Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hardinsburg, KY

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 303 AM EDT Thu May 22 2025

Things are quiet across the CWA at this hour with the closed low situated over the eastern Great Lakes and unremarkable NW flow holding aloft. Another shortwave rotates through the parent trough later today, and could be just enough of a kicker combined with steepening low level lapse rates to squeeze out a few light showers across the NE third of the CWA Have some low pops to account for that. Otherwise, the other notable sensible weather feature will be gusty W to WNW winds this afternoon. Looks like we'll be mixing up into a 20-25 knot layer which should yield some occasional gusts in the 20-30 mph range mid morning through early evening.

Temps are expected to struggle a bit again today as we sit under a steady cool advection regime. In addition, our NE third of the CWA will see more extensive cloud cover from the closed low to our NE.
This will also hurt temperatures in that area. Looking for low to mid 60s for highs under the more expansive clouds, with low 70s across our SW CWA under less cloud cover. Winds slacken tonight with less expected sky cover. As a result, overnight lows get chilly.
Looking for low to mid 40s for most, with some upper 40s to around 50 in the typically milder locations.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 303 AM EDT Thu May 22 2025

Friday - Saturday Night...

Our region will be placed conveniently between the expansive closed upper low over New England, and a stalled warm frontal boundary to our SW late week into the first part of the weekend. The end result will be a cool and dry stretch as unremarkable NW flow aloft dominates our upper pattern. Temps will be chilly in the low and mid 40s for most to start out Friday morning, and that will continue into afternoon highs where values only top out in the mid 60s to around 70 thanks to steady cool advection. These values are around 10-15 degrees below normal for this time of year. Another chilly night Friday night with mid 40s to low 50s across the area, followed by Saturday highs similar to Friday. Light precipitation chances may return as early as Saturday night as the aforementioned warm front to our SW starts to lift back NE into our area. Models vary on the placement a bit, but will have to carry at least some mention. Temps also start to trend milder by this time thanks to increase sky cover.

Sunday - Monday Night...

Looking to be a more active setup for the second half of the holiday weekend as a warm front will lift a bit northward and settle/stall over or just south of our area. A surface low then looks to develop over the southern Plains ahead of a digging positive tilt trough over the central Plains, and will eject out toward our region by later Monday into Monday night. Expect fairly widespread showers on Sunday, mostly on the overrunning/cool side of the boundary.
Instability looks fairly meager, but will at least include some mention of Thunder. By Monday, the surface low and it's respective triple point should be very near or passing through our CWA At the moment, it doesn't look like we are able to establish much of an unstable warm sector, even across our south. However, it likely wouldn't take much to get a little unstable in late May. Something to watch, but not overly concerned about severe for now. Will note the ML runs do show some lower end probabilities across our southern half/third of the CWA Could end up resulting in a lower outlook from SPC, but again much will depend on getting some sort of warm sector established. 22/00z GFS soundings show a pretty stable column for the moment, so we'll see. 21/12 ECMWF has a stronger surface low that would allow for a more unstable warm sector across our south to contrast.

Perhaps the bigger story will be rainfall amounts for the Sunday - Monday time frame. WPC has around 1" to 2" across our area, with the Green River Basin once again getting the heavy precip workload.
Makes sense down there closer to the stalled warm front. We're at the time of year where we can handle some rainfall, especially after a few days of dry leading up to it. That being said, the river basin will already be running high, so it could at least bring a river flood threat along with some localized nuisance flooding concerns down there. We'll keep an eye on those trends as well, which is currently going downward with the latest data.

Tuesday - Wednesday...

Looks like cool and wet conditions linger through the middle of next week as the central Plains trough closes off and settles over the eastern CONUS. This keeps us under the influence of that feature which will result in periods of showers and below normal temps. Look for highs mostly in the low and mid 70s, however the north will have the best shot at staying confined to the 60s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 642 AM EDT Thu May 22 2025

VFR conditions expected through this forecast cycle, with only some mid level cloud cover to note across our northern TAF sites at times today. The other issue will be generally W to WNW winds that will pick up intensity by mid morning, and then proceed to gust through the rest of the day. Looking at some gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range today before subsiding around sunset later this evening. Expect a quiet overnight with light and variable winds and diminishing clouds.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...None.
IN...None.