Saturday, dragging a trough across the mountains at some point early in the day Saturday with a front to follow Saturday afternoon/evening. Anomalously high PW's will remain in place across the area with nearly all ensemble clusters indicating some amount of instability during the morning hours. Will retain the forecast of increased PoPs during the early morning hours, gradually tapering off through the day. By the time the front arrives during the afternoon, mid level drying may be sufficient to limit the areal coverage of showers and storms and keep them primarily confined to the mountains. Low confidence in the temperature forecast given the likelihood for early morning cloud cover, followed by late day clearing. Generally speaking the NBM paints in highs in the upper 70s in the mountains to the upper 80s in the southeast.

Sunday appears dry and not as humid, temperatures about 5 degrees lower than Saturday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 145 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) A gradual cooldown expected through the week.

2) Unsettled weather returns.

Monday appears to be dry with weak mid level ridging overhead.
Look for temps ranging from the mid 70s in the mountains to the lower 80s in the east.

Tuesday through Thursday will see an upper low over the central Plains kick out a series of weak shortwave troughs, yielding unsettled weather downstream across the Appalachians. 00Z ensemble cluster analysis suggests increased precip chances across the area from mid week onward. Given expected cloud cover, look for temps to be below normal for mid/late May, especially Thursday as the longwave trough swings through the area.

AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 830 PM EDT Thursday...

Storms are dissipating, with just a strong cell probably staying east of LYH. Otherwise we are seeing VFR conditions. Patchy fog will again be possible overnight into Friday morning, likely bringing some TAF sites down to sub MVFR. Additional showers/storms may arrive early, then we should see a break, and then additional storms develop tomorrow night.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Friday will see another chance for scattered showers/storms.
Saturday, a cold front moves through with showers and storms moving into the area, then clearing for Saturday night and Sunday. High pressure ridging into the Mid-Atlantic Sunday and into early next week, keeping the weather quiet with likely VFR conditions for all terminals. Unsettled weather returns Tuesday into Wednesday.

EQUIPMENT
As of 820 PM EDT Thursday...

The National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in Blacksburg, VA is continuing to conduct a required, scheduled update to their Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) that began Tuesday, May 13, 2025.

While we have taken back over most of the forecast operations, our service back-up office in Raleigh, NC may occasionally issued products until all services are restored. No impacts to our core services of forecast products and weather watches, warnings and advisories are expected during this period.

The forecast office in Blacksburg, VA will remain open and staffed through the period for public and partner phone calls.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.