Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ensign, KS
May 5, 2024 4:33 PM CDT (21:33 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:37 AM Sunset 8:35 PM Moonrise 4:10 AM Moonset 5:03 PM |
Area Discussion for - Dodge City, KS
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FXUS63 KDDC 052053 AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 353 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Severe thunderstorms are possible from mid-day Monday into the afternoon along and east of a line Scott City to Garden City.
But these storms are expected to increase in severity farther east during early to mid afternoon, with very large hail and tornadoes expected.
- The western limit of severe weather Monday depends on how early in the day storms develop.
- Critical Fire Weather conditions are forecast over extreme southwest Kansas Monday Afternoon.
- A mainly dry weather pattern will develop Monday evening and persist for several days.
- There are small chances for rain next weekend.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
Having been suppressed into central and south Texas by overnight convection, rich moisture (mid 60s dewpoints or higher) will be slow to return ahead of an intense, negatively tilted upper level system. Low clouds and possibly patchy drizzle will develop later tonight as moisture increases into a relatively cool air mass. Although the moisture return ahead of the robust upper level system will not be ideal, mid level cooling along with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s will lead to moderate surface based CAPE by late morning into mid day from Cimarron and Dodge City north to WaKeeney. Given the strong mid level cooling, the "lid" or capping inversion above the moist layer will erode, allowing for thunderstorm development by late morning. These storms could contain large hail and damaging winds.
By early to mid afternoon, continued moisture return with dewpoints in the mid 60s to possibly upper 60s is expected along and east of a line from Coldwater to Hays, leading to strong surface based CAPE as high as 2500 to 3000 j/kg. A nne to ssw oriented dry pacific front will overtake the dry line over south central Kansas, with the dry line extending almost straight south from the front into Oklahoma and Texas. A subtle tropical warm front, representing the leading edge of higher dewpoints (currently over south Texas) will extend eastward across southern Kansas. The intersection of this ill defined warm front with the dryline and locations south from there will be a favored area for rotating storms with possible tornadoes per the moderate risk issued by the Storm Prediction Center.
Hodographs across south central Kansas are much more favorable for tornadoes than areas farther north and west. There is less pronounced backing of the mid level winds in this area owing to weaker mid level cold advection, which leads to the more favorable hodographs. A few strong tornadoes are possible, with the highest chances along and east of a line from Kinsley to Coldwater, including the counties of Pratt, Barber and Stafford and possibly as far west as Comanche, Kiowa and Edwards counties. the SPC outlook indicates 15-30% chances of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point in these areas.
As far as rain amounts are concerned, this will not be a widespread rain event. Instead t-storms will be isolated to scattered, with some locations seeing brief heavy rains and hail while others get no precipitation. T-storm chances are 30-50% along and east of a line from Wakeeney to Dodge City, with highest chances over central and south central Kansas as the storms become more organized.
Behind the dry front Monday afternoon, expect west winds at 20-30 mph, along with much drier air. Highs should reach into the upper 70s to upper 80s, with the warmest readings just behind the dry front during early to mid afternoon.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
Downslope will persist Tuesday as Monday's front stalls and washes out, allowing temperatures to reach into the 78 to 85 degree range. Cooler air will arrive by Wednesday as upper level troughing deepens over the northern plains and slowly shifts eastward through late week. Another upper level trough will form over the Desert Southwest by late week. However, a strong upper level shortwave trough moving southward out of Canada will tend to shunt any mid level frontogenesis to the south of Kansas.
However, there are small chances for rain, especially in extreme southwest Kansas and along the OKlahoma state line by Friday night and into Sunday. The ECMWF and CMCE ensembles indicate light amounts of rain, with probabilities in the 10-20% range of .5" or greater in the ECMWF ensemble mean. The CMCE mean indicates less rainfall, with only 10-20 % chances of .1" or greater.
Overnight lows will be cool, but cloud cover may tend to keep temperatures from bottoming out any lower than the 40s by mid to late week and into the weekend.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 103 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
South to southeast winds will increase to 20 kts at KLBL, KGCK and KDDC as a low level jet forms tonight. With moisture advection and a slight upslope component to the wind, IFR/LIFR CIGS will develop by 06-08z. A strong upper level disturbance will approach the dry line by late morning Monday. Scattered thunderstorms with hail and high winds could affect KGCK and KDDC between 16 and 19z before winds shift to the southwest and west. Storms may affect KHYS between 18-21z.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
West winds at 20-30 mph with gusts as high as 35-40 mph will develop across west central Kansas by late morning Monday and then persist through the afternoon. The stronger winds will be across Hamilton and Kearny counties. Relative humidity will be as low as 10%. Therefore, critical fire weather conditions will exist across extreme western Kansas. Winds may be a little less near the Oklahoma state line, with near critical fire weather.
A red flag warning was issued for the southwestern counties of Kansas. The Fire Weather Watch for Finney and Haskell counties was cancelled due to recent heavy rains and green up.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Monday for KSZ061-062-074-075-084>086.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 353 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Severe thunderstorms are possible from mid-day Monday into the afternoon along and east of a line Scott City to Garden City.
But these storms are expected to increase in severity farther east during early to mid afternoon, with very large hail and tornadoes expected.
- The western limit of severe weather Monday depends on how early in the day storms develop.
- Critical Fire Weather conditions are forecast over extreme southwest Kansas Monday Afternoon.
- A mainly dry weather pattern will develop Monday evening and persist for several days.
- There are small chances for rain next weekend.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
Having been suppressed into central and south Texas by overnight convection, rich moisture (mid 60s dewpoints or higher) will be slow to return ahead of an intense, negatively tilted upper level system. Low clouds and possibly patchy drizzle will develop later tonight as moisture increases into a relatively cool air mass. Although the moisture return ahead of the robust upper level system will not be ideal, mid level cooling along with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s will lead to moderate surface based CAPE by late morning into mid day from Cimarron and Dodge City north to WaKeeney. Given the strong mid level cooling, the "lid" or capping inversion above the moist layer will erode, allowing for thunderstorm development by late morning. These storms could contain large hail and damaging winds.
By early to mid afternoon, continued moisture return with dewpoints in the mid 60s to possibly upper 60s is expected along and east of a line from Coldwater to Hays, leading to strong surface based CAPE as high as 2500 to 3000 j/kg. A nne to ssw oriented dry pacific front will overtake the dry line over south central Kansas, with the dry line extending almost straight south from the front into Oklahoma and Texas. A subtle tropical warm front, representing the leading edge of higher dewpoints (currently over south Texas) will extend eastward across southern Kansas. The intersection of this ill defined warm front with the dryline and locations south from there will be a favored area for rotating storms with possible tornadoes per the moderate risk issued by the Storm Prediction Center.
Hodographs across south central Kansas are much more favorable for tornadoes than areas farther north and west. There is less pronounced backing of the mid level winds in this area owing to weaker mid level cold advection, which leads to the more favorable hodographs. A few strong tornadoes are possible, with the highest chances along and east of a line from Kinsley to Coldwater, including the counties of Pratt, Barber and Stafford and possibly as far west as Comanche, Kiowa and Edwards counties. the SPC outlook indicates 15-30% chances of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point in these areas.
As far as rain amounts are concerned, this will not be a widespread rain event. Instead t-storms will be isolated to scattered, with some locations seeing brief heavy rains and hail while others get no precipitation. T-storm chances are 30-50% along and east of a line from Wakeeney to Dodge City, with highest chances over central and south central Kansas as the storms become more organized.
Behind the dry front Monday afternoon, expect west winds at 20-30 mph, along with much drier air. Highs should reach into the upper 70s to upper 80s, with the warmest readings just behind the dry front during early to mid afternoon.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
Downslope will persist Tuesday as Monday's front stalls and washes out, allowing temperatures to reach into the 78 to 85 degree range. Cooler air will arrive by Wednesday as upper level troughing deepens over the northern plains and slowly shifts eastward through late week. Another upper level trough will form over the Desert Southwest by late week. However, a strong upper level shortwave trough moving southward out of Canada will tend to shunt any mid level frontogenesis to the south of Kansas.
However, there are small chances for rain, especially in extreme southwest Kansas and along the OKlahoma state line by Friday night and into Sunday. The ECMWF and CMCE ensembles indicate light amounts of rain, with probabilities in the 10-20% range of .5" or greater in the ECMWF ensemble mean. The CMCE mean indicates less rainfall, with only 10-20 % chances of .1" or greater.
Overnight lows will be cool, but cloud cover may tend to keep temperatures from bottoming out any lower than the 40s by mid to late week and into the weekend.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 103 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
South to southeast winds will increase to 20 kts at KLBL, KGCK and KDDC as a low level jet forms tonight. With moisture advection and a slight upslope component to the wind, IFR/LIFR CIGS will develop by 06-08z. A strong upper level disturbance will approach the dry line by late morning Monday. Scattered thunderstorms with hail and high winds could affect KGCK and KDDC between 16 and 19z before winds shift to the southwest and west. Storms may affect KHYS between 18-21z.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
West winds at 20-30 mph with gusts as high as 35-40 mph will develop across west central Kansas by late morning Monday and then persist through the afternoon. The stronger winds will be across Hamilton and Kearny counties. Relative humidity will be as low as 10%. Therefore, critical fire weather conditions will exist across extreme western Kansas. Winds may be a little less near the Oklahoma state line, with near critical fire weather.
A red flag warning was issued for the southwestern counties of Kansas. The Fire Weather Watch for Finney and Haskell counties was cancelled due to recent heavy rains and green up.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Monday for KSZ061-062-074-075-084>086.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KDDC DODGE CITY RGNL,KS | 22 sm | 41 min | S 16G23 | 9 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 66°F | 55°F | 68% | 29.89 |
Dodge City, KS,
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