Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Deltaville, VA

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Deltaville, VA

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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 290012 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 812 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure just of the Carolina coast will move northward and stall over the area through Tuesday. This will bring unsettled conditions with rain and a few thunderstorms through the remainder of the holiday weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
As of 810 PM EDT Sunday...

Latest sfc analysis reveals high pressure to the N with ~1009 mb sfc low pressure over S central NC. Aloft, an upper level closed low is still slowly pushing eastward over the S Appalachians and will slowly move E tonight. The surface low will progress NNW tonight, stalling along the VA/NC border overnight as the parent upper low pushes across the Carolinas.
Meanwhile, the sfc warm front will lift N overnight into S VA.
Scattered light showers will continue through tonight with the greatest chances shifting W with time. In addition, drizzle/fog has developed and will continue through the night with reduced visibilities to 0.5-1.5 SM at times for the S and E two thirds of the FA. The lowest visibilities are expected to be along the coast where marine fog has already begun to push onshore. Fog will gradually lift N late tonight into Mon morning.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 355 PM EDT Sunday...

Unsettled conditions will continue for Memorial Day through midweek as the upper low becomes increasingly vertically-stacked with time through early Tue, and lingers just to our SSW. Showers to begin the day on Monday diminish along the coast, and will mostly be limited to areas W of I-95. As peak heating occurs, showers will likely become more widespread in the mid to late afternoon Monday. CAMs remain generally supportive of MLCAPE values 750-1000 J/kg, maximized mainly over the E VA coastal plain into E NC. While shear values aren't expected to be enough of a factor for widespread stronger storms, steepening mid-level lapse rates and increasing instability could be enough for a few thunderstorms, with gusty winds and (primarily) locally heavy rainfall as the main threats.

Showers will continue to be likely across the northern half of the FA Mon night. Expect showers to be more widely scattered Tuesday morning before picking up again Tuesday afternoon in the southern half of the FA. Showers will then taper off Tuesday night.

Highs on Monday will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s inland, with upper 70s SE VA/NE NC where some breaks in the overcast are likely in the quasi-warm sector. Showers decrease in coverage Monday night into Tuesday, as CAD airmass to the north gets reinforced into Tuesday. Similar temps expected Tuesday where highs will range from the upper 60s inland and on the Eastern Shore to the upper 70s in the far SE. Lows both nights will be in the upper 50s across the northern half and low 60s across the southern half.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 355 PM EDT Sunday...

Cut off upper lows are always very slow to move out, and this one is no exception. 12z/28 models are still supportive of the upper low lingering over the area through Wed night, before finally exiting offshore on Thursday as the trough currently over the SW states gives it a push. With the upper low overhead, expect continued showers into Wednesday, especially during peak heating from the late afternoon into early evening. Thursday into Friday, the upper ridge over the Great Lakes slowly starts to retrograde westward into the Plains, but this will leave a weakness in the upper pattern over the region. This will likely allow for some showers and storms to PoP up in the afternoon and evening hours Thu- Saturday. PoPs are in the 15-30% range these afternoons.

High temperatures will still be a bit below normal Wed as NE flow continues. Highs will range from low 70s to upper 70s from NW to SE.
Guidance rebounds, but continues to lower slightly Thu-Sat into the low 80s Thu and mid- upper 80s on Friday before dropping back into the 70s to near 80 on Saturday as the upper trough deepens once again across the region.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 805 PM EDT Sunday...

Mainly IFR/LIFR CIGs tonight across the terminals apart from MVFR CIGs at SBY/ECG over the next few hours as low pressure over S central NC slowly lifts N. In addition, fog/drizzle has developed over much of the area (in addition to the off and on light showers) this evening and will result in deteriorating VIS overnight (IFR/LIFR). The lowest VIS will be along the coast where marine fog moves in with VIS 1/2SM possible. Fog should improve by late morning as some partial clearing moves in. CIGs also improve by mid morning to early afternoon with a return to MVFR CIGs expected during the afternoon. Instability increases Mon afternoon with the cloud breaks and as such, expect off and on showers with isolated thunderstorms Mon afternoon and evening. IFR CIGs/VIS will again be possible Mon evening/night.
Winds remain generally NE/E 5-10 kt through Mon, becoming E by Mon afternoon for most terminals. SBY may see slightly stronger winds Mon afternoon (E 10-15 kt).

Outlook:

Unsettled pattern continues through at least mid- week, which may lead to additional periodic flight restrictions.

MARINE
As of 710 PM EDT Sunday...

Low pressure is centered across eastern NC and is slowly weakening this evening. Winds are still elevated at 10-20kt with higher gusts over most of the region, but have trended down and shifted to the E-SE for NC waters. Extended SCAs through 10pm for the upper rivers, with the rest of the Bay/lower James in effect through 10pm or 1 am. Have extended the coastal waters until 7 AM Mon morning, due to elevated seas. Some locally dense fog seen on cameras despite 15-20kt winds. Have raised a Marine Dense Fog through 10pm for the VA coastal waters between Parramore and the VA-NC border as well as the lower Bay/lower James. Uncertain as to how widespread the fog will be later tonight so will re-evaluate prior to 10 pm.

Low pressure lingers in vicinity of the Carolinas then offshore during the early to middle portion of the upcoming. Some enhancement of an ENE wind is expected across at least the northern two thirds of the marine area Mon night/Tue, as high pressure builds SE from Atlantic Canada to off the New England coast, with SCA conditions possible for the Bay N of New Point Comfort, and the ocean N of Cape Charles Light with seas building to 4-6ft. Benign marine conditions are expected later in the week as low pressure dissipates across the region.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 800 PM EDT Sunday...

The rip risk will be Moderate for Memorial Day due to lingering swell and waves of 3-4 ft.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630>632-635>638.
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632-634- 638-654-656.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ634.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA

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Airport Reports

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Link to 5 minute data for KFYJ

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Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Stingray Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia

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