Friday, August23, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Fordsville, KY

Version 3.4
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:09AMSunset 7:32PM Friday August 23, 2019 8:21 AM CDT (13:21 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:37PM Illumination 45% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fordsville, KY
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location: 37.58, -86.71     debug

Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY
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Fxus63 klmk 231043
area forecast discussion
national weather service louisville ky
643 am edt Fri aug 23 2019

Updated aviation discussion...

Short term (today and tonight)
updated at 323 am edt Fri aug 23 2019
seeing some patchy fog and low clouds this morning given the juicy
and stagnant airmass around the frontal boundary. Will mention
patchy fog in the grids, but don't expect any widespread dense
problems at this time.

Troughing continues over the NE CONUS and eastern canada, however
this feature will slide east as we head into the weekend. At the
surface, a cold frontal boundary oriented nearly parallel to the sw
to NE upper flow will slowly slide south across the area today.

South of the boundary, the airmass remains juicy with pwats up
around 2" through the column, and modest instability developing by
afternoon. Overall, deep layer shear remains weak, however a few
pockets of marginal values up around 30 knots (0-6 km) will be
possible across central and southern ky at times. Not overly
concerned about the severe threat across our south as forecast
soundings show a tall skinny CAPE profile, but suppose an isolated
wet microburst could occur with a stronger storm.

The bigger concern is that we could see some training of efficient
rainfall producers as the relatively weak deep layer flow remains
parallel to the front. A closer look at the forecast soundings also
shows a pretty deep warm cloud layer (~14 k feet) which will produce
efficient rainfall in addition to slow movement and some training.

Wpc has our area in a marginal risk, and not too far from the slight
risk so this will be something to keep an eye on.

Precipitation shuts off from north to south from the afternoon into
the evening hours, with southern ky holding onto activity through
most of the night. Meanwhile, surface high pressure builds into most
of our CWA from the north, bringing much lower dew points, dry
conditions, and cooler weather.

Given a steady NE surface wind behind the front, pretty extensive
cloud cover for a good portion of the day, and an overall cooler
airmass highs today are only expected to top out a couple degrees on
either side if 80. Lows tonight are expected to drop into the mid to
upper 50s north, and low to mid 60s south.

Long term (Saturday through Thursday)
updated at 320 am edt Fri aug 23 2019
the weekend looks to start off great, at least north of the parkways
in kentucky. Dewpoints should be in the 50s and with mostly sunny
conditions expect highs topping out in the upper 70s to around 80.

The southern half of the region may keep some lingering clouds from
behind the front clearing our area today.

A trough moving into the midwest Sunday looks like it will try and
pull an inverted surface trough back northward by late in the day
and into the evening hours. Moisture looks like it will filter
quickly back into the region, and with nice lift along this front,
we should get another good chance for rain to start the next work

Another trough moving through Tuesday will force a cold front into
the ohio valley. Will have to watch for timing of this passage with
peak heating for the strength coverage of storms. How far south that
front gets, and consequently how dry we become, is a bit uncertain.

Gefs continues to show a bubble of high pressure moving across the
area Wednesday, but mean QPF fields show some precip. Blended model
forecast gives us 20-30 pops, and this seems reasonable based on the
last couple of fronts that have had a tough time clearing our
region, as well as the forecast for the flow aloft to become more
east west oriented.

Perhaps another shortwave moves into the midwest Thursday, providing
additional shower storm chances. Climatological pops are in the 20
percent range, and as the blended model forecast runs are near
that too, see no good reason to stray too far from that guidance.

High temperatures through the period should stay either below normal
or right at normal, again depending on timing of some of these
troughs. Lows will start off below normal for Saturday before
getting back to normal the rest of the period.

Aviation (12z TAF issuance)
updated at 642 am edt Fri aug 23 2019
an upper level disturbance will begin to slowly move out of the
region through this TAF cycle. Meanwhile, a slow moving surface cold
front will sink southward over and through the TAF sites. We'll
continue to see one area of showers over southern ky, and another
over southern in and northern ky up along the frontal boundary.

Otherwise, the main concern this morning is lowering ceilings and
some patchy fog. Every site should at least see some MVFR ceilings,
with some ifr possible at hnb lex bwg mostly around sunrise through
around midday.

The front then gets a pretty big push southward in the afternoon
with improving conditions back toVFR and then skc by this evening
at the northern TAF sites. A few showers and storms could fire along
the front again this afternoon and evening and would most likely
impact bwg if that occurred. Coverage and confidence aren't high
enough to mention more than vc at this time.

Lmk watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Ky... None.

Short term... Bjs
long term... Rjs
aviation... Bjs

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Owensboro, Owensboro-Daviess County Airport, KY27 mi25 minN 30.50 miFog72°F72°F100%1017.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOWB

Wind History from OWB (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSW4S7SE4S3SW3CalmSW6SW6SW5CalmNW5NW5SW6CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmW3CalmSW3CalmN3
1 day agoSW7W6SW9W5W8SW9SW6W7NW7N3N6CalmCalmCalmCalmS4W8N11N4NE5SE4S3S4S5
2 days agoS4S4W5SW8W9SW11N20

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Louisville, KY (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Louisville, KY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.