Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Southside Chesconessex, VA

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
As of 945 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Not as cold tonight given a light SW wind.

Surface high pressure remains centered across the Southeast extending into the Mid-Atlantic this evening. Meanwhile, a clipper system was located over the Great Lakes and will continue to move into New England tonight into Sunday. As it approaches New England, the pressure gradient will tighten a bit over the local area, resulting in SW winds increasing to ~10 mph after midnight (gusts up to ~20 mph possible near the coast late tonight). Temps as of 940 PM ranged from the upper 20s to lower 30s SE to the mid 30s NW. Lows tonight have likely already occurred (temps dropped into the upper 20s to around 30F across much of the E and SE portions of the FA earlier this evening) given a brief lull in the winds ahead of the tightening pressure gradient. For the remainder of the night, expect temps to fluctuate (given variations in wind speed) but generally remain in the 30s (coldest in SE VA/NE NC and warmest across the Piedmont and Eastern Shore). Clouds persist through the night across the NW given a strengthening LLJ oriented perpendicular to the Blue Ridge with mainly clear skies elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Milder high temperatures as light rain chances return Sunday night into Monday.

The local area will remain dry on Sunday as west/southwesterly winds bring in milder temperatures. Highs will reach into the lower 60s, which will feel like summer-weather compared to the last week of significant cold. Mostly sunny skies will persist along with a light breeze for most of the day. Moisture will begin to increase Sunday night as more cloud cover moves in from west to east. Lows will stay in the mid to upper 30s across the CWA

Looks like rain will move in from west to east Monday morning as the remnants of a low pressure system move out of the Mississippi River Valley. This appears to be a quick shot at rainfall, with totals being rather light. Best chances for seeing rain will be across the west and north, with relative lower chances across SE VA and NE NC.
QPF ranges from 0.15-0.2" in the Piedmont to 0.1" or less in the SE.
Chances come to an end by Monday evening, besides a lingering chance across NE NC into the overnight. Highs will be in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees, with lows Monday night holding in the lower to mid 40s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front approaches the region Tuesday night into Wednesday with widespread rainfall expected across the region.

- Colder/drier air filters into the area behind the cold front with dry conditions expected for the second half of the week.

12z model guidance remains in good agreement with respect to the timing and placement of low pressure and the associated cold frontal passage. Rain looks to move in from the west Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Guidance indicates an increasing potential for beneficial rainfall from this event with an area average QPF ranging from 0.75-1.50". GFS is also trying to highlight a narrow band of heavier rainfall totals along and just east of the Blue Ridge. The front looks to be moving offshore by the evening hours, with wind gusts picking up to 15-20mph inland and 20-30mph near the coast. High temperatures will depend on the timing of the front with many areas across the west and north seeing their daily high temps in the morning before much cooler and drier air moves in during the afternoon.
A few wet snow flakes could mix in across the our NW Piedmont counties as precipitation departs, but not expecting any impacts from it as 'cold air chasing the precip' setups rarely result in anything noteworthy. Skies will clear from west to east overnight as lows tumble back into the 20s behind the front.
Wind chills will be in the upper teens to low 20s prior to sunrise.

Dry and cold conditions will be on the docket once again for Thursday as high pressure settles into the region. Expect highs to be in the lower 40s, with the really noticeable chill returning Thursday night with lows dipping down to around 20 degrees inland. Mid to upper 40s are forecast for Friday, with slightly "warmer" temperatures expected overnight into Saturday as the high moves offshore and southwesterly flow develops.

AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 630 PM EST Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail through Sunday. Mid to high clouds continue to stream off the mountains this evening and will likely persist through much of the night given the LLJ oriented perpendicular to the Blue Ridge. As such so will maintain FEW- SCT sky cover for RIC/SBY tonight. SSW winds were ~5-8 kt this evening. However, winds are expected to increase to around 10-12 kt after midnight as the pressure gradient tightens a bit ahead of a passing clipper system moving into New England. LLWS initially from 240 degrees after midnight, becoming 270 degrees at 35-40kt later tonight is expected to develop for much of central VA including RIC. LLWS subsides by Sunday morning with surface SW winds increasing to 10-13 kt with gusts up to 20 kt.
Clouds decrease through the day.

Outlook: Rain chances return Monday through Wednesday and could result in some flight restrictions as moisture levels increase across the area.

MARINE
As of 245 PM EST Saturday...

Key messages:

-SCAs have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay, all coastal waters, Lower James River,and Currituck Sound from late this evening-midday Sunday as SW winds will increase to 15-25 knots.

-Sub-SCA conditions return from Sunday night-Tuesday night.

-A frontal system will bring another round of SCAs from Wednesday through Thursday. A brief period of low-end gale force gusts cannot be ruled out Wednesday evening-Wednesday night.

A large area of high pressure is situated just to the S of the area this afternoon. Benign conditions are present across the local waters with westerly winds of 5-10kt. Buoy obs reflect seas of 2-3ft and waves around 1ft. This evening and overnight, a clipper low pressure system will progress through the Great Lakes and into New England. The result will be a tighter pressure gradient between the low to the N and high pressure to the S. Winds turn to the SW and increase late this evening. By late tonight, winds will be up to 20- 25kt with gusts to 30kt in the bay, coastal waters, lower James, and Currituck Sound. The upper rivers will see 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt. The Currituck Sound and the NC coastal waters were added to the existing SCAs for the Bay, lower James, and VA/MD seas. During this period, seas increase to 4-5ft (6ft near 20nm) off the Eastern Shore and 3-4ft for southern waters. Waves will be 3-4ft in the bay, 2ft in the rivers and sound. Conditions will improve through the day tomorrow as both the clipper low and the high pressure slide offshore. Expect SW will be diminished to 10-15kt by late afternoon.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected for the early week period. However, will note that increased southerly winds are anticipated for Monday afternoon. Given that the forecast winds are just under SCA thresholds, cannot rule out a brief SCA should winds trend stronger.
Seas will generally be 2-3 ft with 1-3 ft waves from Mon-Tue.
Otherwise, the next period of SCAs looks to be early Wed into Thursday ahead of and behind a strong cold front. S/SW winds once again increase to 15-25kt ahead of the front Wed. Winds switch to the NW (~25kt) by Wed night. Low-end gale force gusts will be possible Wed night.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ630>634-638- 650-652-654-656-658.