Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hardinsburg, KY

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 317 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

High pressure has shifted off to the east and southerly flow is ushering in more moisture and warmer temperatures. As of this writing, temperatures are in the upper 70s and low 80s and high will top out in the low to mid 80s. Few to scattered cumulus clouds are developing over TN and this will work north through the rest of the afternoon. Around sunset clouds will dissipate, before upper skies begin to fill in from the west in the early morning. Winds will stay steady through the night, which will prevent efficient cooling. Low temperatures are forecasted to be in the low to mid 60s in the east and upper 60s, possibly flirting with 70, elsewhere.

A strong low pressure system currently over the Midwest will continue to track northeast into the upper Great Lakes and southern Canada on Tuesday. The associated upper troughing will move east and run into the strong ridging that has been in place over the region for the last few days. The lower Ohio Valley is placed in the region where both of these features meet. The trough will work to degrade the ridge and push it eastward. As this occurs, flow will become more zonal.

The region will be located under the warm sector, where ample moisture will be present (1.5-1.8 inch PWATs) and instability (2500+ J/kg). Additionally, 25-35kts of deep layer shear will be present over the area, which is enough to help the organization of storms.
The better shear and forcing will located to the north.

In the morning decaying convection will likely bring scattered showers over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky in the morning after sunrise. In the afternoon, with increased instability and warm temperatures, there is a chance for isolated to scattered storms to develop. These storms would pose both a wind and hail threat. If one storm forms and produce a decent outflow, this could then lead to more storm formation over time. Due to this, confidence in afternoon storms is low. In the late afternoon and through the evening, the cold front will approach bringing storms through the region. This would again be mostly a winds and hail threat. There is better confidence in evening storms, given forcing along the front. As the front and storms press southeast, instability will wane with nightfall and storms will slowly lose intensity. One bust potential for the evening convection is if the afternoon storms become widely scattered and the envirnoment gets worked over, this could lead to severe chances dissipating quicker with the evening round.

All in all, it is a complicated forecast with multiple moving parts that impact the following event. There is a chance for strong to severe storms from about 1PM EST - 11PM EST.

The cold front will slow and eventually stall in the vicinity of the Ohio River overnight. After the evening wave of storms, additional showers and isolated storms may move through from the west along and south of the front.

Flash flooding may become an issue with strong storms and multiple rounds of rain.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 317 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

===== Wednesday - Wednesday Night =====

Additional rain showers will be ongoing Wednesday morning due to the cold front briefly stalling across the area and pivot into a warm front. This will be the focus for continued moisture convergence along the front, with shower and storm chances to gradually shift north through the afternoon timeframe. Model soundings indicate mostly tall and skinny instability profiles, with weak shear but high PWATs. We could see PWATs upwards of 1.4-1.5", which would be above the 90th percentile of sounding climo from BNA. Showers with some embedded thunder can be expected for Wednesday, with high efficiency rain rates and potentially slower moving storm motions.
Due to this combination, some localized heavy rainfall amounts may lead to some minor flooding concerns.

By Wednesday night, the front is expected to begin to slightly lift northward, which will open up the warm sector across the area. This will allow for WAA regime to remain in place through the overnight, with additional WAA showers, and mild temps in the 60s. Some thunder will remain possible through the overnight as elevated instability lingers, but low level capping should help limit any concerns for stronger storms.

===== Thursday - Friday =====

Another wave of strong to potentially severe weather appears likely for Thursday and into Thursday night. A southern stream shortwave will eject across the central US, which will produce a sfc low that will track from the central Plains to the Great Lakes. Ahead of this system, WAA and moisture transport will ramp up Thursday morning underneath a LLJ, which will help push the stalled the frontal boundary even more north of the region.

Strong to severe storms will be possible especially Thursday afternoon and evening. With temps hitting the upper 70s and low 80s, along with sfc dewpoints rising into the low to mid-60s, sfc destabilization up to 2000 J/kg will be possible. Shear profiles continue to be enough for organized severe convection concerns, with effective bulk shear upwards of 35 kts, however, mainly looking at a wind and hail threat with any severe storms. Shear profiles continue to look mainly unidirectional, so tornado threat will not be the main concern. Can't completely rule out a possible isolated tornado threat, but too early to get into the details with lots of weather to get through before we get to that point. We'll also have to be mindful of already elevated rainfall totals being agitated by more strong convection with this wave. Isolated flood concerns will remain.

Showers and storms will remain possible through Thursday night as the cold front passes through. By sunrise Friday morning, the cold front should be along or pushing east of I-65. Showers will linger through the day behind the front though, thanks to the shortwave axis hanging up over the mid-Mississippi River Valley. Shower and storm chances will remain for the majority of Friday, but no severe weather will be expected. Doesn't look like we get a clean trough axis passage until later Friday night, when we can finally transition to a dry forecast.

===== Weekend Outlook =====

Sfc high pressure will build across the area for Saturday and Sunday, which will make for a fantastic weather forecast. Sfc flow will be from the north, which will keep temps slightly cooler, but temps in the low to mid-70s will be great. The modest temps and plenty of sunshine should make it a great weekend for outdoor activities.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 105 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Surface high pressure from the upper Ohio Valley to the mid-Atlantic coast will provide us with VFR weather and a south breeze today. A scattered cu field will likely develop this afternoon, there is evidence of this currently developing over TN. Tonight HNB/SDF will be on the edge of a strengthening LLJ over the Great Lakes, resulting in borderline LLWS during the pre-dawn hours. Shower chances and gusty SW winds will then increase tomorrow as a storm system approaches from the west. Thunderstorms will be possible later Tuesday afternoon and evening.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...None.
IN...None.