NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 1245 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Stalled front will provide a chance for isolated showers and storms through this evening.
2) High pressure brings drier conditions and clearer skies tomorrow

A weak front is currently located along the Virginia/North Carolina border and surface flow is mainly from east/northeast north of the front. Afternoon surface heating and modest residual boundary layer moisture has allowed for a few showers to already form. Stronger surface heating into the afternoon and increased convergence along the boundary should allow for an uptick in coverage over the next few hours with best confidence in rain/storms over the northwest North Carolina mountains and northward into southwest Virginia and southeast West Virginia.
Should see rain/storm activity diminish this evening with loss of heating.

Skies gradually clear overnight as high pressure continues to push into the region from the Great Lakes. Fog develops after midnight, especially across the mountains and river valleys.

Under better influence of high pressure on Saturday so drier conditions and mostly sunny skies are becoming more likely.
Perhaps a very isolated chance of a mountain shower across the North Carolina mountains from residual easterly flow, but confidence is rather high that most of the region will remain dry.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 100 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages: 1. Isolated showers and storms possible late Sunday and Monday.
2. Near normal temperatures expected through the weekend.

An upper trough will approach the eastern US through the weekend, while high pressure at the surface will keep the area dry for the start of the forecast period. The surface high will shift eastward through the period, advecting warmer air and more moisture into the area via increasing southwesterly flow. The passage of the upper trough could spark some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday, with the highest probabilities over the higher terrain, given additional orographic lift. Temperatures will be near to just below seasonal normals, though starting to trend warmer by Monday, and the added moisture will increase relative humidity through the beginning of the work week. Lows will be on the cooler side Sunday morning, thanks to the push of drier air, in the 60s for most, possibly upper 50s for the typical cool spots, like Burkes Garden, VA. High temperatures will be in the 70s for the mountains, and in the 80s elsewhere.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 100 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1. Chances of showers and storms continue through the week.
2. Temperatures on warming trend.

An upper ridge will gradually build over the western US, while troughing aloft deepens over the east through the midweek, then the ridge looks to expand eastward over the south towards the second half of the week. With the warm and moist airmass persisting over the region, expecting near daily chances of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening, tapering off after sunset with the loss of diurnal heating. The greatest probabilities for convection will be along and west of the Blue Ridge, and increased coverage on Tuesday and Wednesday as a weak frontal boundary also crosses the area. Temperatures will increase through the majority of the work week, as heights build overhead with the ridge expanding eastward. Highs will reach the mid to upper 80s in the west by the end of the week, and upper 80s to possibly low 90s for the Piedmont and Southside, and Roanoke Valley. Lows will be warm, given the more humid airmass, mainly in the upper 60s to low 70s areawide.

AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 130 PM EDT Friday...

Generally VFR across the area with a few occasional MVFR cigs mainly across the Virginia Piedmont region. Lower end VFR to continue through the evening until a better influence of high pressure can reduce cloud cover a bit. Some mountain showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorm through the evening, but not enough confidence to add any mention of TS to TAFS. Fog development seems rather likely again tonight, especially for the mountain terminals. May linger an hour or two after daybreak, giving way to VFR through late morning.

Extended Aviation Outlook...
VFR conditions expected through Sunday, except for morning IFR/LIFR fog. Moisture returns late Sunday night and into early next week and afternoon showers/storms will be possible. VFR outside of any storms.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.