DISCUSSION
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Overnight water vapor loop and RAP analysis showed a rather disorganized large scale pattern comprising of a broad, quasi- stationary upper low across the southeastern Great Plains into the Ozarks...and a fairly strong upper level jet streak across California into Utah. Between these two synoptic features was a north-to-south deformation axis, which is where some isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms developed -- particularly across the eastern Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle.

As we head deeper into the weekend, the approaching upper level jet out west will impinge on the Central Plains, leading to further deepening of the leeside trough. This will also enhance the lower tropospheric warming going into early-mid next week. As far as the dailies go, we will have one more day similar to yesterday with respect to temperature with highs generally in the mid to upper 90s.
We will see another afternoon of winds 15 to 25 mph...with the 20+ mph sustained winds covering a larger portion of southwest Kansas as the MSLP gradient will be a touch tighter with the deeper leeside low.

Thunderstorms developing across the higher terrain of Colorado will coalesce into one or more small to moderately size cluster(s) of storms mid to late evening as they move east into far western Kansas...generally along/north of I-70 closer to the latitude of the upper level jet exit region. 00Z run of the HRRR shows a fairly strong signal (using 25 dBZ Composite Reflectivity 50% probabilistic field with a neighborhood radius of 15 miles) of storms moving due east late in the night with the convective signal weakening after midnight. There is enough signal to have at least 20% POPs north of Highway 4 late tonight as a result.

On to the excessive heat component of the forecast, signals continue to point toward at least three days of very hot temperatures -- among the hottest of the summer thus far. Latest NBM shows a similar pattern in the Probability of 105+ field...with 30-50% probabilities for both Tuesday and Wednesday arcing from roughly Johnson northeastward to Scott City-Gove, then east along I-70 across Trego and Ellis County. The NBM shows another smaller max in this field across the Red Hills region, which is climatologically the hottest portion of our forecast area. The Red Hills region of Comanche, Barber, and north/northeastward into Pratt County will need to be watched closely for dangerous Heat Index values as this will likely be the best juxtaposition of higher dewpoints and temperatures of 103F+. It seems quite likely that both Tuesday and Wednesday will see Heat Index values approaching, if not briefly touching 110F across the east central/southeastern portion of our forecast area -- especially Barber County. Of concern, especially with our agriculture interests, is the overnight relief (or lack thereof)
during next week's heat wave as overnight lows may not get much below 75F, especially east of the Highway 283 corridor.

The duration of this dangerous heat wave is still a bit uncertain, but there is some increasing signal of a cold front around Thursday of next week, which would provide both an increasing chance of rain and a pull back in daytime temperature.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 521 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Aviation weather will remain quiet, albeit breezy and hot.
Flight category will remain VFR through this period, however up at HYS terminal, scattered late night thunderstorms will be possible in the 05Z to 08Z time frame toward the latter portion of this TAF period. At this time, however, thunderstorms will not be included in the TAFs.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.