Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Union, WV
July 3, 2024 1:35 AM EDT (05:35 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:04 AM Sunset 8:47 PM Moonrise 2:33 AM Moonset 6:11 PM |
Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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FXUS61 KRNK 030200 AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1000 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure remain in control of the region's weather into mid-week, allowing dry weather to continue through Wednesday.
Temperatures will start to heat up again by the 4th of July as the high starts moving east. The possibility of showers and thunderstorms will return for the latter half of the week, as a storm system moves into our area.
NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1000 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024
Dry - and quiet - weather conditions continue across the forecast area late this evening. Overall, the forecast appears to be in good shape. I made a few tweaks "here and there" based on trends in the observational data. But, in the end, there was no significant change to the forecast made.
Issued at 737 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Forecast seems to be on track early this evening, as ridging, both at the surface and aloft, continue to dominate the region's weather. A shortwave trough, embedded in the northern stream, is expected to push a storm system eastward from the Plains tomorrow, which could start impacting our area by Independence Day. Between now and then, the movement of the upper-level part of this system will gradually push the surface high northeastward as the upper-level ridge axis (more-or-less) moves overhead. The increased subsidence, combined with a more southwesterly flow on the back side of the surface high, will probably result in it feeling a bit more humid day Wednesday afternoon.
For now, though, no changes were made to the ongoing forecast.
As of 150 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Message:
1) Temperatures climb again for Wednesday.
2) No rain expected.
Skies will be mostly clear through the remainder of the day today, overnight and most of Wednesday due to surface high pressure sliding slowly to our northeast, and a powerful subtropical ridge pushing even further northeast out of the southern plains. This will also lead to increased heat and moisture in the area. Highs Wednesday mostly in the 80s for mountain areas, and just pushing into the 90s in the Piedmont, Southside and central VA. Dewpoints in the mid 60s will start to make it feel like a sticky heat Wednesday, while the previous few days have been dry enough to avoid that.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
1. Heat index values potentially exceeding advisory criteria Friday.
2. Afternoon thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday could potentially bring locally damaging winds.
Model ensembles show high confidence that the anomalously strong upper level ridge over our region is slightly flattened late this week as an upper level trof moves east from the northern plains into the western Great Lakes by Friday evening.
Despite this, a deepening southwest flow by Friday will push 850mb temps several(2-3+)standard deviations above normal, especially on Friday. Forecast high temperatures on Friday, generally following the NBM, will be within 2-5 degrees of record highs for most locations on Friday (See climate section below for record highs Friday and Saturday).
These abnormally warm temperatures combined with PWAT values climbing 1-2 standard deviations above normal for both Thursday and Friday will lead to potentially dangerous heat index values east of the Blue Ridge, especially on Friday and will highlight this threat in the HWO.
Another by-product of the flattening upper level ridge will be weak upper level disturbances emanating from northern plains/western Great Lakes upper level trof. These disturbances will help spark afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show the potential for long and skinny CAPES with a fairly healthy spread in sfc dew points and temps, creating an environment conducive for locally damaging winds and locally heavy downbursts of rain.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
1. Confidence remains high for above normal temperatures through the period with the warmest day on Saturday.
2. Unsettled weather persists through the long term period with afternoon/evening storms possible each day.
The CPC Cluster Analysis Tools indicate above average confidence in the upper level pattern through Sunday in advance of an upper level trof in the central U.S., with confidence with the location and amplitude of the trof falls Monday and Tuesday.
850mb temps continue be 1-2 standard deviations above average on Saturday with NBM forecast high temps still well into the 90s east of the Blue Ridge with heat index values nearing advisory criteria in the far east. With the model ensembles in good agreement that an upper level trof sweeps through the northeast late Saturday/Saturday night allowing a surface boundary will move into our area, which may bring us the best chance for storms in the long term period.
Forecast soundings show fairly robust DCAPE values on Saturday and even Sunday, suggesting storms will have the potential for damaging winds.
Precip chances on Sunday are highest across the VA southside and NC piedmont where the surface boundary is likely to stall and temperatures may be a degree or two cooler, but still well above average.
As upper level heights build back on Monday, PWAT anomalies also increase meaning scattered afternoon storms are possible anywhere across our forecast area with the continued threat for isolated damaging winds. The Colorado State Machine-Learning Probabilities Prediction Page keeps some risk for severe weather in our area each day through the period.
AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 737 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024
Satellite imagery shows SCTD cloud cover across the forecast area early this evening, with the lowest heights averaging between 050- 060. Expect this coverage to diminish this evening, with basically a CAVOK forecast through the rest of the forecast period. No flight category reductions are anticipated as most cloud cover through 04/0000 UTC should be Ac/Cs. Wind speeds should mainly be from the SE-S at speeds AOB 10 kts.
OUTLOOK WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday night: CAVOK conditions. No restrictions expected.
Independence Day: Odds of SHRA/TSRA increase from the W by Thursday afternoon as a storm system starts impacting the region. Flight category reductions will be possible.
Friday-Sunday: SCTD SHRA/TSRA remain possible as a storm system continues impacting the region. Flight category reductions remain possible.
CLIMATE
Records for Friday July 5th: BLF: 93/1948 BCB: 94/1930 ROA: 100/1999 LYH: 98/1934 and 1999 DAN: 103/1919
Records for Saturday July 6th: BLF: 92/1948 and 2010 BCB: 94/1930 and 2010 ROA: 100/1977 and 1999 LYH: 98/1893 DAN: 102/1990
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1000 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure remain in control of the region's weather into mid-week, allowing dry weather to continue through Wednesday.
Temperatures will start to heat up again by the 4th of July as the high starts moving east. The possibility of showers and thunderstorms will return for the latter half of the week, as a storm system moves into our area.
NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1000 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024
Dry - and quiet - weather conditions continue across the forecast area late this evening. Overall, the forecast appears to be in good shape. I made a few tweaks "here and there" based on trends in the observational data. But, in the end, there was no significant change to the forecast made.
Issued at 737 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Forecast seems to be on track early this evening, as ridging, both at the surface and aloft, continue to dominate the region's weather. A shortwave trough, embedded in the northern stream, is expected to push a storm system eastward from the Plains tomorrow, which could start impacting our area by Independence Day. Between now and then, the movement of the upper-level part of this system will gradually push the surface high northeastward as the upper-level ridge axis (more-or-less) moves overhead. The increased subsidence, combined with a more southwesterly flow on the back side of the surface high, will probably result in it feeling a bit more humid day Wednesday afternoon.
For now, though, no changes were made to the ongoing forecast.
As of 150 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Message:
1) Temperatures climb again for Wednesday.
2) No rain expected.
Skies will be mostly clear through the remainder of the day today, overnight and most of Wednesday due to surface high pressure sliding slowly to our northeast, and a powerful subtropical ridge pushing even further northeast out of the southern plains. This will also lead to increased heat and moisture in the area. Highs Wednesday mostly in the 80s for mountain areas, and just pushing into the 90s in the Piedmont, Southside and central VA. Dewpoints in the mid 60s will start to make it feel like a sticky heat Wednesday, while the previous few days have been dry enough to avoid that.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
1. Heat index values potentially exceeding advisory criteria Friday.
2. Afternoon thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday could potentially bring locally damaging winds.
Model ensembles show high confidence that the anomalously strong upper level ridge over our region is slightly flattened late this week as an upper level trof moves east from the northern plains into the western Great Lakes by Friday evening.
Despite this, a deepening southwest flow by Friday will push 850mb temps several(2-3+)standard deviations above normal, especially on Friday. Forecast high temperatures on Friday, generally following the NBM, will be within 2-5 degrees of record highs for most locations on Friday (See climate section below for record highs Friday and Saturday).
These abnormally warm temperatures combined with PWAT values climbing 1-2 standard deviations above normal for both Thursday and Friday will lead to potentially dangerous heat index values east of the Blue Ridge, especially on Friday and will highlight this threat in the HWO.
Another by-product of the flattening upper level ridge will be weak upper level disturbances emanating from northern plains/western Great Lakes upper level trof. These disturbances will help spark afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show the potential for long and skinny CAPES with a fairly healthy spread in sfc dew points and temps, creating an environment conducive for locally damaging winds and locally heavy downbursts of rain.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
1. Confidence remains high for above normal temperatures through the period with the warmest day on Saturday.
2. Unsettled weather persists through the long term period with afternoon/evening storms possible each day.
The CPC Cluster Analysis Tools indicate above average confidence in the upper level pattern through Sunday in advance of an upper level trof in the central U.S., with confidence with the location and amplitude of the trof falls Monday and Tuesday.
850mb temps continue be 1-2 standard deviations above average on Saturday with NBM forecast high temps still well into the 90s east of the Blue Ridge with heat index values nearing advisory criteria in the far east. With the model ensembles in good agreement that an upper level trof sweeps through the northeast late Saturday/Saturday night allowing a surface boundary will move into our area, which may bring us the best chance for storms in the long term period.
Forecast soundings show fairly robust DCAPE values on Saturday and even Sunday, suggesting storms will have the potential for damaging winds.
Precip chances on Sunday are highest across the VA southside and NC piedmont where the surface boundary is likely to stall and temperatures may be a degree or two cooler, but still well above average.
As upper level heights build back on Monday, PWAT anomalies also increase meaning scattered afternoon storms are possible anywhere across our forecast area with the continued threat for isolated damaging winds. The Colorado State Machine-Learning Probabilities Prediction Page keeps some risk for severe weather in our area each day through the period.
AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 737 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024
Satellite imagery shows SCTD cloud cover across the forecast area early this evening, with the lowest heights averaging between 050- 060. Expect this coverage to diminish this evening, with basically a CAVOK forecast through the rest of the forecast period. No flight category reductions are anticipated as most cloud cover through 04/0000 UTC should be Ac/Cs. Wind speeds should mainly be from the SE-S at speeds AOB 10 kts.
OUTLOOK WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday night: CAVOK conditions. No restrictions expected.
Independence Day: Odds of SHRA/TSRA increase from the W by Thursday afternoon as a storm system starts impacting the region. Flight category reductions will be possible.
Friday-Sunday: SCTD SHRA/TSRA remain possible as a storm system continues impacting the region. Flight category reductions remain possible.
CLIMATE
Records for Friday July 5th: BLF: 93/1948 BCB: 94/1930 ROA: 100/1999 LYH: 98/1934 and 1999 DAN: 103/1919
Records for Saturday July 6th: BLF: 92/1948 and 2010 BCB: 94/1930 and 2010 ROA: 100/1977 and 1999 LYH: 98/1893 DAN: 102/1990
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KLWB
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KLWB
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KLWB
Wind History graph: LWB
(wind in knots)
Blacksburg, VA,
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