Thursday, October1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fordsville, KY

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 6:32PM Thursday October 1, 2020 10:44 AM CDT (15:44 UTC) Moonrise 6:50PMMoonset 6:18AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fordsville, KY
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location: 37.58, -86.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY
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FXUS63 KLMK 011416 AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 1016 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

Forecast Update. Issued at 1016 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

It's a beautiful morning on the first day of October with clear skies and temperatures in the lower 60s. Mid-level clouds continue to slowly drift southeast across central IL/IN. Widely scattered showers still look possible by mid-afternoon, especially over southern IN and north-central KY.

Short Term. (Today and tonight) Issued at 302 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

A layer of 850-700mb moisture over the Great Lakes and Upper Mississippi Valley early this morning will slide southeastward today, bringing clouds into the Ohio Valley. A surface trough sliding southward across Indiana and a weak disturbance dropping into the base of the main upper trough may help to spark scattered high-based showers from southeast Indiana into northern Kentucky as we exceed convective temperatures this afternoon. Weak instability and very dry mid/upper layer air above a strong inversion should limit vertical growth and thunder potential. Winds will come in from the west and may gust into the 20-25mph range this afternoon . possibly higher in conjunction with showers given steep low level lapse rates and very dry sub-cloud air. As for temperatures, will aim for highs around 70, though higher values aren't out of the question especially if we realize more sun than currently expected.

Skies will become mostly clear and winds will diminish tonight as chilly Canadian high pressure builds in from the Plains. Friday morning temperatures will likely range in the 39-44 degree range with the usual caveat with clear skies/light winds that locally colder temperatures will be possible in low-lying rural locations.

Long Term. (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

. Below Normal Temps thru Monday .

Well . there is a tale of 2 USA synoptic weather regimes with 590dm ridge over Joshua Tree NP CA and sfc high pressure over west coast. This is not certainly not helping wildfires with temps 10-20 above normal along with Air Quality Alerts, red flag warnings, and heat headlines over the Golden State. Meanwhile a precipitous trough is over the eastern half of the US. This deep parabola will have a few reinforcing shots of cold air.

With NW flow . expect an unseasonably cool airmass with temps 5 to 12 degrees below normal. The 500 mb heights and temps are 2 SD below normal along with 850 temps. In fact 850 temps of +14 to +16 C on Wed will be replaced by 2 to 4 C on Fri and 0 to 2 C by Sat morning.

Fri & Sat .

The upper trough dominates aloft and a 1024 mb surface high is taking care of the low levels. Classic bkn sc/cu field with steep llvl lapse rates. Would not be surprised to see a few sprinkles across the N Bluegrass Soundings show temps around 60 Friday. but if there is more Great Lakes induced cloud cover then mid 50s are possible.

With cold airmass and skies clearing Fri night . temps will drop to 38 to 43 F with mid 30s temps in valleys and lower possible. Given light winds and sufficiently high RH, patchy frost is definitely a concern.

Southerly return flow a bit on Saturday ahead of the next weather feature. Skies will be more cerulean, no precip, with highs in the mid 60s.

Sun .

Let's go back a bit and talk about an embedded shortwave (Saskatchewan Screamer) that is expected to emerge to near Pierre SD by Fri evening and into the Show Me State on Sat and strengthening as it does so.

Decent isentropic ascent with this feature with column moistening with PWATS maxing out at 0.90 inches for a a brief time. While confidence continues to increase that most areas will see some light precip, pluviometers should only measure 0.10 to 0.25 of inch. There is no instability to speak of with s/wave and impacts will be quick. Overall your Sunday will be overcast and a bit damp with temps well below average. Based on soundings and the Massie Rose thickness technique, 60-65 F looks reasonable with closer to 70 F near TN border. The rain may start close to daybreak in the far Wrn CWA (late Sat Night).

Mon-Tue .

Upper trough passes through early then heights rise a bit later on Monday into Tuesday with flow becoming more zonal. With some brief ridging 850mb temps moderate back to 6-8 C by late Mon into Tue. GFS is a bit warmer . so right now we have mid 60s . but would not be surprised if we warm to closer to 70. Southerly flow and ridge should bring Tuesday temps to at or above normal . 70-75 F.

Wed .

Next Manitoba Mauler dives quickly SE into Great Lakes . and will be on our NE CWA doorstep by Thu 00z. Looks like most of precip will be N of I 64.

Weather History Tidbits .

Oct 2 . 1894 F3 hit Little Rock Oct 3 . 1964 Cat 4 Hilda hit SE LA killing 38 Oct 4 . 1995 Opal hit FL Panhandle as a Cat 3 Oct 5 . 1786 Great Pumpkin Flood of Susquehanna River Oct 6 . 1981 F28 Fokker flew into tornado in Holland killing all 17 Oct 7 . 1844 Major hurricane hit Jamaica, Cuba, and Bahamas

Aviation. (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 626 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

Winds will pick up today ahead of an approaching surface trough, likely gusting over 20kt this afternoon. A few showers may develop in the afternoon from southeast Indiana into northern Kentucky, so went ahead and included a PROB30 at SDF and LEX though that may be on the pessimistic side. Cloud bases will remain VFR.

Winds will then settle down this evening with clearing skies as Canadian high pressure builds in.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . None. KY . None.

Update . EBW Short Term . 13 Long Term . JDG Aviation . 13


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Owensboro, Owensboro-Daviess County Airport, KY27 mi49 minW 710.00 miFair65°F45°F49%1018 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOWB

Wind History from OWB (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Louisville, KY
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