NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

FXUS63 KLMK 301442 AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 942 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

Forecast Update
Issued at 940 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

Latest satellite imagery reveals just a few thin high clouds passing across the region with mostly sunny skies over much of central KY and southern IN. The main batch of cloud cover and precipitation resides west of the Mississippi River this morning, with high-res progs suggesting that the initial low-level theta-E surge will travel up towards the Wabash Valley and into central and northern IN. As a result, expect mostly sunny conditions to continue through at least the early afternoon hours. To compensate for this, have bumped up high temperatures slightly for this afternoon, but still expecting upper 50s and lower 60s across the area. Low-level gradient winds will pickup later this morning, with 10-15 mph sustained winds and 20-30 mph gusts expected out of the SSW later today.

Otherwise, the current forecast is on track. Will send updated products out shortly.

Short Term
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

====================================================================

Key Messages

- Rain returns tonight

- Gusty winds today and tonight

====================================================================

This morning is beginning under scattered cirrus streaming from west to east on zonal flow. High pressure remains over the Southeast with a tight pressure pressure gradient lying parallel to the Ohio Valley. This is keeping south surface winds over the CWA and as diurnal heating breaks the nocturnal inversion, winds will increase to around 15 mph with gusts around 25 mph this afternoon.

This afternoon, a low pressure system with a surface low near the Texas Panhandle will begin to tighten and will get pushed to the northeast in an upper trough. Cloud cover will begin increasing and lowering from the west over southern Indiana and central Kentucky as the system inches closer. Strong WAA will drive high temperatures into the upper 50s to low 60s.

Tonight, the surface low will make it from near the Texas/Oklahoma border to Missouri. This will cause a strong LLJ with winds in the mid 50 to mid 60 knot range to develop ahead of the circulation.
This will help drive isentropic lift and increase rain chances quickly across the CWA around midnight. Model sounding profiles are very stable. This will keep this an all rain event without thunder.
Southern winds will remain gusty with 10-15 mph winds and gusts to 25-30 mph likely during the overnight period. Low temperatures are expected to fall into the upper 30s to low 40s.
.

Long Term
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

====================================================================

Key Messages:

- Widespread rain ends Friday with totals .25" - .6"

- Breezy conditions expected on Friday (25-35 MPH)

- Above normal temperatures expected through this weekend, closer to normal values early next week

=====================================================================

Friday - Friday Night...

Widespread light rain will be ongoing at sunrise, especially across our eastern CWA. The large precipitation shield will be associated with a quickly traversing 60 knot low level jet core, and an associated ~1" PWAT maxima. As we move toward midday and especially into the afternoon, the best low to mid level forcing and deep moisture will shift eastward. The upper wave and the corresponding surface reflection will actually become quite displaced, and ultimately cut off the deep moisture feed as a result. We'll keep lingering light rain showers in the forecast through the remainder of Friday/Friday night as we stay just ahead of the cold front trailing from the southern Great Lakes surface low. Highs should still stay pretty mild on the warm side of the boundary for Friday, with max Ts in the upper 50s and lower 60s. The surface cold front finally makes it into our west by late Friday night, and should see a gradient in lows, with low 40s NW CWA to low 50s SE CWA.

Surface winds will be pretty breezy on Friday, especially in the morning across southern KY. Think we'll see plenty of gusts between 25 and 35 mph, with a few gusts up near 40 mph most likely toward the Lake Cumberland region.

Saturday - Sunday...

We'll stay in deep SW flow aloft situated between western CONUS troughing and Caribbean ridging through the weekend. We should stay mild and mostly dry through that stretch, although will continue to carry some lower chance pops in spots. The first notable chance will be on Saturday down around the Lake Cumberland region where Gulf moisture combines with a subtle southern stream wave. The northern fringes of this precip shield may skirt the SE CWA as a result.

The NBM continues to side with a more aggressive ECMWF solution for Sunday, which brings a stronger northern stream shortwave into the area, that is able to draw on some of the southern stream deeper moisture source. This would bring a decent coverage of rain showers across the area, however other models aren't as bullish. Will keep the chance pops mentioned, but still think there is a chance the day could be mostly dry. Highs each day should remain above normal in the 50s and low 60s.

Sunday Night - Wednesday...

Broad troughing gradually envelopes the eastern third of the country through through the early to mid week time frame, bringing slightly cooler temperatures (back around normal), and a couple of embedded shortwaves that will bring some precipitation chances. There is fairly decent model agreement in a weak clipper system on Monday, and then a slightly stronger system later Tuesday/Tuesday night.
Look for milder conditions ahead of each system, with a brief cool down in the wake. These reinforcing cool shots will have highs back down in the 45 to 50 degree range by Wednesday after Mon/Tue highs in the low to mid 50s.

Aviation
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 658 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

VFR conditions will remain over area TAF sites for at least the next 18 hours before ceilings begin to drop below VFR levels ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Gusty south to south-southwest winds are expected to remain around 10-15 knots with gusts reaching 20-25 knots this afternoon. Around midnight, rain along with lowering ceilings will begin to move into southern Indiana and central Kentucky.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
KY...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Louisville, KY,