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PZZ531 San Francisco Bay South Of The Bay Bridge- 847 Pm Pst Tue Dec 5 2023
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming W after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. A slight chance of rain after midnight.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Areas of fog. Rain.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain likely.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 knots. Rain likely.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 knots.
Fri night..N winds around 5 knots.
Sat..N winds around 5 knots.
Sun..N winds around 5 knots.

PZZ500 847 Pm Pst Tue Dec 5 2023
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries...
moderate to fresh winds developing across the northern outer waters will spread into the central and southern waters by mid Wednesday with winds briefly shifting from nw to s/sw ahead of an incoming cold front. Dense fog is likely for the san francisco bay, san pablo bay, and the delta starting late tonight and will last through mid tomorrow morning. Elevated seas between 12-17 feet will persist through late week as a series of long period northwest swells propagate through the waters, resulting in hazardous conditions for small craft operators. Chances of rain over the waters will begin tonight and continue through the end of the work week.

FXUS66 KMTR 060517 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 917 PM PST Tue Dec 5 2023

New AVIATION, MARINE

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 123 PM PST Tue Dec 5 2023

Rain is on track to arrive early Wednesday morning with lingering post frontal showers into Thursday, bringing beneficial rain to the region. Cold morning temperatures expected at the end of the week.

UPDATE
Issued at 846 PM PST Tue Dec 5 2023

It looks like we are going to have one more night of dense fog.
The conditions are not quite as favorable as the last two nights due to the presence of high clouds and increasing winds ahead of the front Wednesday morning. As such, the area and duration have both been trimmed from the Dense Fog Advisory sent yesterday. The North Bay Valleys are under advisory through 10 AM and the remainder of the advisory area (San Francisco, Coastal North Bay, Bay Shoreline and San Francisco Peninsula Coast) is under advisory from 11 PM tonight through 10 AM Wednesday. There is a chance for fog to reach San Jose and coastal areas along the Monterey Bay, but the confidence is low and an advisory has not been issued for these locations at this time. The Beach Hazard Statement was upgraded to a High Surf Advisory tonight as scheduled. More information on recent buoy reports is in the Beaches section below. Otherwise the forecast remains on track with no significant changes.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 123 PM PST Tue Dec 5 2023

Rain is on track to move from northwest to southeast across the region late tonight and into Wednesday afternoon. Expecting up to 1.00" in coastal North Bay and 0.30-0.60" in the North Bay Valleys.
Meanwhile, the coastal areas of the San Francisco Bay and Santa Cruz Mountains can expect up to 0.50" with the City expecting 0.35".
Elsewhere, generally less than 0.25" is expected with trace amounts for interior Monterey and San Bentio counties. Overall, this will be beneficial rain with no major flooding expected.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 123 PM PST Tue Dec 5 2023

Lingering rain showers will prevail into Wednesday night and Thursday before clearing by Thursday night. Temperatures will also turn colder with the potential for frost/freeze products both Friday morning and moreso Saturday morning, especially across the interior.

Daytime temperatures will struggle to warm beyond the lower 60s for late week (40s/50s in the higher peaks). A subtle warming trend will occur heading into the weekend as high pressure noses into the region.

If planning to go to the beach, be sure to use caution still as the surf zone remains active and turbulent with large northwest swells moving through the coastal CA waters. See BEACHES section below for more detailed info.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 917 PM PST Tue Dec 5 2023

VFR continuing this evening with exception of LIFR at KSTS with 1/4 mile in fog and KHAF showing ceiling 200-300 feet. Cirrus clouds are advancing over the forecast area ahead of increasing upper level jet stream divergence, a frontal band and rain all arriving Wednesday. Forecast tonight is near persistence since there've been no major disruptions to the current air mass, then considerations for timing fog /VLIFR-IFR/ redevelopment take into account 24 hour trends which show where there was fog this morning for example there may be delay in fog redevelopment tonight. Also monitoring cirrus cloud coverage since that may slow radiational cooling to space if the cirrus clouds thicken. The 06z TAFs continue near persistence; will monitor satellite, surface observations, 24 hour temperature and humidity trends to help determine if amendments are needed.

Vicinity of SFO...Moderate to high confidence VFR extends through mid to late evening. Best chance for IFR redevelopment is Wednesday morning though this will depend on cirrus cloud thickness overnight.
Then the incoming frontal band rain arrives along with increasing southerly winds surface and aloft prior to cool frontal passage late Wednesday afternoon, ceiling and visibility Wednesday MVFR.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Moderate to high confidence VFR extends through the evening. Patchy lowering ceilings /MVFR-IFR/ thereafter developing into Wednesday morning. MVFR-VFR Wednesday with light rain arriving in the afternoon and evening.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 902 PM PST Tue Dec 5 2023

Moderate to fresh winds developing across the northern outer waters will spread into the central and southern waters by mid Wednesday with winds briefly shifting from NW to S/SW ahead of an incoming cold front. Dense fog is likely for the San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, and the delta starting late tonight and will last through mid tomorrow morning. Elevated seas between 12-17 feet will persist through late week as a series of long period northwest swells propagate through the waters, resulting in hazardous conditions for small craft operators. Chances of rain over the waters will begin tonight and continue through the end of the work week.

BEACHES
Issued at 559 PM PST Tue Dec 5 2023

A stronger long period northwest swell arrives this evening with waves between 12-14 feet at 17-19 seconds expected through Wednesday. Swell is expected to peak Wednesday morning with peak breaking waves between 18 to 22 feet. Buoys show this swell starting to enter the northern waters with buoy 46014 (Pt. Arena) showing a wave height of 13 feet at 21 seconds and buoy 46214 (Pt. Reyes)
recording wave heights of 13 feet at 20 seconds. A high surf advisory has been issued from 7PM today through 4AM Wednesday for Coastal North Bay, SF Peninsula Coast, Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coasts. A beach hazards statement remains in effect until late Wednesday night from Northern Monterey Bay Coast. Dangerous ocean conditions for inexperienced surfers and swimmers with increased risk of rip current development. Use increased caution if going to the beach as unexpected sneaker waves may sweep people into the water. Avoid rocks and jetties. Avoid steep beaches. Stay farther back from the water and never turn your back on the ocean.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM PST Thursday for CAZ006-505-509- 530.

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for CAZ006-505-508- 509.

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for CAZ506.

Beach Hazards Statement through late Wednesday night for CAZ529.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PST Wednesday for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

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Calaveras Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:41 AM PST     0.89 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:07 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:29 AM PST     7.80 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:58 PM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 02:06 PM PST     2.69 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:49 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:21 PM PST     6.81 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Calaveras Point, west of, San Francisco Bay, California, Tide feet

Dumbarton Point 2.3 mi NE
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:16 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:09 AM PST     1.07 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:07 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:27 AM PST     -0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:24 AM PST     -0.63 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 12:59 PM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 02:09 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:20 PM PST     0.60 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:49 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:02 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:22 PM PST     -0.80 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Dumbarton Point 2.3 mi NE, South San Francisco Bay, California Current, knots

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