Saturday, February27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wachapreague, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 5:58PM Saturday February 27, 2021 4:57 PM EST (21:57 UTC) Moonrise 6:26PMMoonset 7:08AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ654 Coastal Waters From Parramore Island To Cape Charles Light Va Out 20 Nm- 406 Pm Est Sat Feb 27 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 pm est this evening...
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 5 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft after midnight. Mainly se swell. Dominant period 8 seconds. A chance of showers early this evening, then a slight chance of showers late this evening and overnight. Patchy fog late this evening and overnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds. Patchy fog until late afternoon. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm until late afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Rain likely after midnight.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Rain in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Mon night..NW winds 10 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds.
Tue..N winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se late in the evening, then becoming S 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds.
Wed..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed night..NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
ANZ600 406 Pm Est Sat Feb 27 2021
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A weak cold front will drop into the area tonight. Low pressure will track along this boundary late tonight into Sunday morning. This front will lift back to the north as a warm front Sunday afternoon. A stronger cold front will cross the area from the northwest late Sunday night into Monday morning. Canadian high pressure returns Monday night through Tuesday, before another system potentially impacts the region Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wachapreague, VA
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location: 37.58, -75.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 272101 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 401 PM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. A weak cold front will drop into the area tonight. Low pressure will track along this boundary late tonight into Sunday morning. This front will lift back to the north as a warm front Sunday afternoon. A stronger cold front will cross the area from the northwest late Sunday night into Monday morning. Canadian high pressure returns Monday night through Tuesday, before another system potentially impacts the region Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 400 PM EST Saturday .

The latest WV imagery shows zonal flow aloft over the Mid- Atlantic region between a trough over the Upper Midwest and a ridge off the FL coast. At the surface, low pressure is moving across southern Quebec, with a cold front trailing back into the Eastern Great Lakes, and a warm front extending to the S into New England. Theoretically, this should place the local area within the warm sector. However, a moist frontal band embedded in the mid-level zonal flow has maintained an 8-10kft deck of cloud cover over most of the area aside from SE VA and NE NC, with even some areas of light rain lingering from central VA to the Eastern Shore. Therefore, the shallow low-level cool airmass has been slow to erode across most of the area. Temperatures this afternoon range from the upper 40s to mid 50s for much of the area, with 60s for far SE VA/NE NC, and nearing 70F on the northern shore of the Albemarle Sound.

The cold front drops down from the N tonight and is expected to settle from central VA to the Eastern Shore around and after 06z. Surface low pressure along the front, and a region of deeper moisture and lift associated with a mid-level shortwave trough then track across the area late tonight into Sunday morning. This will bring another round of rain (mainly along and N of a Farmville to Richmond to Wallops Is. line). Stratus is expected to develop over much of the area tonight, and some marine fog is possible, which could push onshore as the wind becomes more easterly. Forecast lows tonight are mainly in the mid 40s to around 50F. A warm front will attempt to lift north of the area Sunday. At this time, clouds are expected to be slow to clear across the N with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s, while farther S highs are expected to reach the upper 60s to low 70s (with some mid 70s possible given enough sun over interior SE VA and NE NC). PoPs should diminish Sunday afternoon given the loss of deeper moisture and lift, although there could be a few lingering showers.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 400 PM EST Saturday .

The local area is expected to remain within the warm sector Sunday night with low temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s along with a modest SW breeze. A cold front will approach from the NW Sunday night and track through the area late Sunday night into Monday morning. The highest PoPs remain from later Sunday night into midday Monday. Models still depict some instability Sunday night, and high-res data does depict a thin line of convection developing in this region late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Confidence of thunder is still not high enough to include in the forecast, but a rumble of thunder is possible. More importantly, 950mb wind is forecast to be 40-45kt, so any convective elements could mix down some stronger wind. 27/12z models have trended down with regard to QPF and in general 0.5-0.75" is expected at this time. This will reduce the threat of river flooding due to local runoff. However, some higher amounts are possible across the headwaters.

Cool Canadian high pressure builds into the area Monday night into Tuesday. The sky is expected to clear along with the arrival of more winter-like temperatures. Forecast lows Monday night range from the upper 20s to low 30s, followed by highs in the low to mid 40s Tuesday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 400 PM EST Saturday .

Models remain divergent on their solutions from Tuesday night through Wednesday night. The GFS still maintains dry wx during this period, keeping any systems well south of the area. While the 12z ECMWF brings another system up into and across the region Tuesday night through Wednesday. Generally didn't stray too far from the NBM due to the continued uncertainty, which has chance PoPs across much of the region Wednesday morning/afternoon. Could also see a bit of a rain/snow mix at the onset of the event Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, but this will remain highly dependent on the timing of the system. Mainly dry weather for Thursday into Friday. Generally near normal or slight above normal temps expected for most of the extended period. Another system potentially develops off the coast Friday night into Saturday. The general consensus amongst 27/12z deterministic and ensemble guidance is for low pressure to be off the coast with cool high pressure to the N, but it is too early to be specific on exact temperatures and p-type.

AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 105 PM EST Saturday .

Weak low pressure was pushing off the NJ coast as of 18z. The wind has shifted to SW 8-12kt with occasional gusts to 15-20kt in the wake of the low. IFR cigs have lifted to mainly VFR, aside from some lingering patches of MVFR. VFR conditions are expected to prevail into this evening. A weak cold front is expected to drop in from the N after 06z, with IFR and potentially LIFR cigs developing later tonight into Sunday morning. A wave of low pressure will track along this front, and this will likely bring a 3-6hr period of light rain from RIC to SBY, with the potential for MVFR/IFR vsby in light rain and mist. There is a lesser chance of rain for PHF/ORF/ECG. There is also a potential that some marine fog could push into ORF and ECG as the wind becomes E behind the front. The wind shifts to SW by Sunday afternoon as low moves offshore, and low clouds are expected to scatter with VFR conditions developing.

Another wave of low pressure is expected to track across the region Monday morning as a cold front moves through the area. This will bring another round of degraded flight conditions. High pressure returns to the area Monday night into Tuesday. An area of low pressure potentially moves off the Carolina coast by the middle of next week.

MARINE. As of 400 PM EST Saturday .

Sfc low pressure is located across Eastern New England this afternoon with SW winds 10-15 kt across area coastal waters. High pressure will slide across the region tonight and winds will become light and variable. SCAs remain in effect into tonight for the ocean for seas 5-6 ft.

A warm front will lift north across the area Sunday morning. Winds will turn southerly and increase to 10-15 kt. SCAs are unlikely for Sunday afternoon, but there may be a few brief gusts up to 20 kt across the southern portion of the Chesapeake Bay.

A strong cold front will be moving off the coast from the northwest Monday morning. There may be a line of heavy showers along the front that could produce gusty winds of 20-30 kt as it passes through. Otherwise, winds will become NW and generally around 10-15 kt during the remainder of Monday.

Colder air will move in Monday night with stronger NW winds. Gale conditions are possible for the Atlantic coastal waters north of Cape Charles and the central portions of the Chesapeake Bay. Elsewhere, SCA will likely be needed Monday night through Tuesday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for ANZ652- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ656- 658. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Sunday for ANZ650.

SYNOPSIS . AJB/AJZ NEAR TERM . AJZ SHORT TERM . AJB/AJZ LONG TERM . AJB/AJZ AVIATION . AJZ MARINE . CP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 4 mi57 min W 2.9 G 5.1 50°F 48°F1020.1 hPa (+0.8)
44089 20 mi61 min 41°F6 ft
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 21 mi57 min W 6 G 7 1020.9 hPa (+0.8)
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 35 mi57 min NW 8 G 9.9 43°F
44072 43 mi47 min NW 7.8 G 9.7 47°F
CHBV2 45 mi57 min W 12 G 13 49°F 1019 hPa (-0.0)
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 45 mi57 min W 13 G 14 49°F
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 46 mi61 min 43°F5 ft
44087 48 mi61 min 42°F1 ft
44042 - Potomac, MD 49 mi39 min WNW 3.9 G 5.8 43°F 40°F1020.9 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 49 mi57 min W 1.9 G 1.9 44°F 44°F1020.4 hPa (+1.2)

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA9 mi62 minWNW 610.00 miLight Rain49°F46°F90%1020 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFV

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN6Calm----SE4E4--CalmCalm----CalmCalmCalmNE3NE3--NE7E8E13E15E7E7E8
2 days ago--S8--S8SW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Wachapreague Inlet (inside), Virginia
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Wachapreague Inlet (inside)
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Sat -- 01:42 AM EST     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:19 AM EST     Full Moon
Sat -- 06:36 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:07 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:45 AM EST     4.66 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:18 PM EST     -0.63 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:54 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:25 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:16 PM EST     4.31 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.4-0.3-0.40.21.32.73.84.54.64.23.220.8-0.1-0.6-0.50.41.72.93.84.34.13.42.2

Tide / Current Tables for The Swash, south end, Virginia
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The Swash
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:53 AM EST     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:19 AM EST     Full Moon
Sat -- 06:36 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:07 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:55 AM EST     4.66 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:29 PM EST     -0.63 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:54 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:26 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:26 PM EST     4.31 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.5-0.2-0.401.12.53.64.44.74.33.42.210.1-0.5-0.50.21.42.73.74.34.23.52.4

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