NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
As of 105 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Clearing skies and much cooler temperatures for tonight.

Temps as of 1 AM ranged from the lower 50s NW to the mid-upper 60s SE with most inland areas in the mid-upper 50s. Skies continue to clear behind the cold front as cooler, drier air filters in. Winds remain 5-10 mph overnight (lower across the Piedmont). As such, while temps will cool, they likely won't cool to their full potential. The exception is the Piedmont where winds are more likely to become calm. Expect morning lows in the upper 40s NW, lower 50s inland, mid 50s E of I-95, and lower 60s along the coast. Additionally, there may be small patches of fog in the NW Piedmont (where temps cool to the dew point).

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 230 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and cooler Sunday into Monday with near record lows possible Monday morning in some areas.

Aloft, an anomalously strong trough lingers across the E CONUS Sun into early Monday, before gradually moving off to the NE Monday night through Tuesday. At the sfc, a strong area of high pressure (~1025mb) is forecast to build ESE from the mid- MS/lower OH Valley later Sunday into Monday. This will allow for Fall- like temps Sunday with highs only in the low-mid 70s despite full sunshine (there may be a few Bay streamers w/ a variably cloudy sky Sunday morning across southside Hampton Roads). Dew pts Sunday are expected to range from the low 40s NW to the mid 50s SE.

With high pressure building across the area Sunday night into Monday, expect calm winds at the sfc, allowing for efficient radiational cooling. As such, expect morning lows on Mon in the mid-upper 40s inland to lower 50s inland, with mid- upper 50s along the coast. Some of the most sheltered areas of the northern piedmont may approach lows around 40 F. In fact, daily record lows may be threatened at a few of our climate sites (mainly SBY/ECG). Temperatures warm a few degrees higher Monday compared to Sunday, ranging from the mid/upper 70s to around 80F with light winds and a mainly sunny sky. Mon night/Tue morning will be cool, but not as cool as Mon morning with min temps in the upper 40s to lower 50s inland, and upper 50s to around 60F along the coast. An upper level ridge across the central CONUS expands east towards the local area on Tuesday, allowing temperatures to warm back into the 80s (generally mid 80s inland and around 80F near the coast).

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

Key messages:

- Dry weather with mild days and cool nights persists through next week.

Ensemble guidance suggest that a surface high pressure will linger over the area through the week, allowing for dry weather to persist.
A trough will slide offshore Tuesday allowing a ridge to develop across the Eastern United States through next week. As such, expect a return to milder weather with highs in the mid 80s for most each day. Lows will be cooler, gradually warming each night. Expect lows in the mid 50s inland (lower 60s along the coast) Tue night, upper 50s inland (mid 60s along the coast) Wed and Thu nights, and upper 50s to lower 60s inland (upper 60s along the coast) Sat night.

AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 115 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 06z taf period. Cooler, drier air continues to filter in behind the cold front with clearing skies. Some SCT stratocu remains across far SE VA/NE NC early this morning. However, expect these clouds to continue to clear from N to S over the next few hours (apart from a few bay streamers near ORF). ECG/ORF may hold on to some occasional cloud cover (FEW- SCT) into the early afternoon with SKC conditions expected at all other terminals. Winds were N 5-10 kt early this morning (apart from 10-15 kt at ORF/ECG). A brief uptick in winds is possible early this morning with winds diminishing to 5-10 kt by this afternoon. Winds become calm overnight as high pressure builds in.

Outlook: VFR conditions continue into early next week as high pressure builds into the region.

MARINE
As of 900 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Northerly winds remain 15-25 kt tonight behind a cold front.
Small Craft Advisories are in effect through at least Sunday morning for all area waters.

- More benign marine conditions return early next week.

- There is a high risk for rip currents across southern beaches Sunday, with a moderate risk for northern beaches.

Well-advertised cold front has pushed through the area this evening, with the latest radar and observational data as of 845 PM indicating the front resides S and SE of the Albemarle Sound. Northerly winds picked up substantially along the front to 20-30 kt with a few gusts up to 35 kt. Winds have backed off a few knots, but are still solidly within SCA-levels (15-25 kt with gusts 25-30 kt). Winds likely remain elevated with similar gusts through the overnight hours as additional dry and cool air pushes across the waters. Highest winds will be in the lower bay and coastal waters S of Cape Charles Light. NNW winds quickly diminish Sunday morning as high pressure slides in over the area. By early afternoon, winds will be down to 10-15kt, then 5- 10kt by the early evening. High pressure remains in control through much of the week. Winds will generally be 5-10kt and of varying direction as high pressure repositions itself.

Seas have increased in the post-frontal regime, with 3-4 ft S and 4-6 ft N. Waves in the bay have also increased to 2-4 ft (highest southern bay). Seas are forecast to increase further through the night given the elevated winds and fetch, especially S of Parramore Island. With the wind direction turning more offshore, seas should fall back fairly quickly once winds drop off. Will be ~4ft by mid afternoon tomorrow, then ~3ft by Monday morning. Through the rest of the week, seas will be 2-3ft.

Regarding rip currents for Sunday...have maintained a moderate rip risk across northern beaches, but have introduced a high risk for southern beaches with this evening update. This is due to nearshore waves remaining 3-5 ft through at least the first part of the day and a favorable 70-90 degree swell direction.
The threat may drop off some later in the afternoon and evening as winds lighten and seas gradually drop off.

CLIMATE
Record Low Temps:

9/9 RIC 47/1986 ORF 53/1951 SBY 47/1986 ECG 52/1951

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>634-638.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ635>637.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650- 652-654-656-658.