Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Gwynn, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:49PM Monday December 9, 2019 1:43 PM EST (18:43 UTC) Moonrise 3:20PMMoonset 4:18AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ631 Chesapeake Bay From Windmill Point To New Point Comfort Va- 1207 Pm Est Mon Dec 9 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 pm est this evening through Tuesday afternoon...
This afternoon..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A slight chance of rain.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers.
Wed..N winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain.
ANZ600 1207 Pm Est Mon Dec 9 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A strong area of low pressure will track across the great lakes region today into Tuesday, dragging a strong cold front across the area Tuesday night. Canadian high pressure builds in for the mid week period with low pressure over the southeast states.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gwynn, VA
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location: 37.56, -76.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 091829 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 129 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. Strong low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes later today and into eastern Canada on Tuesday. The trailing strong cold front crosses the area Tuesday night. High pressure returns late Wednesday and Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 1045 AM EST Monday .

Late morning weather analysis shows upper troughing extending from the nrn Plains to the SW CONUS. WV satellite imagery was showing mid-level moisture streaming from the tropical Pacific to our local area in WSW-SW flow aloft. Additionally, there are several mid-level impulses embedded in the WSW-SW flow aloft. At the surface, a weak coastal trough/frontal boundary was draped across SE VA. North and west of the boundary, temperatures are still in the 40s (while it has warmed to the mid-upper 50s across coastal SE VA/NE NC). Fog from earlier is dissipating (VSBYs are now above 1 mile in most locations), so will not issue another SPS. Rain has largely ended across coastal portions of the CWA, while another area of rain was tracking northeastward across the VA Piedmont (as one of the aforementioned mid-level impulses is crossing the region). The steady rain should continue across the Piedmont (and perhaps clipping part of the Lower MD Ern Shore) through the early-mid aftn hours before becoming more spotty in nature. Mainly dry w/ just a few showers possible in areas S of I-64/E of I-95 through the day today.

Temperatures will slowly warm through the day today, but will struggle to get out of the 40s in the NW Piedmont before the late aftn. Temperatures will warm into the mid 50s-near 60F from the I-95 corridor to the Lower MD Ern Shore by 21z, with 60s across coastal SE VA/NE NC. Overcast skies prevail today, with a few breaks in the clouds likely across SE zones.

Little if any temperature drop tonight due to the SW flow and WAA in place ahead of the cold front approaching the mountains. There is little support for pcpn tonight, but enough lingering moisture exists for a few showers across the north. Looks like a cloudy and mild night with more stratus than fog. Lows in the 50s in most areas/near 60F across SE VA/NE NC.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 335 AM EST Monday .

Tues to the the "in btwn" day with not much occuring until the moisture ahead of the apprchg cold front enters the fa during the aftrn. It starts off cloudy and mild with little support for any pcpn thru 18Z. Clouds break up a bit across the se while shwrs spread east of the mts by late aftrn. Unseasonably warm along with a breezy sw wind. Tuff call on whether the nwrn most zones erode the wedge completely so for now will hold temps in the low-mid 60s there. Otw, temps rise to arnd 70 east of I95 with mid 70s across the se. See CLI section below for record high temps.

The cold front crosses the area Tues night with likely/categorical PoPs through 12z. Models now showing the potential for a pcpn type issue arnd 12Z Wed across the nrn most zones. While the thicknesses crash as the colder air rapidly follows the fropa, sfc and wet bulb temps remain above freezing. Much like the mid Nov event, pcpn intensity will likely determine whether and how much wet snow can mix in with the rain. Thus, adjusted the grids a bit to reflect a svrl hr prd (09Z-15Z) Wed for a rain/wet snow mix. For now, think this occurs btwn 09Z-12Z across Louisa/Fluvanna then btwn 12Z-15Z from Louisa ne to nrn Carolina to Dorchester. No accumls expected attm. Lows Tue nite mid 30s nrn zones to low-mid 40s srn zones.

Likely PoPs Wed morning with decreasing PoPs west to east Wed aftrn as the cold front moves offshore. In fact, wrn zones will likely become ot sunny late. Not much rise in temps given the clouds and CAA. Highs in 40s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 355 PM EST Sunday .

Strong high pressure over the upper Midwest will build into the region Wednesday night. Strong cold advection on northwesterly winds will lead to overnight low temperatures in the low to mid 20s NW, mid to upper 20s for the I-95 corridor, and upper 20s and low 30s for SE VA and NE NC. The aforementioned surface high will become centered over/just north of the local area on Thursday with decreasing clouds and winds. Daytime high temperatures will only make it into the upper 30s and low 40s on Thursday. Models have come into much better agreement and all now keep the area dry on Thursday and Thursday night. Chilly overnight lows range from the low 20s NW to upper 30s SE.

Surface high pressure continues its eastward migration on Friday but will still extend ridging to the SW along and east of the higher terrain. GFS/ECMWF solutions diverge regarding timing for the expected wet period late week into the weekend with the GFS around 12 hours faster than the ECMWF. Will increase PoPs slowly from the south/southwest during the day on Friday but the bulk of the precip is expected to fall Friday night into Saturday as low pressure lifts northward across the region. Given the slower timing, high pressure will have moved well away from the favored area to supply cold/dry air to the region and concerns for mixed precipitation have decreased. High temps on Friday range from the low 40s NW, close to 50 degrees for the Richmond metro, and low to mid 50s for areas east of I-95. Not looking particularly cold behind the weekend system either, highs in the 50s Saturday and Sunday with lows in the upper 30s and low 40s.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 100 PM EST Monday .

While VSBYs have improved some since this morning, IFR/LIFR CIGs still prevail across the VA/MD terminals early this aftn. Conditions at ECG have improved to VFR. Expect conditions to improve to MVFR/VFR by late this aftn at ORF/PHF, but will likely take until 21-00z for CIGs/VSBYs to rise at RIC/SBY. In addition, a large area of rain situated from the VA Piedmont to MD will impact RIC/SBY during the next few hours before the rain becomes more spotty in nature (although a few showers could linger invof SBY through the first part of tonight). VSBYs in the RA will be 1-4SM at RIC/SBY.

Otherwise, the area will be largely rain free tonight into Tue morning. However, MVFR CIGs will be possible (especially at RIC/SBY/PHF) due to low stratus. Fog is not expected to be an issue tonight, due to SW winds increasing to 10-15 kt. Rain chances increase across the area from W to E Tue aftn as a cold front approaches the region. The cold front crosses the area late Tue-Tue night, but a large area of post-frontal light- moderate rain will track across the area Tue night before ending from W to E during the day on Wed. Flight restrictions are likely during this timeframe. There is a chc that pcpn changes over to PL/SN Wed AM before ending at SBY, with a slightly lesser chc of PL/SN at RIC. Not expecting much in the way of impacts from wintry pcpn. Pcpn should stay in the form of RA at the sern terminals. High pressure builds into the area for Wednesday/Thursday, allowing VFR/dry conditions to return.

MARINE. As of 335 AM EST Monday .

Latest analysis shows a warm front that extends northward and parallels the coastal waters. Winds across the coastal waters have already turned S/SE 15-20 kts, while winds across the bay on the other side of the front are still northerly 10-15 kts. Seas are 3-6 ft in the southern coastal waters and 3-4 ft in the northern coastal waters. Waves in the bay are 1-2 ft. The front will continue to advance north and a bit further inland today. Winds over the bay should become southerly this morning as a result. The increasing S/SW flow should bring winds in the bay and southern James up to 15- 20 kts by late Monday night. Winds over the coastal waters will remain S/SW 15-20 kts with gusts around 25 kts. Waves in the bay will build to 2-3 ft by Monday night with around 4 ft at the mouth of the bay. Seas will continue to build and by late Monday night will be 5-8 ft. SCA is now in effect for the coastal waters, and SCA will be issued for the Bay, lower James, and Currituck sound for later tonight through about 18Z Tuesday. Confidence is lower for SCA on the rivers outside of the lower James, so will leave them out for now.

With very warm conditions Tuesday during the day ahead of an approaching cold front, winds over the cold waters will likely diminish a bit (though seas on the coast will remain at or above 5 ft). SCA conditions likely for all zones Tue night/Wed AM as colder air moves in from the North. Potential for stronger winds Wednesday night into Thursday as a secondary cold surge arrives with strong high pressure building in from the North while low pressure lingers over the SE CONUS. Seas will also remain elevated through this period.

CLIMATE. Record highs for 12/10:

RIC . 79 in 2007 ORF . 78 in 2007 SBY . 73 in 1966 ECG . 78 in 2007

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ630>633-638. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658.

SYNOPSIS . MPR NEAR TERM . ERI/MPR SHORT TERM . MPR LONG TERM . RHR AVIATION . ERI MARINE . CMF CLIMATE . AKQ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 6 mi55 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9 1017.9 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 7 mi37 min Calm G 0 -1°F 1018.5 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 24 mi55 min SSW 6 G 6 51°F 1017.4 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 24 mi61 min SW 7 G 9.9 55°F 47°F1017 hPa
44072 26 mi43 min WSW 3.9 G 3.9 49°F 49°F1 ft
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 28 mi61 min S 7 G 8 49°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 30 mi61 min S 5.1 G 7 53°F 49°F1016.6 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 32 mi73 min SW 1.9 52°F 1018 hPa51°F
44042 - Potomac, MD 34 mi37 min 49°F 47°F948 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 35 mi61 min SSW 6 G 7
44087 37 mi43 min 49°F1 ft
CHBV2 37 mi61 min SSW 8 G 8.9
44064 39 mi43 min SW 7.8 G 7.8 55°F 49°F2 ft1016.9 hPa (-3.6)
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 41 mi61 min WSW 5.1 G 6
44041 - Jamestown, VA 42 mi49 min 1016.7 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 44 mi61 min 49°F1017.2 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 44 mi55 min S 8 G 11 62°F 1017.4 hPa
44089 44 mi43 min 50°F7 ft
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 44 mi61 min W 2.9 G 4.1
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 45 mi55 min SSE 5.1 G 5.1
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 46 mi61 min SW 1.9 G 4.1
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 48 mi55 min SSW 6 G 8.9 58°F 1017.2 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA20 mi68 minno data1.75 miFog/Mist58°F57°F97%1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFV

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----Calm--------------------Calm--------------------
1 day ago----NW10--N3N3------------------------------------
2 days ago--SW9--SW9SW10
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------NW7NW5--N5N8
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N8NE10NE5----

Tide / Current Tables for Windmill Point Light, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Windmill Point Light
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:28 AM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:18 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:35 AM EST     1.13 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:19 PM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:20 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:50 PM EST     0.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.20.10.10.20.40.711.11.110.80.60.40.20.10.10.30.50.70.910.90.7

Tide / Current Tables for Windmill Point, Rappahannock River, Virginia (3)
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Windmill Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:35 AM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:18 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:43 AM EST     1.34 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:20 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:26 PM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:58 PM EST     1.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.20.10.10.20.50.81.11.31.31.210.80.50.30.10.10.30.60.91.11.11.10.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.