Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Coal City, WV

KEY MESSAGES
- 1) Strong to severe thunderstorms possible across the area this afternoon and evening with damaging winds being the main threat with any organized convection.

- 2) Well above normal temperatures possible Sunday through Tuesday. Some locations have a chance at breaking records on Monday.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Morning showers are exiting eastward out the mountains this hour. Satellite observations show clearing occurring ahead of the cold front which is approaching our western periphery.
Scattered thunderstorms and showers are manifesting out ahead of the front across OH, western PA, and northern WV courtesy of forcing from the front. The atmosphere will continue to destabilize where there is clearing.

There is marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe weather with any organized convection that occurs today, mostly across our northern tier counties of WV and OH, as well as across the mountains later this afternoon. The main risk with these would be damaging winds, but there is a low chance that hail may form across the north. Most likely timing is between 2 PM and 6 PM today. At this time, a severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely.

Lingering showers/drizzle are possible tonight into Thursday morning across the mountains. Drier weather is expected to arrive with high pressure Thursday night through Friday. Another round of thunderstorms is possible for Saturday with a front affecting the area and much warmer temperatures arriving.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

This "roller coaster" of a spring pattern continues through next week. Temperatures will be below normal Thursday behind this cold front. Most of the lowlands will be in the upper 50s to the mid 60s; the mountains in the 40s and 50s. Lows Thursday night through Friday morning may warrant some patchy frost across the higher elevations of Randolph and Pocahontas counties. Temperatures will then return to around normal Friday and then above normal Saturday.

The real feature will be a miniature heat wave that arrives Sunday and lasts through Tuesday with a strong Bermuda High that will set up off the coast. This time period will feature well above normal, maybe even record breaking temperatures. The lowlands can expect highs reaching the low to mid 90s each afternoon, while the mountains rise into the 80s and lower 90s.
A few heat sink valley locations across the area may end up hitting the upper 90s. Monday will be the hottest day across our area.

Temperatures will moderate some Wednesday as the ridge breaks down some, but will still be above normal, falling back into the 80s for most with the lowland valleys getting close to 90 degrees.

*SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR PROJECTED HIGHS AND PREVIOUS DAILY RECORDS*

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Thunderstorm activity has moved out of the area with EKN the only one with VCTS for the next few hours. The cold front is quickly exiting to the east with northwesterly flow behind the feature with occasional gusts in the low 20s. Expect MVFR stratus to filter in for the remainder of the TAF period with some IFR at EKN in the late morning. Clouds will lift out to VFR by tomorrow mid to late afternoon. Winds will stay elevated enough to deter fog formation tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 EDT 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 CRW CONSISTENCY M L M M H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M L L M M H H M PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M H H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR ceilings possible through Thursday afternoon across the northeastern mountains of WV with stubborn stratocumulus deck.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.