Wilroads Gardens, KS Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wilroads Gardens, KS

April 21, 2024 6:18 AM CDT (11:18 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:54 AM   Sunset 8:23 PM
Moonrise 5:27 PM   Moonset 4:53 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wilroads Gardens, KS
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Area Discussion for - Dodge City, KS
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FXUS63 KDDC 211030 AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 530 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong southwest winds and warm temperatures Monday afternoon will lead to fire weather concerns.

- Cold frontal passage early Tuesday will bring more strong winds, this time out of the north to northeast.

- Severe weather potential exists Thursday afternoon, but plenty of uncertainty remains.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Latest water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveals west-northwest flow is in place over the central plains between weak ridging over the western CONUS and troughing over the eastern CONUS. Embedded within this synoptic pattern is a shortwave trough currently placed over central NE, which is responsible for the current widespread cloud cover and light drizzle across our area. As this feature continues to dig southeast with time, reaching the Ozarks by 18Z Sunday, DNVA in its wake will result in clouds eroding and strong solar insolation beginning. This will support afternoon temperatures warming into the low to mid 60s. Sunday night, short range guidance indicates surface high pressure will slide southeast as low pressure builds over the northern plains and central Canada, fostering an increase in winds out of the southwest.
Radiational cooling will therefore be limited, and lows will be in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Daytime Monday, the tight surface pressure gradient will be maintained across southwest KS and combine with boundary layer mixing to result in another windy spring day for our area.
Southwest winds will be sustained in the 25-35 mph range with gusts up to 45 mph. These downsloping winds will also aid in a substantial increase in temperatures as afternoon highs spike into the upper 70s southeast to mid 80s northwest. These windy and warm conditions engender fire weather concerns as well, especially across the west and northwest zones where dewpoints will be lowest. Although, the lowest dewpoints will be co- located with the weakest winds. Nevertheless, fire weather headlines may be forthcoming.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Monday night into Tuesday morning, medium range ensembles suggest an upper level shortwave trough will dig from the northern plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region, sending a cold front southward through the central plains early Tuesday morning. Strong north to northeast post-frontal winds will spread across southwest KS daytime Tuesday, sustained in the 20-30 mph range with gusts up to 40 mph, bringing cooler temperatures as afternoon highs stay in the 70s. An off-chance of precipitation may accompany this frontal passage, favoring the northeast zones, but this seems unlikely, and pops were limited to the slight chance category (15-24%). On Wednesday, upper level ridging will move over the High Plains as the next trough begins to impinge on the far southwest CONUS. Gusty southeasterly winds will return as lee troughing rebuilds across eastern CO, but Wednesday will be otherwise quiet with afternoon highs in the 70s.

12Z Thursday, ensembles suggest the upper level trough will be located over the Desert Southwest, and eject rapidly northeast through the morning and early afternoon, reaching the central Rockies by 00Z Friday. In response, the lee cyclone in eastern CO will deepen to ~990-mb, with cyclonic flow around it supporting significant theta-e advection over southwest KS.
The strong kinematic environment ahead of the trough and improving thermodynamics imply a severe thunderstorm risk may materialize for portions of our area, and the Storm Prediction Center does outline roughly the eastern 2/3rds of our area in a 15% risk area. However 700-mb temperatures of +8C and potential morning showers/convection cast considerable doubt on any severe weather prospects.

In the wake of this wave Friday and Saturday, medium range ensembles suggest upper level shortwave ridging will dominate the weather across southwest KS as the next trough takes shape over the western CONUS. Generally quiet weather can be expected these days, with afternoon highs in the mid/upper 80s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
Issued at 530 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Infrared satellite imagery shows widespread VFR overcast skies across southwest KS. Short range guidance suggests cigs will drop into MVFR for a handful of hours this morning before returning to VFR by late morning/early afternoon. Otherwise, winds will remain light and variable until this afternoon/evening when a slight uptick out of the south occurs into the 10-15 kt range.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KDDC DODGE CITY RGNL,KS 8 sm26 minWNW 0610 smOvercast37°F32°F81%30.40
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GEOS Local Image of southern planes -- texas   
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Dodge City, KS,



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