Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for West Point, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
As of 310 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- A few showers early this morning, along with areas of fog through mid-morning.

- Warmer today with highs into the mid to upper 80s for most of the area. A few strong storms possible over the piedmont late this afternoon into early evening.

Latest surface analysis reveals low pressure well offshore of the Delmarva early this morning, with a quasi-stationary frontal boundary extending back SW just south of the forecast area just south of the Albemarle sound, with an effective warm front then extending W/NW of the local area back toward low pressure currently over the U.P. of Michigan as of this writing. Aloft, an upper trough continues to settle east across the mid south and the west-central gulf coast. A weak upper shortwave is pushing across the region early this morning, setting off a few isolated to widely scattered showers. We've maintained a 20-30% PoP for these showers, which will make their way E-NE toward the coast through mid-morning. This could amount to a quick few hundredths to a tenth of an inch through mid morning. Otherwise, patchy fog and low clouds persist this morning. The fog will linger into the AM commute. Do not expect any issues with widespread dense fog, but will keep an eye out for potential SPS or mention through our social media channels. Temperatures this morning were largely in the upper 60s to around 70, with some low to mid 60s in onshore flow along the Eastern Shore.

The upper midwest low swings up into central Ontario through the day, shunting the effective warm front, or wedge front, north through the region today as it washes out. Meanwhile, the upper trough advances east and squeezes the sub-tropical ridge north along the eastern seaboard. Rising upper-level heights and gradually clearing afternoon sky portend increasing amounts of sunshine by late morning/early aftn, along with highs warming into the mid to upper 80s by later aftn (upper 70s to lower 80s eastern shore). Could have some early afternoon convection along the coast along afternoon seabreeze circulations. Otherwise expect a brief lull behind the morning shortwave.

By late aftn though, another TN Valley shortwave, this one a bit stronger, swings east across the mountains. Most CAMs kick off some showers and storms that could reach into the region late today into this evening. Given decent instability parameters in place, some showers/storms will be possible across the piedmont by or just after 3-4 PM. Shear values are still not overly impressive (20-30 kt at best), but mid-level lapse rates are a bit better than the past several days and may compensate a bit for the lack of shear. The primary threat from any severe storm is damaging winds, with the threat mostly limited to the nrn piedmont mainly W/NW of RIC. SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk for severe weather west of the Bay.

Showers and storms taper with loss of heating this evening, leaving a mild/muggy night with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 310 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and humid Wed and Thursday, with heat headlines possible in the SE both days.

- Severe Tstms possible late Thursday into Thursday night.

The upper trough will dampen Wednesday, as it runs into the upper ridge. However, before it does so, it could trigger a few showers and storms Wed afternoon and evening across the NW (mainly N-NW of US-360). Have increased PoPs to 30-40% over the NW third of the area from FVX-RIC-SBY, with little to no PoP mention for the peninsulas and VA eastern shore southward.
Notable that SPC has added the northern neck and Eastern Shore into a Day 2 Marginal Risk, again with damaging winds as the primary hazard.

Main sensible weather item of note Wednesday will be the building heat. As the previously referenced upper-level ridge lifts north across the east coast, summer-like heat will come with it. Highs Wednesday rise into the low- mid 90s for most of the area. Lows Wed night in the low to mid 70s. There is a better chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening as a cold front approaches the region.
Timing still looks to be late in the afternoon in to Thursday evening. With the later timing, expect Thursday to be 2-3 deg warmer on average with compressional warming ahead of the frontal passage. Given the pattern, and with the recent wet spell, have kept high temperatures both Wed and Thu on the cooler edge of guidance, but with dew pts at or slightly higher than MOS numbers (but a bit lower than NBM). Expect heat indices to peak around 105F in the SE, where heat headlines may well be needed, to the upper 90s to ~103F elsewhere. With this high heat and humidity, ample instability is expected along and ahead of a cold front. In addition, model mid-level lapse rates are currently showing values >6-6.5 C/Km, along with bulk shear values of 30-40kt. SPC has most of the region in a Day 4 15% Risk (Slight), and this would be mainly for wind, though large hail will be possible as well. While we would expect this to hold for the new outlook, this will be updated with the new Day 3 issuance shortly.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 310 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- After a brief modest cool down on Friday, temperatures ramp back up over the weekend into early next week. Summer heat and moderate humidity levels expected Sunday through the middle of next week. Heat headlines are likely to be needed for (at least) portions of the area.

A brief respite from the hot temperatures Friday (ironically the summer solstice is Friday night). Dry and modestly cooler Friday, though a few afternoon seabreeze showers/storms are possible across the N OBX. Temperatures trend warmer through the weekend and into early next week. We could see a few storms Sat night/early Sunday across mainly NE sections of the FA as both the GFS/ECMWF and ensembles are showing a shortwave diving SSE from the Great Lakes (will continue to monitor this over the next few days). Beyond that, there is good model consensus that an upper level trough locks in place over the NW CONUS, with a strong upper ridge across the central and eastern CONUS. Some of the models depict 500 mb heights rising to nearly 600 dm. The period next week looks quite hot for a prolonged period given this setup. Humidity level might be slightly lower given this ridge being more of continental origin, though with the recent wet spell, this is uncertain.

AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 215 AM EDT Tuesday...

CIGs have fallen back into IFR/LIFR range over area terminals, with widespread IFR/LIFR CIGs at all sites persisting into mid- morning (12-14z) Tuesday morning. In addition to the low CIGs , patchy fog/drizzle will also be possible, reducing VSBYs to MVFR or IFR at times. Conditions begin to improve later Tuesday morning, with CIGs becoming MVFR ~13-15z. CIGs do look to improve to high-end MVFR to VFR by late in the period (after 18z). However, some widely scattered afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, initially with afternoon seabreeze along the coast, and then with convection arriving from the west late Tuesday afternoon/early Tue evening that may lead to localized restrictions. Chances of showers/storms at terminals remain low enough to hold out mention for now, but will re-evaluate later this morning.

Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions are expected (outside of patchy AM fog in the typical spots) again tonight into early Wednesday. Additional late day and evening convection is possible on Wednesday afternoon, with more widespread coverage expected Thursday afternoon/evening, as a cold front crosses the region. Very warm, dry, with VFR conditions for Friday into the weekend.

MARINE
As of 310 AM EDT Tuesday...

- Benign marine conditions continue throughout today.

- SW winds increase by the middle of the week potentially brining SCA conditions across the bay.

Early morning weather analysis shows a predominately zonal flow aloft across the area. While at the surface a 1020mb+ high pressure continues to sit over Bermuda. A weak pressure gradient over the area has lead to light onshore flow across the bay and southern waters. While across the north winds light winds are coming out of the NNE. Winds this morning are between 5 to 10 kt and seas are ~1ft across the bay and 2 to 3 ft across the ocean. Across the northern waters there is the potential of fog as the front to the south pushes warmer air over the cooler water. Satellite and surface observations are showing visibility between 3 to six miles across the water. Trends will continue to be monitored if visibility drops.

Benign marine conditions are expected through much of the day. A warm front will lift north through the day allowing SSE winds to continue through the day. Winds today will be sustained between 5 to 10 kt with gusts upwards of 15 kt. Seas will increase only increase in the bay today as winds increase and seas will be 1 to 2 ft. While across the ocean seas will remain between 2 to 3 ft. In addition to the benign marine conditions, there is the potential of showers and thunderstorms across the waters. Later this evening and into tonight winds will begin to increase and shift out of the SSW. The winds will increase to 10 to 15 kt with gusts nearing 20 kt. This is due to the pressure gradient tightening from the high to the east and a developing low to the west. The better chances for SCA conditions reside late Wednesday night into late Thursday night. Latest model guidance shows adequate mixing in the lower levels of the atmosphere and decently strong 925mb jet. The local wind probabilities have also shows a probability of frequent wind gusts near 20 kt between 80 to 90%. There is high enough confidence with in this forecast that SCA will potentially be needed later this week. The daily chances of showers and thunderstorms will also continue throughout this week.

Onshore flow will continue to be present across the northern beaches today as the warm front continues to lift north. There is also the potential of 2 to 3 ft waves along the shore line.
This will lead to a moderate rip current risk today. Across the south low rip currents will remain the the forecast for today.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Onshore flow over the last couple of days has led to slightly elevated tidal anomalies, particularly in the upper bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock/Potomac rivers. While this morning's high tide should be lower than the tides of yesterday morning, we are likely to see some lingering nuisance to near minor flooding. A Coastal Flood Statement was issued for the upper Rappahannock River (Tappahannock gage) where level may near the minor flood threshold this morning.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.