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ANZ635 Rappahannock River From Urbanna To Windmill Point- 1259 Am Edt Sat Sep 23 2023
.tropical storm warning in effect...
Overnight..Tropical storm conditions possible. NE winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late this evening and early morning.
Sat..Tropical storm conditions possible. E winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain until late afternoon. A chance of tstms in the late morning and afternoon. Rain likely late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm until late afternoon.
Sat night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft, diminishing to 1 to 2 ft after midnight. Rain likely until early morning. A chance of rain late.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain early in the morning.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves less than 1 foot and light chop.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves less than 1 foot and light chop.
Mon night..N winds 10 kt. Waves less than 1 foot and light chop.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 1259 Am Edt Sat Sep 23 2023
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers..
troical storm ophelia is expected to make landfall in north carolina early Saturday morning. This system will bring substantial marine impacts, including tropical storm- force winds and high seas, to all local waters.

FXUS61 KAKQ 230151 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 951 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

SYNOPSIS
Tropical Storm Ophelia continues to track north towards and into the area through Saturday night, bringing widespread heavy rain and strong gusty winds to the region. Unsettled weather continues in the wake of Ophelia through the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 950 PM EDT Friday...

Late this evening, Tropical Storm Ophelia was located just off the SE NC coast. Ophelia will continue to move N overnight through Sun, tracking over NE NC and E VA. Meanwhile, high pressure off the New England coast will gradually lift NE through Sat, with the pressure gradient winds strongest tonight before the winds from Tropical Storm Ophelia take over on Sat.
Expect winds increase to 20-30 mph with gusts to around 40 MPH across the SE coast. Rain has spread into the entire CWA by late this evening, and will continue to move NW through the night with a widespread, moderate to heavy rain expected across the entire FA tonight through Sat. 12z CAMs continue to come in further W than the NHC track which leads to discrepancies in temps and QPF into Sun. For now, went with WPC QPF which is a blend of hires and global models and results in 2-4" with locally higher amounts for the far W and E portions of the FA and 4- 6" with locally higher amounts across central VA and interior NE NC. This is shift W in QPF is due to the comma head moisture axis on the NW side of the center of Ophelia, enhanced by an occluded front. Unfortunately, this shift does place the heaviest precipitation axis across the I-95 corridor including Richmond and the Tri-Cities (which are already more prone to flooding). As such, WPC has introduced a day 2 Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall for this area. A Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall remains in effect elsewhere Sat with a Slight Risk for E and SE VA and NE NC this afternoon through tonight and a Marginal Risk further NW. The Flood Watch has therefore been expanded W and N and now includes the entire FA.

Rain tapers off first across the E and then from S to N Sat night into Sun morning. Besides the flooding and wind threats, there will also be a tornado threat from tonight through Sat aftn. SPC has placed SE VA and NE NC in a slight risk for tornadoes tonight (with a marginal risk W up to I-95) and most of the FA (apart from the far W Piedmont) in a marginal risk for tornadoes Sat.
This is due to the subtropical characteristics that Ophelia is expected to take on tonight into Sat. As it undergoes extratropical transition, an occluded front develops on the N side of the low and moves into NE NC late tonight and SE VA by Sat morning, gradually lifting N through the day Sat. The hires CAMs show a well defined triple point developing as this occurs with locally higher dewpoints in the lower 70s pooling along and just N of the occluded front. Additionally, partial clearing is possible. Any discrete or semi-discrete storm that can develop in the vicinity of the triple point or the occluded front will have the best chance of producing a tornado as CAPE will be locally higher than the surrounding environment. Low level shear will be sufficient for rotating storms with 0-1 SRH ~200 m2/s2 and sfc winds E/ESE with SE winds aloft. The greatest tornado threat appears to be late tonight into early Sat morning across NE NC and SE VA as CAPE increases to ~1000 J/kg with a more conditional threat Sat afternoon depending on any clearing that may develop across E portions of the FA.

High temps in the lower to mid 60s W and upper 70s E Sat with lows tonight in the upper 50s W to upper 60s E, and Sat night in the upper 50s W and mid 60s E.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 435 PM EDT Friday...

The remnants of Tropical Storm Ophelia weaken Sun as it lifts N out of the FA. However, global models now suggest that the remnant low lingers near the Eastern Shore into Mon as high pressure slowly builds back S from Canada into New England. As such, it will remain unsettled with plentiful clouds across the N half of the FA and partial clearing across the S half. Cannot rule out isolated light showers across far N portions of the FA Sun or Mon (with the highest chance over the Eastern Shore). Highs in the upper 60s NW to lower 80s SE Sun and lower 70s NW to lower 80s SE Mon. Lows in the mid 50s W to mid 60s E Sun night.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 350 PM EDT Friday...

The extended period is trending unsettled, though there remains a large degree of variability among the global models. Aloft, troughing remains over the E w/ potentially a closed upper low forming over the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas by the end of the week.
The 500 mb map looks very characteristic of an omega block during this time. The surface pattern will be dominated by strong (1035+ mb) and persistent high pressure to our N, which will ridge southward into the area into midweek. This will favor a CAD situation for our inland areas and potential low pressure formation off the coast. In fact, the GFS indicates the remnant vorticity of TS Ophelia may have some association w/ this midweek system. The ECMWF is less extreme and doesn't develop a closed low, but still maintains unsettled/wet conditions. Either way, tightened pressure gradient continues onshore flow and moist low-level flow off of the water. PoPs have been raised through most of next week to 30-40% (not any higher at this time due to uncertainty) with temps trending lower inland where the CAD will be most pronounced. 60s for highs will be common across the W and NW, with 70s probable across the SE. These temps could be lower along the coast if widespread precip develops in the wake of onshore flow. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s (lowest W away from the water).

AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 820 PM EDT Friday...

Tropical Storm Ophelia continues to lift N and eventually across the region through Sun, bringing a prolonged period of possible heavy rain, reduced CIGs and VSBYs. Rain was spreading NNW into and across the area this evening, with some bands of moderate to heavy rain. Periods of rain, some moderate to heavy will continue over the region tonight into Sat night. CIGs will be lower MVFR or IFR through this period. NE winds 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt inland and 25-35 kt near the coast will increase tonight into Sat, as Ophelia approaches the area. Winds increase to 20-25 kt with gusts ~35 kt inland and 40-45 kt near the coast. Winds become N at RIC tonight into Sat morning, but remain NE for the rest of the terminals. Expect a strong NE or E wind Sat morning, to become SE or S at PHF/ORF/ECG Sat aftn into Sat night, while gradually diminishing.

MARINE
As of 400 PM EDT Friday...

Tropical Storm Ophelia is rapidly developing over the Gulf Stream well ESE of Cape Fear, NC. Meanwhile, 1030mb high pressure is anchored from northern New England to Atlantic Canada. A NE wind has increased to 20-30kt with gusts to ~35kt over the open water of the coastal Atlantic and Chesapeake Bay due to the pressure gradient between the high to the N and the TS to the S. Seas range from 8ft N to nearly 12ft S, with 5-7ft waves in the mouth of the Bay and 3-4ft elsewhere. The wind will further increase late this aftn to 30-35 kt with gusts 40-45 kt. The wind will remain NE and increase overnight tonight to 35-45 kt with gusts to 50-55 kt. Models are in good agreement that the wind will subside slightly late tonight in early early Saturday morning, to ENE ~30 kt with gusts ~40 kt, ahead of the main circulation. Late Friday night into early Saturday morning (and into Saturday) will be the time where the threat of waterspouts become more likely (especially across the southern Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Ocean coastal waters south of Parramore Island, VA).
The center of TS Ophelia is forecasted to move north across the western portion of the Albemarle Sound on Saturday afternoon. This will be the time when the wind will become SSE and increase across northern NC and southern VA waters to 30-35 kt with gusts 45-50 kt.
The tropical storm will quickly weaken as the center move into southeast VA and track north inland of the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay. A southerly wind increases farther north as the center of the storm moves north with SSE winds at 30-35 kt with gusts 40-45 kt. The wind then quickly decreases later Saturday aftn into Saturday night as the storm weakens over the area. The storm moves NE of the area by Sunday. The will likely remain very elevated as they turn SW and W on the backside, before gradually subsiding by Sunday evening and Monday.

Seas continue to increase to 10-15 ft Friday into Saturday, with the highest values expected Saturday morning. Seas may occasionally reach 15-20 ft, especially out 20 nm. Waves in the Bay will be 6-9 ft, but even higher (9-11 ft) at the Mouth of the Bay.

Strong high pressure builds N of the region Tuesday through mid to late next week, with the potential for at least an inverted trough developing off the Carolina coast. Therefore, a NE wind is expected to return with the current forecast depicting 15-25kt with seas of 5- 8ft.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 400 PM EDT Friday...

The Storm Surge Watches for the southern shore of the Potomac and far western side of the Albemarle Sound have been upgraded to warnings. Storm Surge Warnings remain in effect for the western side of the Chesapeake Bay (including tidal rivers) and Atlantic coast in/south of Chincoteague. In addition, Coastal Flood Warnings have been issued for the Rappahannock/York/James in areas west of the Storm Surge Warning (to Tappahannock/West Point/Hopewell) for moderate to perhaps locally major flooding, which corresponds to 1 to locally 3 feet of inundation AGL in vulnerable areas. Lastly, the CFAs have been upgraded to Coastal Flood Warnings for the MD Eastern Shore (both the bay and ocean side) for moderate to perhaps locally major flooding.

Still expecting water levels to rapidly increase in the middle/lower bay and Atlantic coast of SE VA/NE NC this evening-tonight with very strong NE winds well ahead of Ophelia. This will allow for moderate to major flooding in the lower bay, tidal rivers, and Atlantic coast of SE VA/NE NC tonight (which is equivalent to 2-4 feet of inundation above normally dry ground in flooding prone areas). In addition, the Albemarle Sound and Currituck Sound will likely have a push of water as the low moves northward on Saturday when winds turn to the S-SE, bringing the potential for 2-4 ft of inundation AGL in vulnerable areas from Edenton to Elizabeth City and points east.
Even the western part of the Albemarle sound may see a push of water due to the N-NE winds. This will be a prolonged event for all areas, with the low tide Saturday morning struggling to drop below flood stage. Moderate to major tidal flooding will likely continue through the high tide cycle Sat aftn/evening. Water levels in the upper bay (and Atlantic coast of MD) will likely peak during the aftn/evening high tide cycle on Sat. There should be an appreciable drop in water levels by Sat night-Sun AM in the lower bay and SE VA/NE NC coast as winds subside, but levels will be very slow to drop in the upper bay (w/ moderate flooding expected in spots through Sunday).

In general, have not made much in the way of changes to the forecast even though the 12z/22 ETSS guidance is about 0.2-0.5 feet lower than the overnight guidance. This is because we are still expecting very strong NE winds shifting to the S-SE (and water levels have overperformed with respect to ETSS forecasts when we have had very strong NE winds in past events).

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Tropical Storm Warning for MDZ021>025.
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for MDZ021>025.
Coastal Flood Warning from noon Saturday to 4 PM EDT Sunday for MDZ021>023.
Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT Sunday for MDZ024-025.
NC...Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for NCZ012.
Flood Watch through late Saturday night for NCZ013>017-030>032- 102.
VA...Tropical Storm Warning for VAZ075>078-084>086-089-090-092-093- 095>100-523>525.
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for VAZ075>078-085-099.
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for VAZ048-060>062-064>069- 079>083-087-088-509>522.
Flood Watch through late Saturday night for VAZ084-086-089-090- 092-093-095>098-100-523>525.
Coastal Flood Warning until midnight EDT Saturday night for VAZ076-081>083-518-521-522.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

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Wakema
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Sat -- 01:39 AM EDT     1.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:00 AM EDT     3.18 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:23 PM EDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:35 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:37 PM EDT     4.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Wakema, Mattaponi River, Virginia, Tide feet

Sweet Hall Landing
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Sat -- 01:53 AM EDT     0.88 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:19 AM EDT     2.49 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:37 PM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:35 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:56 PM EDT     3.20 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Sweet Hall Landing, Pamunkey River, Virginia, Tide feet

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