Sunrise 6:07 AM   Sunset 7:51 PM Moonrise 11:02 PM   Moonset 7:11 AM

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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 334 Am Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
Through 7 am - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Today - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Sun - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. Wed - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Wed night - SE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.

ANZ600 334 Am Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure becomes centered off the mid atlantic coast today, keeping east to southeast winds across the region. The high then becomes anchored off the southeast coast from Sunday through the middle of next week, with winds generally south to southwest across the local waters.

FXUS61 KAKQ 270702 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 302 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure offshore moves south into early next week with a ridge building over the area. Well above normal temperatures are expected through next week. An unsettled pattern sets up from Tuesday into next weekend with multiple chances for showers and storms.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

A ~1034mb high pressure was centered just offshore of Long Island early this morning. This has allowed for light E flow to continue this morning. Mid level clouds continue to increase in coverage ahead of a subtle shortwave with mostly cloudy skies expected today.
A few very light showers are possible this morning across the far NW portions of the FA and across N portions of the FA this afternoon with little to no accumulation. Clouds gradually diminish late tonight. Temps this morning generally ranged from the upper 40s to lower 50s with highs this afternoon in the lower 60s NE to the lower 70s SW (most in the 60s). Lows tonight in the upper 40s NE with low- mid 50s elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

A ridge builds over the area into early next week with a warmup expected as winds become SW. Dry with increasing humidity. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s Sun and mid to upper 80s Mon. A few locations may reach 90F on Mon with NBM 75th percentile showing ~90F. Lows in the upper 50s SW to lower 60s NE Sun and Mon night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

The ridge lingers over the E CONUS next week with well above normal temps expected. Highs in the mid-upper 80s Tue with the NBM 75th percentile showing the potential for 90F in a few locations.
Trending cooler along the coast from mid-late week due to onshore flow as a backdoor cold front moves in Wed afternoon as high pressure slides off the coast. As such, highs in the mid 80s inland and 70s along the coast are expected Wed and Thu. Highs may reach the lower 80s along the VA coast on Fri with 70s across the Eastern Shore. Highs Sat in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows remain mild through the week in the mid 50s to lower 60s each night.

Next week will not only "feel" Summer-like due to warm temperatures but also in the sense that an unsettled pattern develops from Tue- Sat with multiple chances for showers/storms. Several shortwaves move through the area during this time, however, global models disagree with timing for each of these subtle features. As such, have maintained NBM PoPs. Tue could feature some isolated to scattered storms, but models are not very excited about convection.
Therefore, have 25-30% PoPs across the far W portions of the FA with <20% PoPs elsewhere. Confidence is low in any convection Wed and Thu with only a slight chance <20% for any convection. Fri appears to be the greatest chance for showers/storms with PoPs of 35-45% W and 30- 40% E. A cold front approaches the area Sat with additional showers/storms possible (30-35% PoPs).

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 120 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 06z taf period. Mid level clouds continue to move into the area tonight into Sat with CIGs mainly 5000-7000ft (lower in the Piedmont where MVFR CIGs are possible Sat). As such, mainly BKN sky cover continues through the day before becoming SCT Sat night with CIGs improving. Dry at the terminals with a few very light showers possible across the Piedmont late tonight into Sat and across N portions of the FA Sat afternoon. Winds were generally E <5 kt inland and 5-10 kt along the coast tonight. Winds become ESE/SE 5-10 kt by mid to late morning.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions are expected at all terminals from Sat night through at least Mon.

MARINE
As of 230 AM EDT Saturday...

Early this morning, strong ~1033mb high pressure remains centered just off the New England coast. Winds are generally out of the east and range from 10 to 15 knots with a few locally higher gusts. Seas continue to diminish and now range from 3 to 4 feet. Although seas may approach 5 feet out 20 nm/south of the VA/NC border, will allow the SCA to end as scheduled with seas expected to diminish further over the next few hours.

Onshore winds of 10-15kt continue today into tonight as high pressure is slowly pushed offshore. Sunday into early next week, high pressure moves further offshore and gets pushed S. With this movement, winds become southerly (still at 10-15kt) Sunday through Tuesday. During this period, seas will be 3-4ft and waves 1-2ft. A front approaches the waters late Tuesday into early Wednesday with winds briefly becoming NW and then SE behind the front (winds still ~10kt).

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ658.

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Pungoteague Creek
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Sat -- 02:09 AM EDT     1.99 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:00 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:36 PM EDT     1.59 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:46 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pungoteague Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

Chesconessex Creek
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Sat -- 02:30 AM EDT     2.36 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:17 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:57 PM EDT     1.89 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:03 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chesconessex Creek, Schooner Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

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