Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Montrose, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 315 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly dry tonight, other than a few light showers from south central VA to interior NE NC early this evening.

- Rain overspreads the region from SW to NE Monday, with moderate to locally heavy rain possible across the piedmont.

The latest WX analysis indicates strong (~1030mb) sfc high pressure centered across southern New England, with a weak sfc trough draped across the Delmarva from the MD lower Eastern Shore back NW into the eastern and upper Great Lakes. While high clouds continue to thicken and lower over the region, we're still mainly dry locally other than a few light showers over the coastal plain of E/SE NC. The sfc high to our N has kept us dry for now, but just as 00z RAOBs show PWs have increased to 1.3"-1.6" at GSO/MHX respectively, expect PWs quickly increase through the day today, courtesy of increasing SSW flow aloft.
Expect PWs to increase to 1.50"-1.75" across most of the CWA by aftn.

Showers will be possible over our far S-SW zones toward sunrise Monday morning, as better forcing arrives from the SW. CAMs showing additional showers lifting NNW across the VA piedmont later this morning with increasing SSE low level jet around 30 kt lifting into the area by midday. As better dPVA and diffluent flow aloft lifts across the NC coastal plain, expect showers, move east to the I-95 corridor by the early to mid aftn. Have maintained 70-90% PoPs along and W of I-95 by late afternoon.
Some elevated instability does look to lift across the piedmont this afternoon, so while severe weather is not anticipated, some rumbles of thunder are possible. Best forcing/overrunning moisture doesn't reach the eastern shore until late this evening into the overnight hours, and continue to delay PoPs in the far eastern portion of the area until after 00z/Tue.

Given the lowering clouds and incoming rain, expect that temps likely struggle to get much above 70F over the SW piedmont counties, with mid to upper 70s along and E of I-95 where PoPs remain lower most of the day. While some heavy rain is possible this afternoon (mainly W of I-95 and over interior NE NC), a more widespread moderate to heavy rain appears more likely tonight as the low level jet and best lift look to spread farther to the east. Given this timing, and with rather high flash flood guidance given relatively dry antecedent conditions, have decided against a Flood Watch for now, with the Day 2 ERO Slight more due to expected rain between 00Z Tue-12Z Tue for most areas.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 315 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Periods of rain are expected from tonight through Tuesday night. Confidence continues to increase that much of the region will see a period of moderate to locally heavy rainfall during this period.

Tonight-Tue:

Heaviest rain for the upcoming rain comes late tonight into Tuesday for much of the area, extending into Tuesday evening for the Eastern Shore. Likely to categorical PoPs continue. The closed low over the deep south gradually opens up, but moves slowly into the lower OH Valley by Tuesday night. The attendant surface low lifts slowly over the mid-south tonight into Tuesday, while secondary low pressure develops over the western Carolina. That low then slips NE early Tuesday, reaching central VA by late Tuesday night. The heaviest rainfall is expected to overrun the subtle boundary as it lifts north across the region late tomorrow into Tuesday. Numerous showers (and perhaps a few tstms) are expected Monday night through Tuesday evening. As PWs rise to 1.6-1.8" area- wide, expect widespread rain amounts on the order of 1-2" or more, with heaviest totals expected to be over the SW third of the area from Louisa to South central VA to Edenton. Integrated Water Transport values of 750-900 kg/ms lift across the area as the boundary slips northward Tuesday, which along with the strong isentropic overrunning likely portends the heaviest totals to come during the day on Tuesday.
Given these expected rainfall amounts in addition to rainfall from today/tonight, would expect that at least isolated instances of flash flooding will be an ascending concern on Tuesday, especially in urban and poor drainage areas. The WPC Day 2 Excessive Rainfall outlook has a Slight Risk for all of the CWA west of the Chesapeake Bay Tuesday, while maintaining a Marginal Risk over the Eastern Shore. The latest QPF forecast through 12Z/Wed still averages 2-3" over the SW third of the area, with locally higher totals likely. Lower totals averaging 1.5-2.5" for the rest of the CWA (and ~1" for the MD eastern shore). Highs Tuesday in the upper 60s well inland, and low to mid 70s elsewhere.

Tue night into Wed:

The upper low will weaken into an open wave off to our NW. At the surface, low pressure lifts into the northern mid-Atlantic and a mid-level dry slot lifts across the SE coastal plain from the Carolinas, allowing showers to taper off briefly Tue night into Wed morning. However, while the mid-level flow does weaken (0-6 km bulk shear is 20-25kt at best), expect more scattered to numerous coverage of showers/storms rather than the widespread rain of Tuesday. With that said, the cold pool aloft could help set off a few strong tstms Wed aftn/evening, even with the weak bulk shear. Highs upper 70s to lower 80s Wed.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 305 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Still a chance for a few showers/storms Thursday, but the coverage will be lower than earlier in the week.

- Summerlike warmth and humidity Friday and Saturday, with diurnal tstms possible. Slightly cooler and with lower humidity by Sunday.

Building ridging upstream should allow for a pattern change toward warmer temperatures and perhaps a few diurnally-driven showers storms Thu-Fri afternoon (closer to climo norms). With building heights aloft, and increasingly southerly flow, highs trend into the upper 80s/around 90F Fri-Sat. Dewpoints remain elevated, more typical of summer (upper 60s to lower 70s) which will lead to heat indices potentially into the mid-upper 90s. A front looks to approach from the west by later Saturday, with increasing rain chances Saturday afternoon and evening. Dry and still warm, but with lower humidity in the wake of the front Sunday.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 650 AM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions across all terminals gradually degrades to MVFR later this morning and this afternoon over inland terminals, with the progression to sub-VFR taking a bit longer along the coast and especially at KSBY. Winds are light and variable at sunrise, becoming E-SE 7-10 kt from late morning through the rest of the period. Gradually deteriorating CIGs are expected to spread from SW to NE after from mid to late morning at RIC to early afternoon at ORF/PHF/ECG. Showers also move in from the W-SW this morning, potentially bringing MVFR VSBY by afternoon.
SBY is expected to remain VFR through the 12z TAF period, with MVFR conditions developing late this evening or more likely Tuesday morning.

Outlook: Flight restrictions are likely at all of the terminals other than SBY by this evening. MVFR CIGs degrade to IFR late this evening into early Tuesday, as a warm front lifts through the region. Periodic VSBY restrictions will be possible in heavier showers late tonight and Tuesday. Looking ahead, another round of showers and storms will be possible on Wed aftn/evening, with a few stronger storms possible. A lower coverage of late day showers Thu- Fri.

MARINE
As of 315 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-Small Craft Advisory marine conditions today.

- Widespread Small Craft Advisory conditions expected Tuesday and Tuesday night with increased SE winds and elevated waves/seas.

High pressure extends from the Northeast to Bermuda early this morning, allowing for light SE winds across the local waters with waves/seas aob 2 ft. SE winds increase some to 10-15 kt across all waters later today as the pressure gradient begins to tighten in association with a frontal boundary and low pressure system approaching from the SW. Waves 1-2ft; seas 2-3 ft.

SCA conditions likely develop by daybreak Tuesday across the southern coastal waters, lower Ches Bay and Currituck Sound as SE winds increase to around 20 kt. Winds increase for the remainder of the local waters into Tuesday afternoon but likely hold off in reaching SCA criteria north of Parramore Island until late afternoon. These winds will then persist through late Tuesday evening or the first half of Tuesday night. With the increasing SE flow, seas will also build to 5-7 ft by Tuesday afternoon/evening.
In the Bay, waves will reach 3-4 ft and up to 5 ft at the mouth.
Went ahead and issued SCAs for the all of the local waters, except the coastal waters north of Parramore, with this morning's forecast package. SCAs for the coastal waters south of Cape Charles, the Currituck Sound and the Ches Bay south of New Pt Comfort begin at 6 am Tues
The remainder of the SCAs begin later Tues morning
to around midday for the rivers. Most SCA conditions will be over by early Wed morning as winds lessen and waves/seas subside. However, 5ft seas may linger north of Parramore Island into Wed afternoon.
SCAs north of Parramore Island will be issued later today given that we still have 30+ hrs before the onset of any SCA conditions.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected for all waters by late Wednesday through the rest of the week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630-631-638.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632-634.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory from noon Tuesday to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ635>637.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 4 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ654.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ656-658.