Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hardinsburg, KY
October 4, 2023 11:19 PM EDT (03:19 UTC)
Sunrise 7:40AM Sunset 7:24PM Moonrise 9:53PM Moonset 12:42PM
Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY
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FXUS63 KLMK 050054 AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 854 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023
Forecast Update
Issued at 854 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023
Another quiet night, influenced by high pressure ridging from the mid-Atlantic to the Deep South. High clouds will continue to increase and thicken from west to east ahead of intense convection over the southern Plains and ahead of a slowly approaching cold front. Temperatures will be much warmer than normal under the blanket of clouds and in our position between the ridge and the front, with lows tonight generally in the lower and middle 60s.
Short Term
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023
The rest of the day will be nice and warm as southerly flow pushes highs into the mid to upper 80s which is around 10 degrees above normal, but as we head into tonight, a cold front, currently over Kansas City, will continue pushing towards the southeast. This will continue to push upper level cloud cover east over southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Clouds will build and slowly lower into the mid levels as we near 12z tomorrow morning. Between around 10-12z there is a slight chance that some light precipitation could fall in the first row of counties along the western edge of the CWA. Light WAA and cloudy skies will keep temperatures mild in the low to mid 60s.
Around 14z or so, the cold front will reach the CWA and cause rain along the western edge of the CWA, and through the rest of the day, the area of precipitation will slowly work east across the CWA.
Precipitable water values of around 1.5 - 1.6" have remained consistent in model data over the last 24 hours. Rainfall totals through 0z Friday are expected to be between 0.1 to 0.5" in most places. Since this system will continue into the long-term period and not be through the CWA yet, the higher of these amounts will be over southwest Indiana, near Jasper, Indiana with lower amounts to the southeast. Model soundings continue to show an area of weak instability under an inversion around 700mb. This will keep this an all rain event, with no thunder expected. Winds behind the front will only see a slight shift from the southeast towards the southwest. With gusts up to 20 mph possible, WAA will push high temperatures into the mid 70s to low 80s.
Long Term
(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023
Thursday Night - Friday Night...
Broad troughing will envelop much of the central and eastern CONUS late week, with gradual progression eastward into the weekend.
Fairly widespread rainfall (likely to categorical pops) from west to east is expected to develop ahead of the upper trough axis later Thursday through at least the first part of Friday. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will slide through the area Thursday night. PWATs peak in the 1.5" to 1.6" range through the atmospheric column, with initial precipitation Thursday evening/night being driven by low level jet response. However, right entrance region support intensifies into Friday which will probably keeps rain chances lingering a good bit into Friday, especially east of I-65.
A look at planimetric MU CAPE forecasts and forecast soundings both show virtually no instability to work with, so this should mostly just be light to occasionally moderate rain. Given the forcing at times, suppose we could get a few lightning strikes, but not even sure it is worth carrying a slight chance at this point. Otherwise, most rainfall amounts should be in the one-third to one half inch range through Friday. Probabilities for .75" of rainfall drop off to between 15-25% across our area, with the most likely locations being up over southern IN. A few spots may see amounts that high, but most areas are expected to be a half inch or less.
Will likely have a lull in precipitation activity the second part of Friday, especially across western KY. Then, a secondary shortwave rotates through the parent trough, swinging a stronger cold front through the area. May see a few showers associated with this feature across our NE CWA Friday night, however this secondary trough axis and cold front swing through quickly, and we should be dry by sunrise Saturday morning.
Look for temps to fall into the upper 50s and low 60s on Thursday night as the first/weaker cold front passes, but clouds/precipitation keep temp drops in check. After highs only in the low to mid 70s on Friday, night lows drop mostly into the 40 to 45 degree range by Saturday morning. A few upper 30s can't be ruled out, especially across our NW.
Saturday - Tuesday...
...Patchy Frost Saturday Night?....
Dry NW flow aloft and strong cP surface high pressure build in for the late weekend, early week time frame. A good taste of Fall weather comes with these features as highs Saturday only top out around 60s under steady cold advection and some lapse rate driven stratocu. Look for some gusts around 20 - 25 mph. Saturday night will bring the best chance for some patchy frost as lows are expected to dip into the upper 30s and low 40s. This isn't a certainty, however, as surface winds may stay up around 5 knots and could limit frost potential a bit. Look for similar cool highs on Sunday in the upper 50s and low 60s, before temps begin moderating Mon/Tue, but still below normal. Highs by Tuesday are in the upper 60s and low 70s, with chilly nights mostly in the low to mid 40s.
Tuesday Night - Wednesday...
Less confidence by the mid week time frame as an anomalous upper low gyres over eastern Canada. While confidence is high in this feature and its general location, individual disturbances rotating around its southern periphery could impact our weather. The pattern looks mostly dry with chilly overnight temps moderating to near normal temps in the low to mid 70s.
Aviation
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 711 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023
We'll have another uneventful night tonight weatherwise. Thickening cirrus will continue to stream in from the west and surface winds will remain light out of the south behind high pressure along the East Coast.
Tomorrow a weak cold front will approach from the west, introducing scattered light rain showers to the region by late morning or early afternoon, continuing into tomorrow evening. Any reductions to visibility should be brief. Ceilings will lower, however, and likely go below VFR at HNB by mid-afternoon and SDF by evening. With it being relatively far out in the forecast period, will stay somewhat conservative for now in how far to bring ceilings down, but ceilings may need to be adjusted downward in future TAF packages for Thursday afternoon and evening at HNB/SDF.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
KY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 854 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023
Forecast Update
Issued at 854 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023
Another quiet night, influenced by high pressure ridging from the mid-Atlantic to the Deep South. High clouds will continue to increase and thicken from west to east ahead of intense convection over the southern Plains and ahead of a slowly approaching cold front. Temperatures will be much warmer than normal under the blanket of clouds and in our position between the ridge and the front, with lows tonight generally in the lower and middle 60s.
Short Term
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023
The rest of the day will be nice and warm as southerly flow pushes highs into the mid to upper 80s which is around 10 degrees above normal, but as we head into tonight, a cold front, currently over Kansas City, will continue pushing towards the southeast. This will continue to push upper level cloud cover east over southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Clouds will build and slowly lower into the mid levels as we near 12z tomorrow morning. Between around 10-12z there is a slight chance that some light precipitation could fall in the first row of counties along the western edge of the CWA. Light WAA and cloudy skies will keep temperatures mild in the low to mid 60s.
Around 14z or so, the cold front will reach the CWA and cause rain along the western edge of the CWA, and through the rest of the day, the area of precipitation will slowly work east across the CWA.
Precipitable water values of around 1.5 - 1.6" have remained consistent in model data over the last 24 hours. Rainfall totals through 0z Friday are expected to be between 0.1 to 0.5" in most places. Since this system will continue into the long-term period and not be through the CWA yet, the higher of these amounts will be over southwest Indiana, near Jasper, Indiana with lower amounts to the southeast. Model soundings continue to show an area of weak instability under an inversion around 700mb. This will keep this an all rain event, with no thunder expected. Winds behind the front will only see a slight shift from the southeast towards the southwest. With gusts up to 20 mph possible, WAA will push high temperatures into the mid 70s to low 80s.
Long Term
(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023
Thursday Night - Friday Night...
Broad troughing will envelop much of the central and eastern CONUS late week, with gradual progression eastward into the weekend.
Fairly widespread rainfall (likely to categorical pops) from west to east is expected to develop ahead of the upper trough axis later Thursday through at least the first part of Friday. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will slide through the area Thursday night. PWATs peak in the 1.5" to 1.6" range through the atmospheric column, with initial precipitation Thursday evening/night being driven by low level jet response. However, right entrance region support intensifies into Friday which will probably keeps rain chances lingering a good bit into Friday, especially east of I-65.
A look at planimetric MU CAPE forecasts and forecast soundings both show virtually no instability to work with, so this should mostly just be light to occasionally moderate rain. Given the forcing at times, suppose we could get a few lightning strikes, but not even sure it is worth carrying a slight chance at this point. Otherwise, most rainfall amounts should be in the one-third to one half inch range through Friday. Probabilities for .75" of rainfall drop off to between 15-25% across our area, with the most likely locations being up over southern IN. A few spots may see amounts that high, but most areas are expected to be a half inch or less.
Will likely have a lull in precipitation activity the second part of Friday, especially across western KY. Then, a secondary shortwave rotates through the parent trough, swinging a stronger cold front through the area. May see a few showers associated with this feature across our NE CWA Friday night, however this secondary trough axis and cold front swing through quickly, and we should be dry by sunrise Saturday morning.
Look for temps to fall into the upper 50s and low 60s on Thursday night as the first/weaker cold front passes, but clouds/precipitation keep temp drops in check. After highs only in the low to mid 70s on Friday, night lows drop mostly into the 40 to 45 degree range by Saturday morning. A few upper 30s can't be ruled out, especially across our NW.
Saturday - Tuesday...
...Patchy Frost Saturday Night?....
Dry NW flow aloft and strong cP surface high pressure build in for the late weekend, early week time frame. A good taste of Fall weather comes with these features as highs Saturday only top out around 60s under steady cold advection and some lapse rate driven stratocu. Look for some gusts around 20 - 25 mph. Saturday night will bring the best chance for some patchy frost as lows are expected to dip into the upper 30s and low 40s. This isn't a certainty, however, as surface winds may stay up around 5 knots and could limit frost potential a bit. Look for similar cool highs on Sunday in the upper 50s and low 60s, before temps begin moderating Mon/Tue, but still below normal. Highs by Tuesday are in the upper 60s and low 70s, with chilly nights mostly in the low to mid 40s.
Tuesday Night - Wednesday...
Less confidence by the mid week time frame as an anomalous upper low gyres over eastern Canada. While confidence is high in this feature and its general location, individual disturbances rotating around its southern periphery could impact our weather. The pattern looks mostly dry with chilly overnight temps moderating to near normal temps in the low to mid 70s.
Aviation
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 711 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023
We'll have another uneventful night tonight weatherwise. Thickening cirrus will continue to stream in from the west and surface winds will remain light out of the south behind high pressure along the East Coast.
Tomorrow a weak cold front will approach from the west, introducing scattered light rain showers to the region by late morning or early afternoon, continuing into tomorrow evening. Any reductions to visibility should be brief. Ceilings will lower, however, and likely go below VFR at HNB by mid-afternoon and SDF by evening. With it being relatively far out in the forecast period, will stay somewhat conservative for now in how far to bring ceilings down, but ceilings may need to be adjusted downward in future TAF packages for Thursday afternoon and evening at HNB/SDF.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
KY...None.
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Louisville, KY,
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