Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wachapreague, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 345 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Flood Watch has been extended through late tonight and expanded for most of our VA counties just inland of the Chesapeake Bay.

- Gusty winds and heavy rainfall will accompany the convection this afternoon and evening.

Stagnant pattern persists across the region today. Low stratus and fog will be a concern again this morning before mixing gets underway, especially in inland locations that received copious rainfall the last few days. The weak boundary that has been the focus for convection has lost much of its definition with SE winds noted across the whole region early this morning. Convergence along the dissipating boundary may be enough to trigger early afternoon convection once again. Latest guidance favors renewed convection along a sharpening lee trough late this afternoon into the overnight. Slightly stronger flow aloft with this feature results in a bit faster motion for the storms this evening. Given the very heavy rainfall over the last few days, continued PWATs around 2", and very low flash flood guidance, have extended the Flood Watch into the late evening tonight. Further extensions/expansions eastward are possible depending on how convection evolves this afternoon as most of the guidance keeps showers and storms going well into the overnight hours. Areas to the east of the Flood Watch have not seen as much precip of late but the potential for heavy rain will overspread these regions tonight with localized flash flooding possible in any location where slow-moving storms can train over the same area. WPC has included most of the area in a slight ERO with a marginal ERO for far SE VA and NE NC. Ample instability will be present after heating gets underway this morning into the afternoon with MLCAPE around 2500 J/Kg. Weak shear will favor pulse convection with somewhat greater (linear) organization possible for the evening storms. Gusty winds from water-loaded downdrafts are the main severe threat. Some trees may come down due to saturated soils in these gusty winds. SPC has the NW half of the area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for strong winds but locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding are the main threat once again today. Temperatures range from the mid and upper 80s (Eastern Shore) to the upper 80s and low 90s for the remainder of the area. Muggy tonight with lows in the 70s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 345 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled pattern continues into Tuesday and Wednesday with additional rounds of showers and storms as the front stalls NW of the area.

The front stalls well NW of the area on Tuesday, with yet another day of showers and storms and the potential for heavy rainfall and gusty winds. More clouds through the day result in cooler high temps, generally in the mid 80s inland with upper 80s along the coast. Highest PoPs are favored over the Piedmont, tapering to chance along the coast. WPC has the region in a marginal ERO for Tuesday at the moment but would not be surprised to see a slight ERO expanded eastward into the local area in subsequent forecasts.
Anomalously high PWATs remain in place but lack of a low level trigger for convection and slowly rising heights aloft lends some uncertainty to convective coverage and timing. That said, it won't take much QPF to cause flooding in areas that have been drenched over the last few days.

A similar pattern continues into Wednesday with a bit more flow aloft possible during the afternoon and evening as a short wave in the SW flow aloft potentially moves across the region. No real changes in the airmass through Wednesday with PWATs remaining around 2" so the threat for localized heavy rainfall and gusty winds persists.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 345 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Heat and humidity build late in the week with Heat Advisories possible.

Upper ridging east of Florida builds northward into our area Thursday into the weekend. Lower shower and storm chances are forecast as heights aloft continue to build. Will maintain chance PoPs during this period but expect convective coverage will be much less than earlier in the week. Temperatures warm back into the low 90s Thursday and mid 90s by Friday. Afternoon heat indices creep back into Heat Advisory range (105+) mainly for the eastern half of the area on Thursday and a majority of the area on Friday. Slightly cooler (low 90s) on Saturday and Sunday but low level moisture ticks up so additional heat headlines are possible, especially across the south.

AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 235 AM EDT Monday...

Complicated aviation forecast this morning with a mix of flying condition across the region. TAF sites are all VFR for now but expect MVFR and IFR to overspread the area in the next few hours. Highest confidence in IFR CIGs is at RIC. ORF and ECG have prevailing MVFR with TEMPO groups to cover IFR toward sunrise. Light and variable winds this morning become S or SE into this afternoon. Another round of showers and storms are likely this afternoon and evening. Included PROB30 groups at each terminal this afternoon. Another round of precip is also possible after 00z tonight but lower confidence in timing and location.

Outlook: Additional scattered to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected to recur Tue-Wed, along with the potential for early morning fog/stratus. Shower/storm coverage is forecast to be a bit lower late in the week.

MARINE
As of 345 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions continue through Wednesday outside of local influences from afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

- Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible Wednesday night into Thursday, mainly across the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River.

High pressure is centered off the coast of Nova Scotia early this morning, with weak low pressure and a trailing front well off the MD/VA coast. Meanwhile, subtropical high pressure is centered S of this front, with a trough lingering well inland. The wind is primarily SE 5-10kt with seas 1-2ft and waves in the Ches. Bay ~1ft.
The subtropical high builds off the Southeast coast today through the middle of the week. The wind becomes SSE and remains 5-10kt through early aftn, before increasing to 10-15kt by mid-aftn to early evening, and then becomes SW 5-10kt tonight. Seas remain ~2ft today into tonight, with waves in the Ches. Bay building to 1-2ft this aftn and evening, before subsiding to ~1ft later tonight.
Similar conditions continue Tuesday with a mid-aftn to early evening sea-breeze influenced shift to SSE 10-15kt, before becoming SW 8- 12kt Tuesday night. The wind will mainly be SSW 10-15kt Wednesday with high pressure continuing to prevail offshore. Seas remain ~2ft Tuesday and build to 2-3ft Wednesday, with waves in the Ches. Bay 1ft to occasionally 2ft. The pressure gradient tightens Wednesday night into Thursday as low pressure tracks NE of the Great Lakes into the St. Lawrence Valley. This will potentially bring SCA conditions as a SW wind increases to 15-20kt across the Ches. Bay and lower James. The wind diminishes by Friday as the pressure gradient relaxes due to a weakening front dropping to the region.
Seas build to 3-4ft (2-3ft nearshore) by Wednesday night and Thursday, with 2-3ft waves in the Ches. Bay.

Isolated to scattered aftn/evening showers/tstms will continue much of the week. The main hazards with tstms will be brief strong wind gusts, frequent lighting, and reduced vsby in heavy rain.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069- 075-076-079>083-087-088-509>522.
MARINE...None.