Saturday, March28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fordsville, KY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 7:09PM Saturday March 28, 2020 3:34 PM CDT (20:34 UTC) Moonrise 9:02AMMoonset 11:14PM Illumination 23% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fordsville, KY
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location: 37.58, -86.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY
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FXUS63 KLMK 282007 AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 407 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Short Term. (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 345 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

. Scattered Severe Storms Possible Tonight .

A potent mid-level low continues to strengthen as it moves northeast across the central Plains this afternoon. It will continue spinning across Iowa this evening, reaching southern Wisconsin by 12z Sunday. A 70-90 kt mid-level jet in the southeastern portion of the upper trough will overspread the region this evening and overnight. A 993 mb sfc low, analyzed this afternoon near the southern Nebraska/Iowa border, will follow a similar track as the whole system occludes Sunday morning.

Convection today has been concentrated along the warm front now well to our north as well as a southward extending pre-frontal trough now over Missouri and Arkansas. A deep southerly plume of moisture continues to stream northward in the warm sector along and downstream of the pre-frontal trough. Sfc dewpoints into the mid 60s are already in place across central KY and southern IN. Compared to recent thunderstorm episodes, instability is not likely to be a significant limiting factor.

A broken line of thunderstorms, some strong to severe, is expected to move across central KY and southern IN between 8 PM EDT and 6 AM EDT Sunday. The most likely time frame for severe weather is 7 PM - 12 AM CDT west of I-65 and 12 AM - 5 AM EDT east of I-65. SBCAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg will be available initially along and west of I-65. Instability does gradually wane after 12-2 AM with the storms pushing east of I-65. SBCAPE should generally be less than 750 J/kg east of a line from Frankfort to Tompkinsville. However, isolated to scattered severe storms (Slight Risk) extending into the Bluegrass Region still looks reasonable given 50-60 kt storm motion.

Individual cells within the line will be racing to the northeast. 50- 70 kts deep layer shear will support excellent organization, including supercells. With ESRH around 300 m2/s2 and wet bulb zero heights around 10-11 kft, all severe modes remain on the table. Forecast STP of 3-4+ generally near and west of the I-65 corridor does suggest a slightly higher tornado probability in that area (relative to the I-75 corridor). Overall, this round of storms should sweep through quite quickly, so the flash flood threat is low. The front sweeps through Sunday morning, with clouds clearing out fairly abruptly. Sunday looks somewhat cooler (but not cold) and quite windy. From mid-morning on, gusts will easily exceed 30 mph and peak gusts could top 40 mph. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid to upper 60s.

Long Term. (Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 400 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Relatively quiet weather is in store for the extended period as near- zonal flow dominates in response to a strong polar low and a barotropic pattern south of the CONUS. Other than one well-defined kink in the upper flow trying to make it's way through the southeast U.S. Tuesday, only weak perturbations in the upper flow will occur until next weekend approaches. At that point, the hemispheric models attempt to sharpen up the flow a bit, but with the normal model divergences taking over, timing and magnitude of this system is questionable at the moment. Between Tuesday and Friday, only isolated POPs creep back into the picture with little confidence in timing out any wiggles in the upper flow.

Temperatures during the week will be cooling off to at-or-below normal, reaching the 60s Monday, but then primarily in the 50s for highs through Saturday. Low temperatures Monday and Tuesday mornings will be in the 40s, then dip into the 30s to lower 40s for the rest of the period. With temperatures in the 40s and 50s Tuesday, precipitation will fall mainly as showers, with only a few claps of thunder expected, if at all.

Aviation. (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 130 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

VFR weather to continue through the afternoon and early evening hours with BKN low to mid cloud cover and gusty SSW winds. Gusts up to 20-25 kts will continue to be possible through late afternoon.

A broken line of thunderstorms ahead of a surface cold front will move across the region tonight. The most likely time frame for storms at each TAF site is included in the TAF and was tweaked only slightly from the 12z issuance. Some of these storms could be quite strong with gusty and possibly damaging winds, large hail, very heavy rainfall, and lightning. Significant vsby restrictions and lower ceilings likely in any storm. Even outside of thunderstorms, SW winds at 2 kft will be around 45-50 kts tonight.

Clouds scatter out fairly quickly behind the cold front 09-12z Sunday. However, it will remain quite windy on Sunday. 20 kt sustained winds from the SW are likely after 13z or so, with gusts up to 30-35 kts.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . None. KY . None.

Short Term . EBW Long Term . JBS Aviation . EBW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Owensboro, Owensboro-Daviess County Airport, KY27 mi39 minSSW 1610.00 miOvercast79°F64°F62%1007.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOWB

Wind History from OWB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10S10S6S6CalmS3CalmSE4S7S8SE6S6S6S4S7S9SW7SW14SW14
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1 day agoSW16SW16
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SW11SW8SW7NW3S3CalmS6SE3S4NE5E5E3CalmN8SE6SE8SE10S10S10SW11SW12SW7
2 days agoSW6SW8S9S4S4S7S8S5S8S7CalmCalmS4S7S5S7S7S9S10S10S12S12S15S15
G21

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Louisville, KY (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Louisville, KY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.