Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wilroads Gardens, KS

DISCUSSION
Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025

07z surface and upper air analysis shows a nearly stationary upper level low and trough in the northern plains with an upper level shortwave and weak jet streak riding the northwest flow from central Wyoming through central Missouri. A stationary frontal boundary is draped through north central Kansas with a surface low in the northwest Texas panhandle.

For today the upper level 500 mb flow will continue out of the northwest and with winds increasing in the jet streak we should see lift in the mid levels as the left exit region of the jet enters into north central Kansas. The stationary frontal boundary should continue to generally be in an area along the highway 50 corridor with the weak surface low in northeast New Mexico setting the stage for a weak baroclinic zone where 850 mb temperatures will be around 20 (C) in the warmer layer in southwest Kansas and 14 (C) in the cooler layer in northern Kansas. By late afternoon there should be sufficient lift in the mid levels some isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop between 21-03Z with CAMs showing output of storms ranging from north central Kansas to as far south and west as a Ness City to Pratt line. Given the low confidence in storm placement I kept POPs around 20% mainly in north central through central Kansas this afternoon for a few pop up storms that should produce only light rain amounts.

Tonight as upper level convergence in Texas strengthens the surface low and an upper high in the northern plains builds...we should see a strong cold front for May standards pass through western Kansas during the evening and be south of the Kansas-Oklahoma border by Thursday morning. Isallobaric winds as the front passes could briefly increase to sustained winds 20-30 mph with stronger gusts for a 3-6 hour period between 9 pm - 3am and then winds should diminish and the surface high builds through the night. Thursday we should see mild and slightly cooler highs in the upper 70s.

The upcoming holiday weekend continues to show an active weather pattern with the highest probabilities of QPF in central Kansas and lower probabilities as you move west. The general setup shows a stationary to warm front providing a baroclinic zone Friday into Saturday roughly along the I-70 corridor. Upper level winds will transition from a ridge on Friday to an approaching upper level trough during the weekend with the 700 mb shortwaves and best lift being shown in central Kansas. NBM probabilities of 0.25 inches of rain or more on Friday and Saturday continue to be highest along and east of a Hays to Coldwater line (20-30%) and generally 10% or less as you go west. Saturday should see a wide range in temperatures as highs north of the warm front will be in the 70s and south of the warm front will be in the mid 90s which will highlight the stronger baroclinic zone for thunderstorm development. CSU-MLP severe probabilities at this time continue to be low (~5% wind and hail)
so severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

VFR flight category for the next 24 hours. Main weather feature will be a cold front that will pass through western Kansas Wednesday evening briefly increasing the post frontal winds to 15-20 kts sustained and gusts up to 30 kts. The front will pass through HYS around 00Z and DDC, GCK, and LBL between 03-05Z. A weak shortwave could lead to some isolated thunderstorms around HYS between 00-03 but given the coverage and low probability of storms the TS wording has been left out at this time.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.