Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gwynn, VA

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
As of 915 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- A second round of storms is possible after 2-3 AM tonight, which could pose a low-end threat for damaging wind gusts, mainly W of I-95.

Storms have now moved offshore, and the remaining portions of the SVR Tstms Watch have been cancelled. Much cooler and more stable conditions are in place as temperatures have fallen into the upper 60s to lower 70s for most areas. Generally dry conditions prevail under a partly to mostly cloudy sky for the next several hrs.

However, active convection remains strong across the OH/TN Valley, and will progress eastward to the Appalachians after midnight. While low level instability will be minimal, further stabilized by CIN, mid level (700-500 mb) lapse rates remain steep (~7C/Km), along with high values of bulk shear. This should allow at least a broken line/cluster of storms to hold together E of the mountains after ~06Z/2 AM, though the severe potential will be much lower than what occurred with the evening storms. Nevertheless, the Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 5) for the far western counties, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) to approximately the I-95 corridor. The main threat will be strong wind gusts, with a minimal hail threat across the far west. Lows overnight will be close to current readings, averaging in the mid 60s to around 70F.

SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Very warm Saturday with a slight chance of thunderstorms across SE VA and NE NC.

- Drying out later Saturday into Sunday behind a cold front.

Another hot day is ahead for Saturday ahead of a cold front as morning convection should dissipate by 6-9 AM. High temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected, with the warmest temps across the SE. The main change in the forecast for Saturday is the waning confidence in severe wx (and also convective initiation during the aftn) as winds become west and dew pts fall during the aftn (especially inland). Will keep 20% PoPs across SE VA/NE NC to account for additional tstm development between 2-8 PM. There will still likely be a highly conditional severe threat across the SE given strong sfc heating and still decent shear in place. Of course, confidence is low regarding any sort of convective initiation. Given this, SPC has maintained a Level 1 out of 5 (Marginal) severe weather risk near the coast. The main threat would again be damaging winds, with large hail also possible. With drier air filtering in behind the front Saturday night, expect cooler low temps in the lower to mid 60s.

Still quite warm for Sunday/Monday as only modest cold advection occurs behind the front. Highs in the lower to mid 80s both days, warmest across the S and SE and coolest on the Eastern Shore.
Overnight lows Sun night drop into the 50s inland and lower 60s closer to the coast.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled weather returns later Tuesday through Thursday.

- Below average temperatures return by late next week and likely last into next weekend.

Unsettled wx returns for the mid to late week period as an upper level low is progged to track from the Midwest to the east coast from Tuesday through Thursday, before slowly exiting to the NE by Friday/Friday night. While the specifics remain unclear with differences among the deterministic guidance, Tuesday night- Wednesday looks like the wettest period, with a drying trend expected by Thu as cooler air filters in from the NW. With the increased precipitation chances, temperatures trend cooler...and likely below seasonal norms...by Wednesday and Thursday. Below normal temperatures remain favored through the end of the week and looking ahead to Memorial Day weekend.

AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 735 PM EDT Friday...

Strong thunderstorms have pushed east of RIC/SBY/PHF this evening. May continue to see a period of gusty winds behind the convection during the next hour or so at SBY and PHF, then returning to a lighter SW flow. Weakening showers and storms impact ORF and ECG early in the period, which may bring a period of reduced vsbys and gusty winds. A complex of storms to our west and weaken as it approaches late tonight into early Saturday morning. This second round of convection may impact the area (especially RIC/SBY) between 07-12z. Will have VCSH for now given low confidence. Additional showers/storms will remain possible into early Saturday morning. Breezy on Sat with W-WSW winds of 10-15 kt with 20-25 kt gusts. Isolated showers and storms are possible near the coast Saturday afternoon, but PoPs are only ~20%.

Outlook...Prevailing VFR conditions are expected over the weekend into early next week.

MARINE
As of 400 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages...

- SW winds gusting to 20 to 25 kt in the lower Chesapeake Bay/ York/James Rivers and Currituck Sound on Saturday. A small craft advisory is in effect.

- More tranquil marine weather expected Sunday into early next week.

SW winds mostly 10 kt or less across the waters this afternoon with a weak trough across the waters. The main concern through this evening will be the chances for severe thunderstorms and the potential for severe wind gusts. Currently one storm just north of Ocean City that will likely impact the far northern Coastal Waters near the MD/DE waters for the next few hours. However, latest high resolution forecast guidance suggests that strong to severe storms will impact the waters perhaps as early as 5 to 7 pm over the central Chesapeake Bay and 6 to 9 pm over the remainder of the waters. These storms have the potential for wind gusts in excess of 50 kt and large hail as they move through. Any storm threat should exit by 9 to 10 pm.

The pressure gradient picks up over the waters somewhat on Saturday ahead of the cold front. These southwest winds will become rather gusty over land, however some of these 20kt gusts will likely impact the southern Chesapeake Bay, James/York Rivers and Currituck Sound.
As such, have issued a small craft advisory for these areas on Saturday into Saturday evening. SW winds decrease early Saturday evening as the front pushes through. Behind the front, winds gradually turn west then northwest on Sunday. Low pressure then deepens over the Canadian Maritimes Sun night into Monday which should allow for NW winds to increase to around 15 kt across the waters. May need small craft advisories with this northerly surge but there is still some uncertainty. Winds gradually turn to the east by Tuesday as low pressure develops to the west of the area and a frontal boundary stays south of the region.

HYDROLOGY
As of 910 PM EDT Thursday...

All remaining Flood Warnings have been cancelled.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ632-634-636>638.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ633.