Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pamplin City, VA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Storms possible on Sunday, some may be strong to severe.

2) Above normal temperatures expected Sunday.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Storms possible on Sunday, some may be strong to severe.

Mid and upper level vigorous shortwave trough will progress into the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes region Sunday afternoon and evening. Ahead of this shortwave there looks to be an embedded weak disturbance that may lead to some late morning and early afternoon shower/thunderstorm activity to roll through the area tomorrow. There is still some uncertainty with this as CAM models once again seem to be struggling with the evolution of storm development for the area. This may be a situation where storm evolution may become more clear on the day of the event as small mesoscale features start to present themselves across the region.

Some moisture return is expected ahead of this upper level system by tomorrow, and even though early morning dewpoints will likely reach the mid 60s to near 70 areawide, forecast soundings from the CAM guidance shows a dry pocket of air through the mid levels that look to mix out across the area Sunday afternoon.
This would lead to surface dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, which will once again lead to DCAPE values approaching values in the range of 1000-1300 J/Kg as daytime heating additionally leads to high temperatures reaching the low to mid 90s across the Piedmont, and low to mid 80s across mountain locations.
MLCAPE values look to exceed 1500 J/Kg, which would be plenty to help fuel storms along the upper level trough as it pushes through the region. The main threat will be damaging winds based on model soundings showing inverted-V profiles, dry air through the mid levels, and DCAPE values also exceeding 1000 J/kg.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Above normal temperatures expected Sunday.

A return of higher dewpoints on Sunday combined with increasing high temperatures back into the mid 90s for the Piedmont and mid to upper 80s for mountain locations, will increase Heat Index values once again across the region as 850mb temperatures approach 20 degrees Celsius once again. While Heat Advisory criteria will likely not be met, temperatures will be warm across the region, and sensitive groups should avoid outdoor activity during the peak heating of the day. Those that work outdoors should similarly take frequent breaks indoors with AC, and drink plenty of fluids.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Scattered showers and storms developing mainly after 18Z Sunday. Expect VFR to give way to spotty MVFR ceilings, although models show mainly VFR ceilings around 4-5kt even well after 18Z. Convection pushes east after 15/00Z, with some additional activity moving into the western mountains through 03Z before dissipating along the Blue Ridge. The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms, with damaging winds being the greatest threat, exists east of the Blue Ridge.

Could see some patchy early morning fog in the river valleys affecting KLWB and KBCB. Confidence is low on specific vsby values, since after a day of drying, the ground may not be as moist, and we will see increasing cirrus overnight. But there is a small, non-zero probability of vsbys lower than 3SM. Any fog will dissipate after sunrise with the onset of daytime mixing.

Westerly winds become calm to light overnight, increasing by 13-15Z to 5-7 kts. After 17-20Z, expect speeds to increase to 8-13 kts with gusts to 20 kts in the evening.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK

Going back into a general summer time pattern where scattered showers and storms will become common during afternoon and evening hours Sunday into next week, but mostly VFR outside of any late night fog and storms in the afternoon/evening.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.