Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 6:09AM||Sunset 7:32PM||Friday August 23, 2019 8:21 AM CDT (13:21 UTC)||Moonrise 12:00AM||Moonset 1:37PM||Illumination 45%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fordsville, KYHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus63 klmk 231043|
area forecast discussion
national weather service louisville ky
643 am edt Fri aug 23 2019
Updated aviation discussion...
Short term (today and tonight)
updated at 323 am edt Fri aug 23 2019
seeing some patchy fog and low clouds this morning given the juicy
and stagnant airmass around the frontal boundary. Will mention
patchy fog in the grids, but don't expect any widespread dense
problems at this time.
Troughing continues over the NE CONUS and eastern canada, however
this feature will slide east as we head into the weekend. At the
surface, a cold frontal boundary oriented nearly parallel to the sw
to NE upper flow will slowly slide south across the area today.
South of the boundary, the airmass remains juicy with pwats up
around 2" through the column, and modest instability developing by
afternoon. Overall, deep layer shear remains weak, however a few
pockets of marginal values up around 30 knots (0-6 km) will be
possible across central and southern ky at times. Not overly
concerned about the severe threat across our south as forecast
soundings show a tall skinny CAPE profile, but suppose an isolated
wet microburst could occur with a stronger storm.
The bigger concern is that we could see some training of efficient
rainfall producers as the relatively weak deep layer flow remains
parallel to the front. A closer look at the forecast soundings also
shows a pretty deep warm cloud layer (~14 k feet) which will produce
efficient rainfall in addition to slow movement and some training.
Wpc has our area in a marginal risk, and not too far from the slight
risk so this will be something to keep an eye on.
Precipitation shuts off from north to south from the afternoon into
the evening hours, with southern ky holding onto activity through
most of the night. Meanwhile, surface high pressure builds into most
of our CWA from the north, bringing much lower dew points, dry
conditions, and cooler weather.
Given a steady NE surface wind behind the front, pretty extensive
cloud cover for a good portion of the day, and an overall cooler
airmass highs today are only expected to top out a couple degrees on
either side if 80. Lows tonight are expected to drop into the mid to
upper 50s north, and low to mid 60s south.
Long term (Saturday through Thursday)
updated at 320 am edt Fri aug 23 2019
the weekend looks to start off great, at least north of the parkways
in kentucky. Dewpoints should be in the 50s and with mostly sunny
conditions expect highs topping out in the upper 70s to around 80.
The southern half of the region may keep some lingering clouds from
behind the front clearing our area today.
A trough moving into the midwest Sunday looks like it will try and
pull an inverted surface trough back northward by late in the day
and into the evening hours. Moisture looks like it will filter
quickly back into the region, and with nice lift along this front,
we should get another good chance for rain to start the next work
Another trough moving through Tuesday will force a cold front into
the ohio valley. Will have to watch for timing of this passage with
peak heating for the strength coverage of storms. How far south that
front gets, and consequently how dry we become, is a bit uncertain.
Gefs continues to show a bubble of high pressure moving across the
area Wednesday, but mean QPF fields show some precip. Blended model
forecast gives us 20-30 pops, and this seems reasonable based on the
last couple of fronts that have had a tough time clearing our
region, as well as the forecast for the flow aloft to become more
east west oriented.
Perhaps another shortwave moves into the midwest Thursday, providing
additional shower storm chances. Climatological pops are in the 20
percent range, and as the blended model forecast runs are near
that too, see no good reason to stray too far from that guidance.
High temperatures through the period should stay either below normal
or right at normal, again depending on timing of some of these
troughs. Lows will start off below normal for Saturday before
getting back to normal the rest of the period.
Aviation (12z TAF issuance)
updated at 642 am edt Fri aug 23 2019
an upper level disturbance will begin to slowly move out of the
region through this TAF cycle. Meanwhile, a slow moving surface cold
front will sink southward over and through the TAF sites. We'll
continue to see one area of showers over southern ky, and another
over southern in and northern ky up along the frontal boundary.
Otherwise, the main concern this morning is lowering ceilings and
some patchy fog. Every site should at least see some MVFR ceilings,
with some ifr possible at hnb lex bwg mostly around sunrise through
The front then gets a pretty big push southward in the afternoon
with improving conditions back toVFR and then skc by this evening
at the northern TAF sites. A few showers and storms could fire along
the front again this afternoon and evening and would most likely
impact bwg if that occurred. Coverage and confidence aren't high
enough to mention more than vc at this time.
Lmk watches warnings advisories
Short term... Bjs
long term... Rjs
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|Owensboro, Owensboro-Daviess County Airport, KY||27 mi||25 min||N 3||0.50 mi||Fog||72°F||72°F||100%||1017.2 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KOWB
Wind History from OWB (wind in knots)
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|2 days ago||S||S||W||SW||W||SW||N|
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