Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Brisbane, CA

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 121 PM PDT Mon May 12 2025

Radar and satellite imagery showed the main rain band practically fall apart as it went through the Central Coast, and at the moment, isolated showers continue across the Bay Area. Most of the region saw around a tenth of an inch, with as much as a quarter to a half an inch in the Bay Area and Santa Cruz mountains, while the interior Central Coast did not see any rain. Isolated showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder in the North Bay will continue through the early evening with any additional accumulation up to a few hundredths of an inch. Any rain chances for tomorrow will mainly be limited to coastal and orographically driven drizzle, with the main concentrations of accumulating precipitation off to our east in the Sierra Nevada range.

Temperatures across the region remain cool with today's highs reaching the lower to middle 60s in the inland valleys, into the upper 60s to the lower 70s in the warmest spots, and around the middle to upper 50s in the coastal locations. Highs in the inland valleys reach the upper 60s to lower 70s on Tuesday, but this is still around 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal averages, while lows on Tuesday morning hover in the middle 40s to lower 50s in the lower elevations, down to the upper 30s to the lower 40s in the higher elevations.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 121 PM PDT Mon May 12 2025

As upper level ridging builds through the middle and latter part of the week, inland temperatures will begin to return to seasonal averages as the inland valleys reach the middle 70s to middle 80s while the Bayshore sees highs in the upper 60s to middle 70s. Highs along the coastal regions remain relatively constant and cool, owing to the sea breeze influence.

With an upper level trough coming through the western United States later this week into the weekend, the potential for an weak inside slider continues. Analysis of the global ensemble model clusters shows that the majority of the model ensembles are pointing towards a open wave trough this weekend, around 30-45% of the model ensembles -- mainly driven by those from the American GEFS and Canadian GEPS models -- continue to hint at a potential closed low developing across the Intermountain West. Such a low could drive dry, offshore (at this stage, more northerly instead of easterly( flow over our region, helping to enhance the fire weather risk.
Without a firm track and intensity for the upcoming low pressure system, such talk remains something to keep in the back of your mind rather than something to take immediate action on. Keep an eye out for further forecast updates as the system's evolution continues through the week.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1050 AM PDT Mon May 12 2025

The bulk of the rain has moved through much of region, the exception being central and southern Monterey and San Benito counties. Behind it, a mix of sun and clouds remain along with the possibility for isolated to scattered showers. VFR to MVFR conditions are expected, through the afternoon. Winds have already started to shift and become more westerly at some sites, with others following suit.
Conditions begin drying by the evening with precip chances coming to an end. Models continue to trend towards MVFR cigs returning for KHAF, KSJC, KLVK, and Monterey Bay terminals. There is a weaker signal around KSFO and KOAK, though this has been hinted at. North Bay terminals should remain VFR overnight.

Vicinity of SFO...The main band of rain has moved through the region, and we can expect a partial clearing of skies behind it.
Post frontal showers are expected through the afternoon which may impact the terminal and bring brief periods of reduced cig and/or vis to SFO. Drier conditions are expected by the evening; however, guidance hints at lower clouds returning to the San Francisco area.
Opted to trend towards the possibility of MVFR cigs tonight with clearing expected by mid to late morning. Tomorrow afternoon and evening, breezy west to northwest winds are expected where gusts up to 25 or 30 mph will be possible.

SFO Bridge Approach...Current satellite imagery shows the cloudy skies over the bay with cameras showing reduced cigs. This may linger through the morning and early afternoon hours, with potential brief areas of clearing should showers avoid the region. As we head into the evening, the forecast is similar to SFO for MVFR cigs returning.

Monterey Bay Terminals...The main band of rain has moved through this morning which brought reduced periods of vis and cig to the Monterey Bay region. Behind it, we have the potential for lingering showers which may bring additional periods of reduced cig and vis.
By the evening, conditions dry out, winds ease, and MVFR cigs return for the overnight hours. Conditions should begin to clear out by mid to late morning.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 232 PM PDT Mon May 12 2025

Winds have shifted to the west and northwest this afternoon as the front has worked through the region. A few post frontal showers will remain possible this afternoon, with drier air working in overnight. The moderate to fresh west to northwest breeze become northwesterly this evening and become fresh to strong by Tuesday, with seas building in response. Near gale to gale force gusts are expected by Tuesday night. Hazardous marine conditions look to continue through the week.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Gale Warning from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.