Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Gwynn, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 8:16PM Thursday July 29, 2021 6:23 PM EDT (22:23 UTC) Moonrise 10:44PMMoonset 10:44AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ631 Chesapeake Bay From Windmill Point To New Point Comfort Va- 504 Pm Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday morning...
Through 7 pm..S winds 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Isolated showers and tstms.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Scattered tstms late in the evening. A chance of showers in the late evening and overnight. A chance of tstms after midnight.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Sun night..S winds 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 504 Pm Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure will track well north of the region later today and tonight. The trailing cold front will cross the area Friday morning, then stall across the carolinas through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gwynn, VA
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location: 37.56, -76.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 291939 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 339 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will track by north of the local area tonight to be followed by its trailing cold front during Fri. The front stalls across the Carolinas by Saturday. Low pressure moves east along the front Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. As of 330 PM EDT Thursday .

Not quite sure how the convective scenario evolves this evening given the continued conflicting model guidance. Warm front now N of the FA . and weak lo pres is expected to move E across far nrn VA and MD. WNW flow aloft can be a signal for strong/svr convection. Certainly there is available heat/moisture available here but the best svr wx parameters may be just N of the FA. Svr watch now out for the lower MD ern shore through 01Z/30 . and if necessary can be expanded S to include VA counties. Tail of mid level S/W now exiting the higher terrain NW of the FA. Highest confidence for ISOLD/SCT tstms right now is mainly N of a WAL-XSA-LKU line through mid/late evening. Wouldn't rule out ISOLD stms popping up further S . for now keeping PoPs AOB 15% across srn/SE VA-NE NC. Any lingering pcpn likely to dissipate after midnight/by late tonight as a cold front enters the far NNW areas. Lows 70-75F.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 310 PM EDT Thursday .

The cold front progresses into/through srn/SE portions of the FA Fri Right now. SPC has MRGL along/S of the Albemarle Sound . still will carry 20-30% far srn/SE VA across NE NC before the frontal passage. Will be another hot/humid day (heat indices topping out around 100F one last day in this stretch) across srn/SE VA and NE NC (pre-frontal passage) while drying/lowering dew points occurs over central/nrn portions. Highs in the u80s-l90s.

Any lingering SHRAs/tstms Fri evening likely to diminish/end early. Period of NNE winds (gusty at the coast) and cold/dry air advection Fri night into Sat ends the recent period of high humidity heading into the weekend. Low Fri night in the l60s N to around 70F far SE.

The front stalls across the Carolinas by Sat. Expecting mostly sunny conditions N and partly sunny S and very comfy for the last day of July Highs in the l80s. u70s right along the coast/beaches.

This time of year . hard to keep the dry/cooler wx here. Hi pres shifts off the SE coast of New England Sat night leading to a quick return of moisture from the SSW. A series of lo pres systems forecast to moves along the stalled front (across NC). Increasing PoPs to 50-70% (mainly SHRAs) for late Sat night into Sun afternoon along w/ widespread clouds. Lows Sat night mainly in the m-u60s. Highs Sun in the 70s to l80s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 100 PM EDT Thursday .

Unsettled wx conditions expected early/mid next week as trough aloft amplifies through Great Lakes and OH/TN Valleys. Initially a frontal boundary is forecast to push just offshore Sun night/Mon then due to the trough digging in to the W of the FA . the front would likely back WNW into the local area through mid week. The overall pattern setting up is fairly typical for mid Summer (and fits an MJO forecast of a transition from phase 6 to phases 8 and 1 - favoring BLO normal temps and near-ABV normal pcpn) and usually leads to a few/several days of high potential for SHRAs/tstms and psbl heavy rainfall. Have capped PoPs at 50% through the period.

Nighttime lows through the period mainly from the m60s to around 70F. Highs Mon 80-85F. Highs Tue in the l80s. Highs Wed and Thu in the l-m80s.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 1245 PM EDT Thursday .

VFR conditions expected for the majority of the 18Z/29 TAF forecast period. Convection is expected develop by late this afternoon (after 19-21Z/29) w/ the highest prob being at SBY and RIC through this evening. Local MVFR/IFR in heavy rain along w/ gusty winds due to any stms. SSW winds mainly BLO 10 kt. ISOLD/SCT convection expected to wane overnight as a cold front enters the FA from the NW. Additional stms are psbl Fri afternoon across SE VA-NE NC as that cold front pushes SE . OTW VFR.

Generally VFR Fri night/Sat though NNE winds become gusty near the coast. Lo pres tracking across NC Sun may result in IFR/MVFR conditions and psbl SHRAs.

MARINE. As of 320 PM EDT Thursday .

A cold front moves over the local waters late tonight into Friday. Ahead of the front, winds are S/SW 10-15 kt, becoming SW 15-20 kt late this evening into tonight. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay, Lower James, and Currituck Sound from 8 PM through most of the night. As the cold front moves through late tonight through Fri morning, winds shift to NW/N 10-15 kt, remaining N 10-15 kt through Fri night. Winds may approach SCA criteria with the CAA surge late Fri night into early Sat, but for now, expect winds to remain around 15 kt. Winds switch from NE 5-10 kt to SE Sat into Sat night, remaining SE 10-15 kt through Sun. Another cold front comes through Sun night with winds shifting back to N Mon.

Waves of 1-2 ft and seas of 2-3 ft build to 2-3 ft and 3-4 ft respectively overnight before subsiding back to 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft by Fri afternoon through early next week. Seas may approach or briefly touch 5 ft tonight, but confidence is too low to issue a SCA at this time.

Moderate rips expected Sat.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ631>634-638. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630.

SYNOPSIS . MPR NEAR TERM . ALB SHORT TERM . ALB LONG TERM . ALB AVIATION . ALB/MPR MARINE . RMM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 6 mi54 min S 11 G 12 1012 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 7 mi48 min SW 7.8 G 9.7 85°F 83°F1 ft1011.6 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 24 mi54 min WSW 13 G 16 87°F
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 24 mi54 min SSW 12 G 14 83°F 86°F1011.6 hPa
44072 26 mi48 min SW 9.7 G 9.7 84°F 82°F1 ft
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 28 mi54 min SSW 5.1 G 6 78°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 30 mi54 min WSW 8 G 11 87°F 82°F1011 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 32 mi54 min Calm 89°F 1012 hPa77°F
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 35 mi54 min SW 8 G 8.9 86°F 84°F1010.1 hPa
CHBV2 37 mi54 min W 8 G 8.9 85°F 1010.7 hPa
44087 37 mi58 min 83°F1 ft
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 41 mi54 min WSW 9.9 G 12 86°F 1011.7 hPa
44041 - Jamestown, VA 42 mi42 min S 9.7 G 14 86°F 1011.6 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 44 mi54 min WSW 11 G 12 87°F 1011.9 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 44 mi54 min S 11 G 16 87°F 1012 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 44 mi54 min 81°F1011.8 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 45 mi54 min SSW 9.9 G 12
44089 45 mi58 min 76°F2 ft
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 46 mi54 min S 16 G 18 83°F 85°F1010.1 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 48 mi54 min SW 9.9 G 16 89°F 1011.7 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA20 mi1.8 hrsS 910.00 miFair84°F72°F67%1012.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFV

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4SE4--CalmE5--E3Calm----E4CalmCalmSE4--S3--SE7S6S11
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1 day agoS6--S6--S3S4S3S3--Calm--Calm--W3W3W3N4N5N4--E4--SW5SE4
2 days ago--S4----SW8--NW3----W3--CalmW3SW3W5W7------S3----SE6S6

Tide / Current Tables for Windmill Point Light, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Windmill Point Light
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Thu -- 03:22 AM EDT     1.06 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:54 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:53 PM EDT     1.10 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:28 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.70.91.110.90.70.50.30.10.10.20.40.60.911.110.90.70.50.30.20.2

Tide / Current Tables for Windmill Point, Rappahannock River, Virginia (3)
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Windmill Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:30 AM EDT     1.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:01 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:01 PM EDT     1.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:35 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.81.11.21.21.10.90.60.30.20.10.20.40.711.21.31.21.10.80.60.30.20.2

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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