Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hardinsburg, KY

UPDATE
Issued at 914 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025

Band of showers and thunderstorms is pushing into the southern tier of counties in Kentucky as advertised, with initially heavy rains dropping nearly a half inch in Simpson County thus far. Given the radar presentation, precip rates do ease fairly quickly after the first quick-hitting downpour.

Expect a slow northward progression of showers and storms through the night, reaching at least the I-64 corridor by daybreak. This trend is well-handled in the going forecast, so no changes planned at this time, except to beef up the Hazardous Weather Outlook to highlight the potential for brief heavy rainfall and associated ponding.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025

The Lower Ohio Valley remains under a split upper jet with a large stacked low pressure system sitting north of the southern stream.
Currently, the system sits over Louisiana, and as the overall spit jet pattern slides to the east, it will push surface features as well. Surface high pressure extending into our region from the northeast will get pushed farther to the east. This will allow the surface low under the aforementioned system to push farther north, and as it does that moisture will continue to get funneled north from the eastern Gulf straight over central Kentucky and southern Indiana. This is beginning to lift precipitable water values south to north through the CWA Just a few hours ago PWATs near the Ohio River were near 0.25". They remain under 1", but by tonight we will likely see some of the higher values slightly over 1.5"

This evening into the early overnight hours, showers and a few sub- severe thunderstorms will begin working into south central Kentucky.
Activity will continue to work its way farther north across Kentucky as we lose instability, making thunderstorms less likely, and with the system's circulation remaining to our southwest near the Mississippi River, it won't be until tomorrow morning before some of our eastern communities see the precipitation. Winds mostly out of the east with lots of low level cloud cover brought in with the system will keep temperatures in the low to mid 60s tonight.

Tomorrow, the system continues to slowly drift northeast towards the Lower Ohio Valley. Winds veer towards the southeast. WAA and possible holes in the clouds, allowing for extra sunshine, could help provide a little extra instability. This would allow extra fuel for thunderstorms as temperatures warm to the mid 70s to low 80s.
Some hail is possible with wind gusts, but due to weak shear, any hail in a storm would likely see melting before hitting the ground.
Not expecting anything severe.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025

Monday night through Wednesday will be unsettled as a closed upper low slowly makes its way from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Appalachians. Shear to organize any convection will be quite weak, but modest instability and respectable deep moisture (PWATs at 1.3 to 1.4 inches but high layer mean RH) will support widespread showers and storms during the daytime. Anything that develops and can sustain itself will move slowly, which could lead to localized flooding of poorly drained and low-lying areas, especially on Tuesday. By Wednesday the focus will shift into east-central Kentucky as the axis of the upper trof/low passes overhead.

For Wednesday night and Thursday, shortwave upper ridging starts to win out along with low-level warm advection. Thursday will be the best chance at a dry day, as well as the warmest day of the week.
Temps could push 90, depending on how much greenness and soil moisture limit our ability to heat up. In general look for Thursday afternoon highs in the mid 80s with a good shot at upper 80s in the urban areas.

For Friday and Saturday the upper pattern flattens out significantly, with precip chances driven by the interaction between a slow-moving sfc front and subtle disturbances in the flow aloft.
Will keep it in the chance category given limited forecast confidence, with highs slightly above normal and lows well above normal as diurnal ranges will be smaller.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 654 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025

Easterly sfc winds will persist as high pressure continues its retreat into New England and low pressure spins over the Deep South.
As disturbances pinwheel around the stacked low to our south, look for showers and storms to spread from south to north overnight and continue for much of Monday. Cigs will gradually lower with prevailing -SHRA and MVFR conditions expected after midnight at BWG and toward daybreak at SDF and LEX. Could be a period of cigs below 2000 feet toward midday Monday, but prevailing vis should remain unrestricted.

Monday afternoon could see winds veer to SE at BWG with gusts approaching 20 kt, and ceilings lifting across the board with more breaks in the precip.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...None.
IN...None.