Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gwynn, VA
October 4, 2023 10:55 PM EDT (02:55 UTC)
Sunrise 7:01AM Sunset 6:46PM Moonrise 9:11PM Moonset 11:58AM
ANZ631 Chesapeake Bay From Windmill Point To New Point Comfort Va- 956 Pm Edt Wed Oct 4 2023
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..E winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..E winds 5 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 1 foot, building to 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..E winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..E winds 5 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 1 foot, building to 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ600 956 Pm Edt Wed Oct 4 2023
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers..
quiet marine conditions continue through late week with high pressure in control. A seasonally strong cold front moves through the area Friday night into Saturday with elevated winds, waves, and seas expected from Saturday afternoon through Sunday night.
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers..
quiet marine conditions continue through late week with high pressure in control. A seasonally strong cold front moves through the area Friday night into Saturday with elevated winds, waves, and seas expected from Saturday afternoon through Sunday night.
Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 050101 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 901 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will be centered off to the northeast of the local area tonight and Thursday. A strong cold front will approach from the west on Friday, and will cross the area Saturday, bringing a chance for a few showers. Much cooler and drier conditions prevail Saturday night through much of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 845 PM EDT Wednesday...
The latest analysis shows ~1026mb sfc high pressure continuing to retreat to the NE of the local area, now centered off the coast of New England, with the sfc ridge extending S-SW into the Delmarva. Aloft, the pattern remains highly amplified with anomalous ridging well north into eastern Canada with an upper trough upstream across the Plains states, and another downstream over the north Atlantic (resembling a 50-50 Low).
Skies are mainly clear this evening with temperatures mostly ranging through the 60s. With the sfc high farther off to the NE of the region compared to the past few nights, expect to see a bit more in the way of clouds as onshore flow advects increasing low- level moisture across the coastal plain into Thu morning. While clouds should become broken to overcast, could easily have just enough clearing to allow for some additional areas of ground fog/mist toward morning. Farther inland, clouds will likely hold off until closer to sunrise (except for cirrus streaming in from the west). As such, have added some patchy fog mention to the gridded forecast across much of south central VA and interior NE NC, though it still may be a mix of patchy fog and low stratus towards Thu morning for just about anywhere.
Lows will range from the low-mid 50s in the piedmont to the mid 60s near the coast in SE VA and NE NC.
Partly to mostly cloudy on average for Thursday, with somewhat more humid conditions (aftn dew pts in the 60s). While a few of the models depict some light QPF, think this will tend to stay farther south across NC, with s shallow layer of moisture depicted on BUFKIT soundings. Quite warm once again with high temps in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 240 PM EDT Wednesday...
Surface high pressure moves well offshore ahead of the approaching upper trough and surface cold front Thursday night and Friday. Partly to mostly cloudy Thursday night but remaining dry. Slightly milder Thu night with increased cloud cover.
Overnight lows range through the 60s, mildest along the coast.
One more mild day expected Friday with high temps in the mid to upper 70s. 12z model suite still a bit drier with respect to pre-frontal QPF. Still expect an increase in clouds with some weak warm air advection lifting across the region through Friday. Maintained a slight chance PoP along the coast for a few spotty showers, but expect most remain dry through the afternoon on Fri. Any QPF would be very light, a trace to a few hundredths of an inch at most.
Slight chance PoPs spread NNW Friday evening into early Saturday as the upper trough and the strong sfc cold front approaches from the west with the highest PoPs (25-30%) over the north overnight into Sat morning. Lows range from the upper 50s NW to the low and mid 60s SE.
GFS still showing a mainly dry frontal passage Saturday morning, with the 12z deterministic ECMWF and CMC still a bit wetter and slower with pushing the front through the area. CAMs will be getting into range and allowing a better handle on timing in the next few runs, but for now have capped PoPs in low end chance range, mainly across the northern half of the area. Once again, any QPF would be on the light side. Highs in the mid to upper 60s inland, low to mid 70s SE where the front takes the longest to clear the area. Becoming breezy Sat aftn and evening, with gusts to 20 to 30 mph likely, highest along the coast.
Markedly cooler and drier air spills across the region Saturday night into early Sunday. Lows in the 40s over most inland areas Sat night, though well-mixed boundary layer should hold up temps along the coast to a degree. Breezy with early morning lows Sunday morning in the lower 40s inland, mid to upper 40s along and just east of I-95 corridor, and upper 40s to low 50s along the coast, under a clearing sky.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 240 PM EDT Wednesday...
Anomalously strong upper trough builds east over the northeast CONUS Sunday and lingers for much of next week. This will bring a definitive feel of Autumn to the region from Sunday through much of next week. High temps Sunday only in the low to mid 60s despite considerable sunshine. Sunday night looks to be quite chilly with H85 temps bottoming out near 0 deg C Sun morning.
Went close to NBM 5-10th percentile for lows Sun/Mon, which matches up nicely with expected thickness values for Min Ts.
Early morning lows Monday morning in upper 30s for sheltered areas in the Piedmont, with low to mid 40s elsewhere. Slightly milder upper 40s along the immediate coast. Continued cool and dry through next week with slowly moderating temperatures into the mid 70s by late week, with lows in the 40s to low 50s.
AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 800 PM EDT Wednesday...
VFR conditions across area terminals this evening, with light easterly low level flow. Some SCT-BKN clouds are expected to develop/move in from the Ocean later tonight, spreading inland between 06-12Z. Could also see some patchy fog/low stratus develop after midnight away from the immediate coast. Have included some MVFR VSBYs at SBY/PHF/ECG (TEMPO IFR at PHF). Low For now have indicated the potential for low clouds with SCT wording rather than CIGs given the uncertainty. BKN cloud cover likely remains on Thursday, but expect conditions to become VFR all areas after the early morning period. Easterly winds will avg 5-10kt.
Outlook: A cold front approaches from the W Friday and crosses the area on Saturday bringing a chance for ISO-SCT rain showers (primarily on Sat). Drying out later Saturday, with winds shifting to the W-NW and becoming a bit breezy in the wake of the front through Sunday. VFR Monday.
MARINE
As of 240 PM EDT Wednesday...
High pressure centered off the New England coast continues to ridge SW over the local area through late week. This will result in a prolonged period of light winds over the waters with winds generally out of the NE/E at 5-10 kt this afternoon through Fri. A strong shortwave deepens Fri into Sat as it dives SE into the Great Lakes, eventually lingering over interior New England Sat night into early next week as a cutoff low. At the surface, a low occludes over SE Canada into N New England Sat into Sun, pushing a seasonally strong cold front through the area Fri night into Sat. Behind the cold front, CAA will ramp up with winds becoming NW 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Models continue to differ wrt the timing of the CAA surge. The GFS is the fastest with SCA winds by late Sat morning whereas the Canadian delays winds until the early afternoon while the EURO delays them until the late afternoon/early evening. As such, expect early Sat afternoon as the most likely time of arrival for SCA- level winds. Winds are expected to be the strongest Sat night before diminishing Sun as they become W. Afterwards, winds remain W ~15 kt into Mon, become SW Mon afternoon, and briefly increase to 15-20 kt Mon night. SCAs will be needed for this surge. Additionally, while marginal Gale conditions cannot be ruled out, winds likely remain just below. Otherwise, Tropical Storm Philippe was located N of Puerto Rico this afternoon and is expected to track N through the week and into the weekend, passing near/over Bermuda and remaining well offshore of the local waters before making landfall near the E tip of Maine Sat night. No local impacts outside of high period swells and elevated seas (due mainly to the NW surge of wind) are expected.
Waves and seas were 1-2 ft (2-3 ft at the mouth of the bay) and 3-4 ft this afternoon. Seas are expected to build to 5-7 ft Fri night through Sun night behind the cold front.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 901 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will be centered off to the northeast of the local area tonight and Thursday. A strong cold front will approach from the west on Friday, and will cross the area Saturday, bringing a chance for a few showers. Much cooler and drier conditions prevail Saturday night through much of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 845 PM EDT Wednesday...
The latest analysis shows ~1026mb sfc high pressure continuing to retreat to the NE of the local area, now centered off the coast of New England, with the sfc ridge extending S-SW into the Delmarva. Aloft, the pattern remains highly amplified with anomalous ridging well north into eastern Canada with an upper trough upstream across the Plains states, and another downstream over the north Atlantic (resembling a 50-50 Low).
Skies are mainly clear this evening with temperatures mostly ranging through the 60s. With the sfc high farther off to the NE of the region compared to the past few nights, expect to see a bit more in the way of clouds as onshore flow advects increasing low- level moisture across the coastal plain into Thu morning. While clouds should become broken to overcast, could easily have just enough clearing to allow for some additional areas of ground fog/mist toward morning. Farther inland, clouds will likely hold off until closer to sunrise (except for cirrus streaming in from the west). As such, have added some patchy fog mention to the gridded forecast across much of south central VA and interior NE NC, though it still may be a mix of patchy fog and low stratus towards Thu morning for just about anywhere.
Lows will range from the low-mid 50s in the piedmont to the mid 60s near the coast in SE VA and NE NC.
Partly to mostly cloudy on average for Thursday, with somewhat more humid conditions (aftn dew pts in the 60s). While a few of the models depict some light QPF, think this will tend to stay farther south across NC, with s shallow layer of moisture depicted on BUFKIT soundings. Quite warm once again with high temps in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 240 PM EDT Wednesday...
Surface high pressure moves well offshore ahead of the approaching upper trough and surface cold front Thursday night and Friday. Partly to mostly cloudy Thursday night but remaining dry. Slightly milder Thu night with increased cloud cover.
Overnight lows range through the 60s, mildest along the coast.
One more mild day expected Friday with high temps in the mid to upper 70s. 12z model suite still a bit drier with respect to pre-frontal QPF. Still expect an increase in clouds with some weak warm air advection lifting across the region through Friday. Maintained a slight chance PoP along the coast for a few spotty showers, but expect most remain dry through the afternoon on Fri. Any QPF would be very light, a trace to a few hundredths of an inch at most.
Slight chance PoPs spread NNW Friday evening into early Saturday as the upper trough and the strong sfc cold front approaches from the west with the highest PoPs (25-30%) over the north overnight into Sat morning. Lows range from the upper 50s NW to the low and mid 60s SE.
GFS still showing a mainly dry frontal passage Saturday morning, with the 12z deterministic ECMWF and CMC still a bit wetter and slower with pushing the front through the area. CAMs will be getting into range and allowing a better handle on timing in the next few runs, but for now have capped PoPs in low end chance range, mainly across the northern half of the area. Once again, any QPF would be on the light side. Highs in the mid to upper 60s inland, low to mid 70s SE where the front takes the longest to clear the area. Becoming breezy Sat aftn and evening, with gusts to 20 to 30 mph likely, highest along the coast.
Markedly cooler and drier air spills across the region Saturday night into early Sunday. Lows in the 40s over most inland areas Sat night, though well-mixed boundary layer should hold up temps along the coast to a degree. Breezy with early morning lows Sunday morning in the lower 40s inland, mid to upper 40s along and just east of I-95 corridor, and upper 40s to low 50s along the coast, under a clearing sky.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 240 PM EDT Wednesday...
Anomalously strong upper trough builds east over the northeast CONUS Sunday and lingers for much of next week. This will bring a definitive feel of Autumn to the region from Sunday through much of next week. High temps Sunday only in the low to mid 60s despite considerable sunshine. Sunday night looks to be quite chilly with H85 temps bottoming out near 0 deg C Sun morning.
Went close to NBM 5-10th percentile for lows Sun/Mon, which matches up nicely with expected thickness values for Min Ts.
Early morning lows Monday morning in upper 30s for sheltered areas in the Piedmont, with low to mid 40s elsewhere. Slightly milder upper 40s along the immediate coast. Continued cool and dry through next week with slowly moderating temperatures into the mid 70s by late week, with lows in the 40s to low 50s.
AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 800 PM EDT Wednesday...
VFR conditions across area terminals this evening, with light easterly low level flow. Some SCT-BKN clouds are expected to develop/move in from the Ocean later tonight, spreading inland between 06-12Z. Could also see some patchy fog/low stratus develop after midnight away from the immediate coast. Have included some MVFR VSBYs at SBY/PHF/ECG (TEMPO IFR at PHF). Low For now have indicated the potential for low clouds with SCT wording rather than CIGs given the uncertainty. BKN cloud cover likely remains on Thursday, but expect conditions to become VFR all areas after the early morning period. Easterly winds will avg 5-10kt.
Outlook: A cold front approaches from the W Friday and crosses the area on Saturday bringing a chance for ISO-SCT rain showers (primarily on Sat). Drying out later Saturday, with winds shifting to the W-NW and becoming a bit breezy in the wake of the front through Sunday. VFR Monday.
MARINE
As of 240 PM EDT Wednesday...
High pressure centered off the New England coast continues to ridge SW over the local area through late week. This will result in a prolonged period of light winds over the waters with winds generally out of the NE/E at 5-10 kt this afternoon through Fri. A strong shortwave deepens Fri into Sat as it dives SE into the Great Lakes, eventually lingering over interior New England Sat night into early next week as a cutoff low. At the surface, a low occludes over SE Canada into N New England Sat into Sun, pushing a seasonally strong cold front through the area Fri night into Sat. Behind the cold front, CAA will ramp up with winds becoming NW 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Models continue to differ wrt the timing of the CAA surge. The GFS is the fastest with SCA winds by late Sat morning whereas the Canadian delays winds until the early afternoon while the EURO delays them until the late afternoon/early evening. As such, expect early Sat afternoon as the most likely time of arrival for SCA- level winds. Winds are expected to be the strongest Sat night before diminishing Sun as they become W. Afterwards, winds remain W ~15 kt into Mon, become SW Mon afternoon, and briefly increase to 15-20 kt Mon night. SCAs will be needed for this surge. Additionally, while marginal Gale conditions cannot be ruled out, winds likely remain just below. Otherwise, Tropical Storm Philippe was located N of Puerto Rico this afternoon and is expected to track N through the week and into the weekend, passing near/over Bermuda and remaining well offshore of the local waters before making landfall near the E tip of Maine Sat night. No local impacts outside of high period swells and elevated seas (due mainly to the NW surge of wind) are expected.
Waves and seas were 1-2 ft (2-3 ft at the mouth of the bay) and 3-4 ft this afternoon. Seas are expected to build to 5-7 ft Fri night through Sun night behind the cold front.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMFV ACCOMACK COUNTY,VA | 21 sm | 20 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 57°F | 55°F | 94% | 30.21 |
Wind History from MFV
(wind in knots)Tide / Current for Windmill Point Light, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Windmill Point Light
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:58 AM EDT 1.08 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:02 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 09:15 AM EDT 0.14 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:59 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 03:28 PM EDT 1.30 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:43 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 10:10 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 10:21 PM EDT 0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:58 AM EDT 1.08 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:02 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 09:15 AM EDT 0.14 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:59 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 03:28 PM EDT 1.30 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:43 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 10:10 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 10:21 PM EDT 0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Windmill Point Light, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.6 |
| 1 am |
| 0.8 |
| 2 am |
| 1 |
| 3 am |
| 1.1 |
| 4 am |
| 1 |
| 5 am |
| 0.9 |
| 6 am |
| 0.6 |
| 7 am |
| 0.4 |
| 8 am |
| 0.2 |
| 9 am |
| 0.1 |
| 10 am |
| 0.2 |
| 11 am |
| 0.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.3 |
Windmill Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:55 AM EDT 1.45 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:03 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 09:22 AM EDT 0.50 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:59 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 03:26 PM EDT 1.72 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:43 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 10:10 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 10:26 PM EDT 0.53 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:55 AM EDT 1.45 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:03 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 09:22 AM EDT 0.50 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:59 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 03:26 PM EDT 1.72 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:43 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 10:10 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 10:26 PM EDT 0.53 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Windmill Point, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.9 |
| 1 am |
| 1.2 |
| 2 am |
| 1.4 |
| 3 am |
| 1.4 |
| 4 am |
| 1.4 |
| 5 am |
| 1.2 |
| 6 am |
| 1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.8 |
| 8 am |
| 0.6 |
| 9 am |
| 0.5 |
| 10 am |
| 0.5 |
| 11 am |
| 0.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 1 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.6 |
Wakefield, VA,
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