Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cherryland, CA

SHORT TERM
Issued at 1228 PM PDT Tue Oct 14 2025 (This evening through Wednesday)

The 12Z sounding found very cold air aloft. The 850 temp was 2.35C and 500 temp -25.35C. Both near the minimum daily values. Most notable was the 500 mb height of 5460m. That shattered the daily record. For context the average for this date is 5787, 10th percentile: 5667, old record: 5572. In fact, 5460 is tied for the second lowest 500 mb height ever measured in the month of October, beaten only by 5457m measured on 10/28/56. While this cold air is keeping lapse rates steep, the moisture has plummeted and the surface front has passed into southern California keeping the impacts much lower today. That being said, there are still scattered showers expected through the evening. Some of these could be strong with possible lightning, hail and brief downpours. By Wednesday the atmosphere will restabilize and the chance for rain will drop to near zero. The wet soil, combined with clearing skies tonight and cool temperatures will bring a chance for fog Wednesday morning if a shallow inversion forms.

LONG TERM
Issued at 1228 PM PDT Tue Oct 14 2025 (Wednesday night through next Monday)

Over the next several days the bowling ball mid level low will fill and move NE, returning back to the jet stream over the central US. While this happens, ridging from the subtropical high will nudge in over California. This will kick off a warming trend starting Wednesday, with temperatures returning to comfortable seasonal average by Friday. Saturday will be a few degrees warmer than normal before the pattern breaks down. A new, more typical trough is set to approach the coast by Sunday, bringing a slight cool down into early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis suggest there is a good amount of uncertainty regarding how deep this trough gets, complicated in part by a left-over cutoff low off the coast of Mexico. If these 2 features combine there is a chance for rain, otherwise the trough likely won't be deep enough to bring more than clouds and cooler weather.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1056 AM PDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Deep upper low pressure system currently located off the Central Coast will continue to meander towards the southeast. Mixed skies thru today with SCT Cu and stratus. Light rainfall and shower activity anticipated for North Bay terminals through the early afternoon, migrating to the East Bay region by the early evening.
Patchy MVFR cigs anticipated tonight as temps cool and showers end. High confidence in clearing skies from west to east by the sunrise hour Wednesday.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR thru most of the period with the exception of the overnight hours where cigs may lower to MVFR. Any cigs that do develop will likely scatter out by sunrise Wednesday. Most shower activity expected to remain east of the terminal and approach. However, keeping VCSH in forecast with the best chance 00-03Z. VFR thru Wednesday with isolated SCT/BKN Cu.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Mostly clear today with SCT Cu being the biggest factor. Low chance of isolated showers this afternoon.
Moderate confidence in VFR thru the rest of the period. Once again, biggest impact Wednesday will be SCT/BKN Cu moving off high terrain.

MARINE
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1056 AM PDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Surface low currently centered near Point Sur will promote isolated showers across the waters today. Cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm south of Pigeon Point through this afternoon. Hazardous seas will persist with seas over 10 feet over the outer waters. Overall conditions will gradually improve late Tuesday into Wednesday.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.