Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kilmarnock, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 635 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Dry, chilly, and breezy conditions today.

High pressure builds over the SE CONUS later today into tonight, leading to dry conditions and sunny skies this afternoon. It will remain breezy today, with west winds gusting to 25 to 35 mph at times. Today will also be the chilliest day of the forecast period with high temperatures staying in the 40s. Not quite as cold tonight due to increasing mid-level cloud cover and and elevated WSW breeze, lows will generally range from the low to mid 30s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 230 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures moderate back closer to average on Wednesday.

- A dry cold front crosses the area Wednesday night into early Thursday.

Remaining dry on Wednesday with high pressure to our south.
Temperatures will rebound, with highs climbing to around 60 for most locations. A cold front approaches and crosses the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. With a very dry airmass parked over the area, not expecting any rain with this front. Temperatures on Thursday will run 1-2 degrees cooler compared to Wednesday, but still remaining seasonable with highs ranging from the mid 50s to around 60.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 230 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Dry weather and seasonable temperatures through Saturday

- Another system may approach the area Sunday into early next week, bringing the next chance for rain.

High confidence remains in northwesterly flow aloft through the end of the week into the weekend. At the surface, high pressure will remain parked over the SE CONUS. This will continue to support seasonable temperatures and dry weather. Another frontal system approaches later Sunday into Monday, bringing our next chance for some light rain. Moisture appears fairly limited at this time with this system (00z EPS and GEFS each show ~0.10"). There will also be a decent warm up out ahead of this front on Sunday as southerly flow increases. Highs on Sunday will top out in the upper 60s to around 70 for most inland portions of the area.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 635 AM EST Tuesday...

VFR conditions continue through the 12z/11 TAF period. Mainly SKC skies are expected this morning through much of the remainder of the forecast period. Winds become W 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt by late this morning into this afternoon.
Mid and high level clouds increase tonight from west to east.

Outlook: VFR/dry tonight through Saturday with breezy conditions during the afternoon hours.

MARINE
As of 220 AM EST Tuesday..

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through early this morning, with a transition to Gale Warnings at 4AM across the Bay, Ocean, and Sound.

- Winds drop off slightly, but remain elevated late Tuesday- Thursday with SCAs likely.

Early morning weather analysis shows a strong 990 low pressure system across northern Maine and a 1032 high over the Deep South.
The pressure gradient from these two systems have tightened allowing winds to increase to 20 to 25 kt with gusts upwards of 30 kt across all waters. Seas continue to remain low with 2 to 3ft across the bay and 3 to 4 ft seas across the ocean. Colder and much drier air is continuing to move across the area this morning. As it moves over across the area and moves over relatively warmer seas it will lead to optimal mixing. the Small Crafts in effect will transition to Gale warnings at 4AM and last through the early evening hours of today.
Confidence continues to remain the highest over the coastal waters (gusts 35-40 kt), but still anticipate marginal Gale conditions over the Bay/Sound. Due to the offshore wind directions this will keep sig Wave heights in the 4-6 ft range with 3-5 ft waves in the Bay through this afternoon. Recent model guidance continues to show winds decreasing below Gale conditions around 18z in the Bay/Sound but these Gale warnings maybe dropped sooner depending on speed of the wind. However, if these Gales are dropped they will be replaced by SCA. By this evening and through tonight winds will continue to average between 20 to 25 kt with gusts upwards of 30 kt as the winds turn out of the southwest. Elevated west winds continue through Wednesday and into Thursday with seas still mainly 4-5 ft and waves 2-4 ft in the Bay before finally dropping below SCA thresholds Thursday evening/night.

FIRE WEATHER
As of 230 AM EST Tuesday...

It will be dry and windy today, with min RH values of 25-35%.
However, the cold temperatures (most areas at or below freezing to start the day), and rainfall amounts as high as 1-2" over the past 36 hrs in some areas, will mitigate the threat. Therefore, did not issue any SPS/Fire Danger Statements.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ012>017- 030>032-102.
VA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for VAZ065-075>090- 092-093-095>100-512>525.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634- 656-658.
Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ635>638.
Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ650-652-654.