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ANZ654 Coastal Waters From Parramore Island To Cape Charles Light Va Out 20 Nm- 659 Am Edt Sat Sep 23 2023
.tropical storm warning in effect...
Overnight..Tropical storm conditions expected. NE winds 35 to 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Seas 12 to 14 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Rain late this evening and early morning. A slight chance of tstms, then rain with a chance of tstms late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late this evening and early morning.
Sat..Tropical storm conditions expected. E winds 30 to 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 14 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds. Rain with a chance of tstms until late afternoon, then a chance of rain and tstms late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late in the morning.
Sat night..Tropical storm conditions possible. S winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 11 to 13 ft, subsiding to 9 to 11 ft after midnight. Dominant period 10 seconds. A chance of tstms early in the evening. A chance of rain until early morning.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 to 9 ft, subsiding to 5 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Dominant period 9 seconds.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds.
Mon..NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mainly se swell. Dominant period 8 seconds.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds.
Tue..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. A chance of showers.
Wed..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. A chance of showers.
Wed night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. A chance of showers.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 659 Am Edt Sat Sep 23 2023
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers..
troical storm ophelia is expected to make landfall in north carolina early Saturday morning. This system will bring substantial marine impacts, including tropical storm- force winds and high seas, to all local waters.

FXUS61 KAKQ 231335 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 935 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

SYNOPSIS
Tropical Storm Ophelia continues to track north towards and into the area through tonight, bringing widespread heavy rain and strong gusty winds to the region. Unsettled weather continues in the wake of Ophelia through much of the week ahead.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 935 AM EDT Saturday...

Tropical Storm Ophelia made landfall at 620 AM this morning at Emerald Island, NC. Ophelia continues to move NNW before turning to the N this afternoon. Winds have diminished this morning due to a brief slackening of the sfc pressure gradient winds, but expect winds to increase once again by around noon into this afternoon as Ophelia lifts toward the area.

Rainfall totals thus far are in the 2-4" range south of US-58 in southeast VA/east of US-13 in eastern NC. This is in addition to ongoing coastal flood concerns in many of these same areas (see the coastal flood section below). As additional rain bands pivot inland, expect higher rain totals to push west into areas around and just east of I-95 over south central VA. The main change to the forecast this morning was shifting the higher PoPs further SE due to the rain bands staying closer to the center of the storm this morning. Tropical moisture will be funneled north into the region later this morning and this afternoon, as strong 800-1000 kg/m/s Integrated Water Transport (IVT) lifts north into the area later this morning through this afternoon, in the presence of PW values in the 1.8-2.2". This portends several rounds of heavy rainfall over the I-95 corridor from interior NE NC up into the RIC metro area, with the heaviest rainfall occurring along the theta-e ridge on the northern periphery of the decaying circulation of Ophelia. WPC has the Richmond Metro area/Tri-Cities area into Northampton (NC)
in a Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall (ERO). Rainfall totals have been nudged upwards slightly along the I-95 corridor but are still in the 4-6" range for the RIC metro south to Emporia and Roanoke Rapids, NC. Slightly lower totals on either side of this axis of heavier rainfall, but additional rainfall of 2-4" expected for most of our area through early Sunday morning.

Besides the ongoing flooding and wind threats, still have a marginal risk for a transient tornado or two through this afternoon E of I-95 along the occluded front and in an area of ~70F dewpoints. SPC has maintained a marginal risk for this reason.

Temps as of 930 AM ranged from the mid 50s NW to mid 70s SE with CAD showing up nicely in both temps and dews (Emporia had a 61F dewpoint while Suffolk had a 73 degree dewpoint). High temps in the lower to mid 60s W and upper 70s E. Rain tapers off first across the SE late this afternoon, and then from S to N late tonight into Sun morning as drier air pushes in behind Ophelia.
Rain chances slowly drop off through the overnight hours, but remaining partly to mostly cloudy with lows in the upper 50s W to upper 60s E, and Sat night in the upper 50s W and mid 60s E.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 315 AM EDT Saturday...

The remnants of Tropical Storm Ophelia weaken quickly on Sun as it lifts N out of the FA. However, remnant low looks to linger near the Eastern Shore Sunday into early Mon as high pressure slowly builds back S from Canada into New England. This will keep the area locked in considerable cloud cover with some spotty showers possible, especially across the northern half of the FA. Highs Sunday in the mid to upper 60s far NW to lower 80s SE with some partial clearing. Lows Sun night in the mid 50s W to mid 60s E Sun night.

By early Monday, the remnant low of Ophelia lingers near the Eastern Shore as high pressure slowly builds back S from Canada into New England. As such, it will remain unsettled with plentiful clouds across the N half of the FA and partial clearing across the S half.
Cannot rule out isolated light showers across far N portions of the area continuing into Monday afternoon/evening (with the highest chance over the Eastern Shore). Highs on Monday range from the upper 60s to lower 70s north to the upper 70s to around 80 across the south (where we see more clearing). Remaining unsettled (especially north) Monday night as the remnant low pivots back to the SE. As a result, have chance PoPs spreading from N to S through the night, but overall rain amounts should remain light. Lows Monday night will generally range from the upper 50s to lower 60s (mid 60s further SE/at the coast).

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 315 AM EDT Saturday...

The extended period is still trending unsettled, though there remains a large degree of variability among the global models.
Aloft, troughing remains over the E w/ potentially a closed upper low forming over the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas by the end of the week. The 500 mb map looks very characteristic of an omega block during this time. The surface pattern will be dominated by strong (1035+ mb) and persistent high pressure to our N, which will ridge southward into the area into midweek. This will favor a CAD situation for our inland areas and potential low pressure formation off the coast. In fact, the GFS indicates the remnant vorticity of TS Ophelia may have some association w/ this midweek system. The ECMWF remains less extreme and doesn't develop a closed low, but still maintains unsettled/wet conditions. Either way, tightened pressure gradient continues onshore flow and moist low-level flow off of the water. PoPs have been raised through most of next week to 30-40% (not any higher at this time due to uncertainty) with temps trending lower inland where the CAD will be most pronounced. 60s for highs will be common across the W and NW, with 70s probable across the SE. These temps could be lower along the coast if widespread precip develops in the wake of onshore flow. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s (lowest W away from the water).

AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 315 AM EDT Saturday...

Tropical Storm Ophelia continues to lift N and eventually across the region through Sun, bringing a prolonged period of possible heavy rain, reduced CIGs and VSBYs. Periods of rain, moderate to heavy at times will continue over the terminals into Sat night, with axis of heaviest rainfall shifting toward RIC-PHF and points SSW today. CIGs will be lower MVFR or IFR through this period. NE winds will increase this morning, as Ophelia approaches the area. Winds increase to 20-25 kt with gusts ~35 kt inland and 40-45 kt near the coast. Winds become N at RIC this morning, but remain NE for the rest of the terminals.
Expect a strong NE or E wind Sat morning, to become SE or S at PHF/ORF/ECG this aftn into Sat night, while gradually diminishing.

MARINE
As of 330 AM EDT Saturday...

Tropical Storm Ophelia is track northwest towards the southern NC coast, and will be making landfall early this morning. Winds have come down slightly this morning across North Carolina and southern Virginia waters, but remain strong north of Cape Henry.
Winds will diminish farther north as later this morning.
Southerly winds will increase today as TS Ophelia track north towards, then across the area.

As TS Ophelia tracks NW across eastern NC this morning, there will be an increased threat for waterspouts (especially across the southern Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Ocean coastal waters south of Parramore Island, VA). The center of TS Ophelia is forecasted to move north across the western portion of the Albemarle Sound on Saturday afternoon. This will be the time when the wind will become SSE and increase across northern NC and southern VA waters to 30-35 kt with gusts 45-50 kt. The tropical storm will quickly weaken as the center move into southeast VA and track north inland of the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay. A southerly wind increases farther north as the center of the storm moves north with SSE winds at 30-35 kt with gusts 40-45 kt. The wind then quickly decreases later Saturday aftn into Saturday night as the storm weakens over the area. The storm moves NE of the area by Sunday. The will likely remain very elevated as they turn SW and W on the backside, before gradually subsiding by Sunday evening and Monday.

Seas will be 15-20 ft. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay will be 6-9 ft, but even higher (9-11 ft) at the mouth of the bay.

Strong high pressure builds N of the region Tuesday through mid to late next week, with the potential for at least an inverted trough developing off the Carolina coast. Therefore, a NE wind is expected to return with the current forecast depicting 15-25kt with seas of 5- 8ft.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 345 AM EDT Saturday...

Storm Surge Warnings remain in effect for the Virginia Tidewaters and northeast North Carolina. In addition, Coastal Flood Warnings remains in effect for the Rappahannock/York/James rivers in areas west of the Storm Surge Warning (to Tappahannock/West Point/Hopewell) for moderate to perhaps locally major flooding, which corresponds to 1 to locally 3 feet of inundation AGL in vulnerable areas. Lastly, the CFAs have been upgraded to Coastal Flood Warnings for the MD Eastern Shore (both the bay and ocean side) for moderate to perhaps locally major flooding.

Many locations across Hampton Roads have reach moderate to major flooding with Saturday morning's high tide. This will likely be the highest waters levels for this event. The next high tide cycle Saturday afternoon may be just as high, but most likely a half of foot or one foot lower. The Albemarle Sound and Currituck Sound will likely have a push of water as the low moves northward on Saturday when winds turn to the S-SE, bringing the potential for 2-4 ft of inundation AGL in vulnerable areas from Edenton to Elizabeth City and points east.
Even the western part of the Albemarle sound may see a push of water due to the N-NE winds. This will be a prolonged event for all areas, with the low tide Saturday morning struggling to drop below flood stage. Moderate to major tidal flooding will likely continue through the high tide cycle Sat aftn/evening. Water levels in the upper bay (and Atlantic coast of MD) will likely peak during the aftn/evening high tide cycle on Sat. There should be an appreciable drop in water levels by Sat night-Sun AM in the lower bay and SE VA/NE NC coast as winds subside, but levels will be very slow to drop in the upper bay (w/ moderate flooding expected in spots through Sunday).

In general, have not made much in the way of changes to the forecast even though the 12z/22 ETSS guidance is about 0.2-0.5 feet lower than the overnight guidance. This is because we are still expecting very strong NE winds shifting to the S-SE (and water levels have overperformed with respect to ETSS forecasts when we have had very strong NE winds in past events).

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Tropical Storm Warning for MDZ021>025.
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for MDZ021>025.
Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM EDT Sunday for MDZ021>023.
Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT Sunday for MDZ024-025.
NC...Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for NCZ012.
Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ013>017-030>032-102.
VA...Tropical Storm Warning for VAZ075>078-084>086-089-090-092-093- 095>100-523>525.
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for VAZ075>078-085-099.
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for VAZ048-060>062-064>069- 079>083-087-088-509>522.
Flood Watch through late tonight for VAZ084-086-089-090-092- 093-095>098-100-523>525.
Coastal Flood Warning until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ076- 081>083-518-521-522.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

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Wachapreague Inlet (inside)
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Sat -- 02:19 AM EDT     3.35 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:20 AM EDT     0.96 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:50 PM EDT     4.24 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:48 PM EDT     0.74 feet Low Tide
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Wachapreague Inlet (inside), Virginia, Tide feet

Metompkin Inlet
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Sat -- 02:45 AM EDT     3.11 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:29 AM EDT     0.84 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:16 PM EDT     3.94 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:57 PM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
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Metompkin Inlet, Virginia, Tide feet

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