Saturday, November28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
King and Queen Court House, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 4:53PM Saturday November 28, 2020 11:08 PM EST (04:08 UTC) Moonrise 4:01PMMoonset 5:13AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ635 Rappahannock River From Urbanna To Windmill Point- 1015 Pm Est Sat Nov 28 2020
Tonight..N winds 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..NE winds 5 kt, becoming se in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 1 foot. Showers after midnight.
Mon..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 foot late. Showers, mainly in the morning.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 1015 Pm Est Sat Nov 28 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure remains in place overnight and gradually slides offshore on Sunday. A strong storm system is expected to affect the region late Sunday night through Monday. High pressure builds back in from the southwest Tuesday and Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near King and Queen Court House, VA
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location: 37.65, -76.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 290250 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 950 PM EST Sat Nov 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build in from the west this evening, and becomes centered over the region overnight through Sunday morning. A strong storm system is expected to affect the region late Sunday night into Monday. High pressure builds back in from the southwest Tuesday and Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 945 PM EST Saturday .

Latest analysis reveals departing sfc cool front now well offshore. To the west, ~1023mb sfc high pressure over the OH/TN River valleys continues to slowly drift E toward the local area, and will settle overhead tonight.

Clear sky and light winds are bringing nearly ideal radiating conditions for much of the area. Still plenty of llvl moisture across the SE, and thus some patchy fog likely from US-58 south into North Carolina into Sunday morning. Otherwise, clear to mostly clear and cooler with lows in the 30s (lower 40s SE coast).

Clear and cold to start the day Sunday, with sfc high pressure slowly drifting offshore through the day. Not quite as mild tomorrow, but seasonable with increasing aftn and early evening clouds, but remaining dry. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s inland, low to mid 60s SE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. As of 245 PM EST Saturday .

Attention turns to the developing system over the Mississippi River Valley later tomorrow and tomorrow night. The broad upper trough should close off tomorrow night, as the northern stream upper trough interacts with strong southern stream vort max, which swings northeast from the Mid-south into the interior northeast after 00z/7pm Sun night into Mon morning. This should develop a sfc low over the deep south tomorrow night. this feature then slides up to the western Carolinas and W VA/WV after midnight tomorrow night into Monday morning, continuing N-NE along the spine of the Appalachians into midday Mon, before reaching western PA and NY Mon aftn & evening.

Have generally followed an 12z/28 NAM/ECMWF blend for this package, with rain chances ramping up to categorical to high-end chance late Sunday night into Monday. The first slug of precipitation /overrunning moisture/ lifts across the area tomorrow night, preceding the sfc warm front, which lifts N across the area Monday morning through midday. Additional showers/isolated tstms generally shift E of I-95 mid-late morning Mon through the aftn, as a dry slot pushes in from the SSW. Shear is impressive, with models showing a strong LLJ (50-60 kts) nosing into the area Mon morning through mid aftn, preceding the trailing sfc cold front.

As is often the case, instability will be limited, and the greatest threat for any strong/severe tstms along or just ahead of the cold front in the warm sector. Area of greatest concern is along the SE coast, where somewhat warmer temps and better mixing is expected due to slightly more favorable instability parameters. Will carry slight chance tstms at some point Mon for all zones except the far NW CWA. Low-topped showers and embedded t-storms, with a few strong to locally severe wind gusts possible in some of the more robust convective cells. Again, area of greatest concern is along the SE coast and across the eastern shore, but gusty winds with the frontal passage are expected for most of the area. Apart from any convective gusts, becoming breezy w/ gusts to 20-30 MPH inland, 30-40 MPH along the coast Mon aftn and evening as sky clears post-frontal. Will continue to highlight these threats in the HWO.

As far as QPF goes, storm total QPF amounts look to avg 1.00 to 2.00" (most of it prior to Mon aftn). Locally higher amounts will be possible given convective elements that become possible during the day Mon. Clearing conditions Mon aftn along/W of I-95 and a few hrs later near the coast, as the cold front pushes to the coast and then farther offshore. Will likely see clouds increase once again Mon night/early Tuesday as the parent upper trough crosses the area. A few showers are also possible, and have added a slight chance PoP Tuesday morning.

High temps on Monday will range from the lower to mid 60s extrm W/NW counties, to the upper 60s to lower 70s ESE. Turning sharply colder Mon night with temps falling to the mid 30s W to lower 40s E.

Turning drier and markedly cooler on Tuesday, as cool (albeit quickly modifying) Canadian airmass pushes across the region. Despite late morning and aftn sunshine, highs Tuesday only in the low to mid 40s inland to low 50s SE coast. Clear and cold Tuesday night with early morning lows Wed morning in the 20s to near 30.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 245 PM EST Saturday .

Dry wx and slightly below average temperatures are expected during the middle of next week as low pressure continues to slowly move away from the area while high pressure slowly builds in from the SW. Highs on Wed will be around 50F with morning lows in the upper 20s- low 30s. Cold again Wednesday night with lows in the mid 20s-low 30s. The surface high is progged to become centered over the area on Thursday before moving offshore by the end of the week. Meanwhile, an upper low is progged to dive southward over the central CONUS during the middle of next week while a ridge amplifies over the wrn third of the US. That upper low is progged to become cut off over the central Plains on Thursday. That upper low will eventually move east toward the Mid-Atlantic by next weekend. As it approaches the Atlantic coast, it may phase with a northern stream shortwave dropping SE from the nrn Great Lakes. If the upper low does phase with the northern stream shortwave (as many model solutions indicate), it would result in another strong/deepening sfc low tracking from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast during the Sat/Sat night timeframe. While we are still several days out, it looks like any threat for wintry pcpn will remain to our north and west. For now, have slight chc PoPs late Fri increasing to chc on Saturday before tapering to slight chc Sat night. Additionally, another period of at least breezy conditions is possible as the low exits to our north during the latter part of next weekend.

Slightly warmer temperatures are expected by the end of next week. Forecast highs on Thursday/Friday/Saturday are generally in the mid 50s-around 60F (coolest NW/warmest SE). Forecast lows Thursday night are mainly in the 30s. Slightly milder Fri night with increasing clouds/lows in the upper 30s-mid 40s.

AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 640 PM EST Saturday .

High pressure builds in from the west tonight leading to light and variable winds. VFR flying weather is expected to prevail tonight with some chance for MVFR CIGs/VSBY at ECG where low level moisture will linger. High pressure moves offshore late tomorrow, allowing winds to become SE ahead of the next system approaching from the SW.

OUTLOOK . A potent storm system over the Gulf coast will approach the region, resulting in Sub-VFR conditions over the region from late Sun night through Mon. The potential for heavy rain and windy conditions exists across the region as the strong sfc front crosses the area Monday aftn. Increasing/lowering clouds Sun aftn and night, with deteriorating conditions early Monday. Flight restrictions are likely Mon morning into Mon aftn. Clearing out back to VFR as precipitation ends late Mon aftn into Mon night, though remaining breezy to windy through Mon evening. Another brief period of sub-VFR conditions are possible early Tuesday as the upper low slides across the region. Clearing out again and remaining breezy on Tuesday, with VFR conds likely Tue-Thu.

MARINE. As of 420 PM EST Saturday .

Gale Watches will go in effect at 4 AM Monday for the southern coastal waters and at 6 AM Monday for the southern Ches Bay and northern coastal waters through Monday afternoon for SE winds (becoming SSE/S by late morning/early afternoon) 20 to 30 kt with gusts 35 to 40 kt. Highest and most prolonged winds are expected to be over the northern coastal waters.

High pressure centered to the west of the local waters will gradually move east through tomorrow before sliding offshore tomorrow evening. Northerly winds 10 to 15 kt overnight become light and variable tomorrow morning before becoming SSE 5 to 10 kt by late tomorrow afternoon. This will be accompanied by 1 to 2 ft waves and 2 to 3 ft seas. An area of low pressure strengthens over the Deep South tomorrow and will continue to deepen as it rapidly moves north along the Appalachian Mountains tomorrow evening through Monday. Six hour pressure falls of 8 to 10 mb over the southern coastal waters, and 10 to 12 mb over the northern waters and Ches Bay are expected in the 09z-15z and 12z-18z timeframe late tomorrow night into midday Monday. This will combine with a 55-65kt SSE LLJ, bringing the potential for a period of gale conditions from an initially SE wind late tomorrow night through Monday morning, becoming SSE/S by late morning/early afternoon as the low moves further north. Winds of 20 to 30 kt with gusts 35 to 40 kt over the southern waters, 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt over the lower bay, and 25 to 35 kt with gusts to 40 kt over the northern coastal waters are expected during this timeframe. Seas will also build to 5 to 8 ft in the southern coastal waters, 8 to 12 ft in the northern coastal waters, and waves of 3 to 5 ft in the Ches Bay (possibly as high as 6 ft at the mouth of the bay) Monday.

Winds become SW 15-20kt by Monday evening (around 15 kt in the bay) behind the primary cold front, shifting to W overnight behind the secondary cold front. There will likely be a period of sub-SCA winds Monday evening through Monday night before winds shift to SW and increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt Tuesday. Winds gradually become W and drop below SCA criteria by midday Wednesday. Seas/waves will remain elevated through Tuesday before subsiding Wednesday. SCAs for elevated seas >5 ft will likely be need through Tuesday night.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 320 PM EST Saturday .

A strong area of low pressure is progged to track along the spine of the Appalachians on Monday with a cold front crossing the area Monday evening into the first part of Monday night. Strong SE-S winds are expected on Monday. This will cause tidal anomalies to increase, especially across the mid/upper Ches Bay (and perhaps the Atlantic coast of VA). While astronomical tides are not that high, nuisance to perhaps minor tidal flooding is possible across these areas on Monday. Could see some lingering nuisance tidal flooding across the bayside of the MD Ern Shore on Tuesday as winds turn to the SW following the cold FROPA.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Gale Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for ANZ632-634. Gale Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for ANZ650-652-654. Gale Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for ANZ656-658.

SYNOPSIS . MAM NEAR TERM . MAM/RHR SHORT TERM . MAM/TMG LONG TERM . ERI AVIATION . MAM/RHR MARINE . ERI/RMM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 19 mi99 min W 1.9 44°F 1021 hPa43°F
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 33 mi51 min W 2.9 G 2.9 48°F 55°F1021 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 35 mi33 min N 5.8 G 5.8 48°F 56°F1023.4 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 37 mi51 min Calm G 1.9 50°F 57°F1020.4 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 39 mi51 min Calm G 0
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 40 mi57 min Calm G 1 54°F
44072 46 mi29 min WNW 1.9 G 1.9 54°F
NCDV2 47 mi57 min WSW 1 G 1.9 46°F 55°F1020.3 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 48 mi51 min WSW 1 G 1.9 1021.2 hPa

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA15 mi74 minN 010.00 miFair38°F38°F100%1021.3 hPa
Richmond, Richmond International Airport, VA24 mi75 minENE 310.00 miFair45°F39°F83%1021.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFYJ

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4CalmCalmN3NE7NE7--E5NE4NE5NE6NE5E4CalmE3E4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for Wakema, Mattaponi River, Virginia
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Wakema
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:06 AM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:12 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:08 AM EST     3.84 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:00 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:54 PM EST     0.32 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:20 PM EST     3.22 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.92.41.710.40.20.411.92.93.53.83.73.22.51.710.50.30.61.32.12.83.2

Tide / Current Tables for Sweet Hall Landing, Pamunkey River, Virginia
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Sweet Hall Landing
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:12 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:20 AM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:27 AM EST     3.01 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:01 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:50 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:08 PM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:39 PM EST     2.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.421.50.90.40.20.30.71.322.6332.72.21.50.90.50.30.40.81.52.12.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.