Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fordsville, KY

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 313 PM EST Thu Nov 6 2025

Quiet weather continues today and tonight, however we'll be focusing on an approaching cold front for Friday, and the possibility of some strong to severe storms, especially across southern and eastern portions of our area. Temps are currently peaking in the low and mid 60s this afternoon, with fairly mild temps expected overnight as the warm front begins to lift north over our area. Lows will likely drop off into the 40s early, and then perhaps steady steady or even rise toward dawn on Friday. This will occur as the low level jet cranks up to 40-45 knots overnight, allowing for better moisture transport over the area, and some of the momentum starting to mix down toward the surface.

Gusty SW to NE winds take hold through late morning into the afternoon ahead of the cold front. Most gusts should range between 20 and 30 mph, but a few gusts up around 35 mph can't be ruled out.
A brief warm sector does get established over our area for the afternoon into the early evening hours. HRRR probs for any ML CAPE values near 500 J/KG are only 20-30% across central KY, so it appears we'll be working with around 200 or 300 J/KG of ML CAPE max for this event. Soundings seem to confirm it with lower levels looking somewhat stable. MUCAPE values will be slightly more impressive and could peak in the 500-750 J/KG range, so updrafts will likely be robust enough for some thunder, hail given the lower freezing levels, and perhaps some wind gusts making it down to the surface with the higher momentum air aloft contributing. The brief tornado threat for our south and east CWA seems pretty well messaged with the Marginal 2% probs. Not very likely, but not completely out of the realm of possibility. Our SW surface winds, and fairly unidirectional shear profile thereafter only yields around 150 M2/S2 of SRH (with a subtle stable layer to also compete with), so the tor threat does indeed look marginal, but not zero. A supercell or two across our SE CWA cannot be ruled out, and some larger hail and a slightly better chance for a tornado (assuming deviant right motion)
would be the best chance for a severe report or two. Showers and storms should be exiting our eastern CWA around sunset on Friday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 313 PM EST Thu Nov 6 2025

Friday Night - Saturday...

Showers and perhaps a few stronger storms will be exiting our eastern CWA by early evening. This will be followed by a brief dry period for the remainder of Friday night and the daylight hours on Saturday. Overall, Saturday should yield some pleasant fall weather with highs in the 65 to 70 degree range under partly sunny skies.

Saturday Night - Monday Night...

The late weekend and early work week time frame looks to be a our first real taste of more wintry like conditions as an anomalously deep trough carves out over the eastern CONUS, reinforced by at least two notable shortwaves. The second of these shortwave will be the most intense.

The first wave arrives Saturday night as surface low pressure develops/strengthens near or over our area and then passes quickly NE by Sunday. We'll see scattered light rain showers Saturday night ahead of the digging upper trough axis, but the real story will likely be increasingly cold and gusty conditions heading into Sunday morning. Overall, Sunday will be a raw day with gusty NW winds on strong cold advection, and highs likely not making it out of the low and mid 40s for most. This will likely be one of those days where the diurnal range is quite small. We'll keep isolated to widely scattered rain showers (mainly lapse rate driven) in the forecast through the day.

The second wave arrives Sunday night into Monday, and looks to be quite potent with roughly 525 H5 heights over our near us, and dragging another reinforcing cold front through the area. Expect some lapse rate driven snow showers later Sunday night into Monday with temperatures crashing well into the 20s by Monday morning. With surfaces likely still above freezing it doesn't look like we'll see much accumulations, however low level lapse rates will be steepening and saturation up through the bottom part of the DGZ could yield at least some briefly moderate snow showers. As a result, could pick up a dusting, mainly on elevated surfaces in some spots. There is a more bullish solution suggest by the latest ECMWF and Canadian models that suggests some heavier swaths of snow could fall thanks to a favorable trajectory of 1000-700 mb moisture off Lake Michigan.
This scenario is a possibility, especially for our NE CWA Latest EFI plots do show a statistically significant event could occur (for early November) given a shift of tails signal on the 06/00z run.
Snow showers end by Monday night, but likely the coldest morning of our season occurs early Tuesday. Lows look to bottom out in the low to mid 20s.

Tuesday - Thursday...

The mid week portion of the forecast trends dry under low amplitude and benign NW flow aloft. Temperatures will also be working toward a milder feel. It won't be without a very cold start on Tuesday morning with lows in the low and mid 20s! Tuesday highs will struggle mostly to the 45 to 50 degree range under mostly sunny skies, but still notably below normal for this time of year (around 15 degree below). Wednesday and Thursday highs will be back near normal in the upper 50s and low 60s each day, with surface high pressure gradually gaining control over the area beneath a continued quiet NW flow aloft.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1242 PM EST Thu Nov 6 2025

Quiet and VFR day continues with sunny skies and a light E to ESE wind. Winds will trend lighter this evening and veer to a more SE component, however we will see a 40-45 knot low level jet ramp up across the region after Midnight. Will continue LLWS mention below 2k feet to account for this, and will also increase mid and upper clouds during this time (still VFR). LLWS should start to let go of the area around sunrise as surface gusts kick in with a warm front lifting north across the area. Look for S to SSW winds gusting up around 20 to 30 mph through the afternoon, with Scattered mid level clouds giving way to likely MVFR conditions later in the afternoon and evening. Most of the SHRA/TSRA development ahead of the approaching cold front will occur just outside of this TAF cycle, however look for it in subsequent updates.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...None.
IN...None.