Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Irvington, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 345 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Flood Watch remains in effect through 2 AM Tuesday for NE NC, but may be cancelled early.

- Warmer Tuesday with highs into the mid to upper 80s for most of the area. A few strong storms possible across the NW late.

The latest WX analysis indicates weak sfc low pressure offshore of the VA Capes, with high pressure off the New England coast.
Aloft, the flow is from the WNW with the local area on the northern periphery of an upper ridge centered from the Bahamas to the eastern Gulf. A sfc front is nearly stationary along or just S of the VA-NC border this aftn, with a rather cool airmass for the time of year in place N of the boundary. Temperatures are only in the 70s except in far southern VA and NE NC away from the coast where readings are in the lower 80s. In fact, a few place over the far N have struggled to get to 70F, with low clouds and drizzle for much of the day.

For this evening, will maintain the Flood Watch for our NE NC counties for now, but the general trend has been for the heavy rain to move ESE from areas upstream, staying south of the local area (along and S of the Albemarle Sound). Therefore, will allow the evening shift to assess the trends, and the potential for an early cancellation. SPC mesoanalysis shows 1000+ J/Kg of ML CAPE S of the VA-NC border, with PWAT values at or above 2.00" but lapse rates are quite weak. Additional rainfall totals will be less than 1" for most of NE NC, though due to the ground saturation from yesterday and last night's showers, this area will be prone to isolated instances flash flooding. A few showers will be possible overnight, even to the north, but rainfall amounts will generally be light. Some patchy fog/low stratus is likely early Tuesday morning, but do not expect widespread dense fog. Lows will range from the mid 60s N to the lower 70s S.

Tuesday will tend to begin with low clouds, and possibly patchy drizzle, but upper level heights are forecast to rise, as the next trough approaches from the OH/TN Valley, and the upper ridge across Florida expands N. This should lead to increasing amounts of sunshine by late morning/early aftn, allowing highs to rise into the mid to upper 80s by later aftn (upper 70s to lower 80s eastern shore). By late aftn, another shortwave, this one a bit stronger, is expected to approach from the west, and with decent instability parameters developing (at least well inland), some showers/storms will be possible, mainly after 3 PM. Shear values are not impressive (20-30 kt at best), but mid level lapse rates are a bit better than the past several days and may compensate for the lack of shear. The primary threat from any severe storm is damaging winds, with the threat mostly limited to the nrn piedmont. SPC maintains a Marginal Risk for severe weather in this area.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 355 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and humid Wed and Thursday, with heat headlines possible in the SE.

- Severe Tstms possible late Thursday.

Aside from a few showers/storms late in the day Wed, conditions should be mainly dry. With upper level ridging expands north towards the region, summerlike heat is expected with highs rising into the low-mid 90s for most of the area.Given the pattern, and with the recent wet spell, have kept high temperatures both Wed and Thursday on the cooler edge of guidance, but with dew pts at or slightly higher than MOS numbers. Expect heat indices to peak around 105F in the SE (where Heat headlines may be needed), to the upper 90s to ~103F elsewhere. Given the high heat and humidity, ample instability is expected along and ahead of a cold front. In addition, model mid level lapse rates are currently showing values >6C/Km, along with bulk shear values of 30-40kt. SPC has most of the region in a Day 4 15% Risk (slight), and this would be mainly for wind, though large hail will be possible as well.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 400 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

Scattered showers/strong storms possible Thu evening, followed by dry weather for Fri, probably lasting through the weekend.
While the NBM does not have any rain chances, there could be a few storms Sat night/early Sunday across mainly NE sections of the FA as both the GFS/ECMWF and ensembles are showing a shortwave diving SSE from the Great Lakes (will continue to monitor this over the next few days). Beyond that, there is good model consensus that an upper level trough locks in place over the NW CONUS, with a strong upper ridge across the central and eastern CONUS. Some of the models depict 500 mb heights rising to nearly 600 dm. The period next week looks quite hot for a prolonged period given this setup. Humidity level might be slightly lower given this ridge being more of continental origin, though with the recent wet spell, this is uncertain.



AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 200 PM EDT Monday...

Widespread IFR/MVFR restrictions persist this aftn, except across NE NC where it is mainly VFR. Winds remain E-NE at 5-10kt, except over NC where they are out of the S-SE.

Outlook: CIGs fall back into IFR/LIFR overnight into early Tuesday, with patchy fog/low stratus and possibly drizzle.
IMproving conditions late Tue morning, and then mainly VFR by aftn outside of widely scattered SHRA and TSRA, that may continue into the evening. A cold front will bring another round of scattered showers/tstms later Thu/Thu night. Dry/VFR Fri-Sat.

MARINE
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Relatively benign across the marine area through midweek outside of convection.

A quasi-stationary front was located along the southern border of the forecast area as of afternoon analysis. It will remain near southern reaches of the area through tomorrow before lifting N as a warm front once again. Latest obs indicate E/NE flow at 5-10kt. Buoy obs show seas of 2-4ft with highest seas off the Eastern Shore. Waves in the bay and river are 1-2ft.
Onshore flow at 5-10kt continues tonight and through tomorrow, becoming SE tomorrow afternoon. Scattered convection tomorrow afternoon/evening may lead to isolated instances of elevated winds/waves. Winds become S, then SW Tues night into Wednesday.
Seas will be 2-3ft and waves generally 1ft or less (higher in mouth of bay). Expecting breezier conditions Wed into Thurs ahead of a cold front. SW winds of ~15kt expected Wed, then increasing slightly heading into Thurs as the front gets closer.
SCAs may be needed late Wed night through Thurs evening- best chance is for the lower bay and James River.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Onshore flow over the last couple of days has led to slightly elevated tidal anomalies, particularly in the upper bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock/Potomac. While the upcoming high tide should be lower than the this morning's tide, there could still be some lingering nuisance flooding. A Coastal Flood Statement was issued for the upper Rappahannock River (Tappahannock gage) where level may near the minor flood threshold this evening.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.