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PZZ531 San Francisco Bay South Of The Bay Bridge- 147 Am Pst Tue Nov 28 2023
Today..E winds around 5 knots...becoming nw this afternoon.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 knots. Rain likely.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of rain.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 knots.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. A chance of rain.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of rain.

PZZ500 147 Am Pst Tue Nov 28 2023
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries...
southerly winds will steadily increase today as a low pressure system approaches the the local waters. Fresh to moderate breezes are anticipated, with briefly strong breezes possible in the northern offshore waters. Scattered showers will develop late tonight and persist through the first half of Wednesday. An isolated Thunderstorm or two is also possible. Winds will gradually diminish and shift to northerly late Wednesday into Thursday before strong breezes develop by Thursday night. A larger moderate period northwest swell should arrive by late week. Weather conditions will remain unsettled into this weekend with plenty of cloud cover and periodic shower chances.

FXUS66 KMTR 280949 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 149 AM PST Tue Nov 28 2023

New MARINE

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 111 AM PST Tue Nov 28 2023

A low pressure system offshore will bring rain chances to the region late tonight into Wednesday. An unsettled pattern will continue into the weekend with periodic shower chances persisting.
Rain amounts overall will be light with temperatures on the cool side.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 111 AM PST Tue Nov 28 2023

Low pressure aloft was evident via moisture channel imagery this morning around 500 nm west of the Redwood Coast. A consensus of forecast models suggest this wave will devolve to an open-wave trough while dropping southeast through the Bay Area and Central Coast tonight into Wednesday morning. The associated surface low should remain offshore with the occluded front making its nearest approach to the CA coast Wednesday morning. Given the offshore trajectory of the low-level features the greatest forcing for ascent should remain offshore; however still expect scattered showers to spread inland from west to east from around midnight on Wednesday through the morning hours. Shower chances should taper off from northwest to southeast, with chances generally ending in the Bay Area during the late morning hours but perhaps lingering for the Central Coast into the early afternoon. Amounts will be greatest in the coastal ranges where 0.5-0.75" is possible, but elsewhere look for amounts of generally 0.25" or less. So this should be a beneficial rainfall with no real hydrologic concerns expected. Some modest instability will be present over the Pacific waters as well so can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm or two (~15% potential)
there. However odds of seeing any lightning for land areas is much lower (~5%). High temperatures will undergo a cooling trend given more cloud cover with afternoon temperatures mostly in the lower to mid 60s for the lower elevations. Overnight readings will remain a bit milder with lows mostly in the 40s.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 111 AM PST Tue Nov 28 2023

The region will remain in an unsettled northwest flow pattern aloft as a series of weak perturbations traverse the mean flow. In general the best moisture and forcing for ascent will remain across far NorCal and the Pacific Northwest, however we'll remain just close enough to occasionally be brushed with some light showers. Rain amounts don't appear overly impressive (generally 0.10" or less)
although it's possible the Sonoma Coastal Ranges could receive up to 0.25" through early next week. Expect a gradual warming trend in temperatures through early next week as the greatest rain chances shift north of our area.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 943 PM PST Mon Nov 27 2023

VFR conditions expected to continue through the overnight hours as weak offshore flow continues, keeping the region dry. At the surface, light winds will prevail. A weak surface low pressure is still expected to approach the SF Bay Area Tuesday night into Wednesday. As the system approaches tomorrow afternoon, winds will shift southerly but expected to remain generally under 10 knots across the region. Guidance is hinting that winds will shift SW briefly during the afternoon Tuesday before shifting more SE as the system gets closer. VCSH and -RA chances begin after 04-06z tomorrow night. Moderate to high confidence that VFR persists through the TAF period, but heavier rain just beyond the TAF period (later Wed morning) may result in lowered visbys/cigs.

Vicinity of SFO...Light winds and FEW-SCT high clouds prevail.
Benign conditions expected across Bay Area terminals through the overnight hours. Light to breezy southerly winds expected tomorrow afternoon. KOAK may briefly turn onshore (NW) during the afternoon. Increasing chance for rain late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Highest confidence that rain will start after 10 PM Tuesday persisting overnight into Wed morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...SE winds continue overnight, increasing across the Salinas Valley through the night. Winds expected to shift westerly tomorrow afternoon. Rain chances are just beyond the TAF period, so stay tuned for the 12z TAF package.

MARINE
Issued at 147 AM PST Tue Nov 28 2023

Southerly winds will steadily increase today as a low pressure system approaches the the local waters. Fresh to moderate breezes are anticipated, with briefly strong breezes possible in the northern offshore waters. Scattered showers will develop late tonight and persist through the first half of Wednesday. An isolated thunderstorm or two is also possible. Winds will gradually diminish and shift to northerly late Wednesday into Thursday before strong breezes develop by Thursday night. A larger moderate period northwest swell should arrive by late week.
Weather conditions will remain unsettled into this weekend with plenty of cloud cover and periodic shower chances.

BEACHES
Issued at 119 AM PST Tue Nov 28 2023

A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from late this morning into early this afternoon for coastal areas around San Francisco Bay.
Tide levels have been running around one to two thirds above predictions, with minor flooding observed during high tide yesterday. Minor flooding of vulnerable, low-lying, areas along the shoreline is again anticipated around today's high tide cycle during the late morning hours with impacts gradually waning through early afternoon.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 2 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ006-506-508.

Frost Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for CAZ506-510.

Freeze Warning until 9 AM PST this morning for CAZ516.

PZ...None.

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Alameda Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:45 AM PST     5.09 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:01 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:31 AM PST     0.80 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:38 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 12:04 PM PST     6.79 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:51 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:49 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:34 PM PST     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Alameda Creek, San Francisco Bay, California, Tide feet

Oakland Airport SW
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:17 AM PST     -0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:18 AM PST     -0.41 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:12 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:02 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:39 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:14 AM PST     0.50 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:59 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:19 PM PST     -1.02 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:51 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:49 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:11 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:37 PM PST     0.78 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Oakland Airport SW, South San Francisco Bay, California Current, knots

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