NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

FXUS63 KDDC 031927 AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 227 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Updated Mesoscale

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
Issued at 227 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Severe thunderstorm watch #699 is in effect for the northern zones. An additional watch is expected from SPC for the remainder of SW KS. 18z special DDC sounding revealed unidirectional SWly flow through the column and straight hodographs, supportive of splitting supercells and large hail production. Strongest CAPE/shear environment was focused across the west and southwest zones at 2 pm. Storms over GLD's CWA are expected to build southward into this instability axis through 5 pm. As such initiation is expected to be further west than planned, closer to US 83 as opposed to US 283. Favorable environment for supercells is expected to translate eastward into the central CWA into this evening. Where storms can maintain a discrete supercell mode, and surface winds can remain backed SEly, a tornado risk is apparent.
Surface analysis at 230 pm shows very little SEly backing in the region, so this is an ingredient we will be watching, to see if it improves into this evening.

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Midday satellite imagery clearly showed a strong shortwave exiting the I-25 corridor in central Colorado, approaching SW KS.
Mesoanalysis outlined convective instability increasing across the far west/southwest zones as of 145 pm, with moderate CAPE/shear to support organized/severe thunderstorms. As the shortwave and its attendant forcing for ascent impinges on this moisture/instability axis, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop rapidly early to mid afternoon along the dryline draped over SW KS. Latest thinking this will be along the US 83/283 corridors, as shown by 12z ARW and other CAMs. Supercells are expected initially into the early evening, with large hail (up to 2 inch diameter) likely in the strongest cores. With time, given strong linear forcing and the quickly advancing shortwave, any supercells will congeal into a squall line over the eastern and northeast zones this evening. It is this area east of US 283 where hail/wind is most probable, and thunderstorm coverage will be highest this evening. Included severe wording in the eastern grid zones. Where 1) storms can remain in a discrete supercell mode and 2) surface winds remain more backed SEly, a tornado risk is apparent during the early evening. Storms are expected to be confined to the southeast zones by midnight, ahead of the advancing cold front. Some subsidence will clear the sky at least partially overnight, with mid level clouds and maybe a few postfrontal showers over the southeast zones around sunrise Wednesday. Light north winds will prevail late tonight across all zones, with seasonably cool temperatures in the upper 40s northwest, to the upper 50s southeast.

North winds will be quite elevated for several hours Wednesday morning behind the departing shortwave, and loaded the 90%ile NBM for these wind/wind gust grids. Decreasing northeast winds and increasing sunshine will provide for an enjoyable early fall afternoon with comfortable temperatures in the lower to mid 70s.

Wednesday night/Thursday morning is expected to be even cooler, with stronger radiational cooling and lighter winds allowing temperatures to fall into the 40s at most locations.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Key Messages:

-With the exception of a few rain showers northeast counties Friday morning, the entire long term forecast is dry through next Tuesday 10 October.

-A strong cold front will provide strong north winds Friday.

-The coldest temperatures so far this young fall season are expected Saturday morning, with a frost/freeze expected north of Dodge City.

Another pleasant autumn day expected Thursday, under quiet dry NW flow as a PNA synoptic pattern develops over North America.
Light north winds will continue, but with near full sunshine and still no cool advection, afternoon temperatures will average near early October normals, in the 70s.

A strong dry cold front is expected to be near the northern zones sunrise Friday, racing south through SW KS Friday morning. With the strongest post frontal winds timed favorably with the diurnal heating cycle, a mixed boundary layer will easily allow for north gusts of at least 40 mph for several hours Friday. Increased winds over the NBM, using the 90%ile. North winds of 20-30 mph will be common midday Friday, before slowly diminishing in the afternoon.
Ensemble mslp plots and the 12z ECMWF forecast a 1038 mb surface high surging southward on the high plains early Friday, and this will our first true taste of crisp invigorating air from Canada.
Models remain consistent generating some light post frontal rain showers favoring the northeast zones early Friday, but NBM probability for anything more than 0.10 inch is very low.

The coldest night so far this fall season is expected Friday night and Saturday morning, as a 1030+ mb surface anticyclone slides directly south over SW KS. Radiational cooling looks near ideal at sunrise Saturday, and NBM min temp grids are trending colder.
The forecast for Saturday morning will now call for 30s for all zones, with frost likely, especially north of US 50. A light freeze is becoming increasingly likely for northern zones, along and north of K-96, and frost/freeze headlines are expected to be required. Included widespread frost in the grids northern zones Saturday morning.

Quiet dry weather is expected over the weekend and early next week, with a pronounced warming trend Saturday through Tuesday.
Afternoon temperatures will range from 60s Saturday, back to the mid 80s Tuesday. A long stretch of quiet beautiful October fall weather is on the way.

AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1010 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

VFR will prevail through this TAF period, outside of any thunderstorms. Strong south winds will continue at all airports through about 21z Tue, gusting again 30-35 kts. During the 19-21z time range, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from near HYS to near LBL. Included only VCTS/CB for now, until direct terminal impacts become more obvious. Some storms may be severe with large hail and outflow winds to near 60 kts. A cold front will bring a north wind shift, with light north winds continuing through 12z Wed. After 15z Wed, strong north winds are expected, gusting near 30 kts.



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DDC 52 75 49 78 / 40 10 0 0 GCK 50 73 47 75 / 10 0 0 0 EHA 49 72 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 50 73 47 77 / 10 10 0 0 HYS 52 74 48 75 / 60 0 0 0 P28 60 75 52 79 / 70 20 10 10

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Dodge City, KS,