Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kilmarnock, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1005 AM EST Saturday...

Key Message:

- Remaining chilly and mostly sunny today, though with less wind.

High pressure was centered over the forecast area this morning, allowing for mostly sunny skies and light winds. Temps as of 10 AM ranged from the mid 30s to around 40F with most locations in the upper 30s. The flow aloft was quasi- zonal behind a departing trough over New England. Well to our W (over the Plains and CO Front Range), a mid-level trough and attendant sfc low continue to develop. High pressure will remain over the area today before moving offshore this evening into tonight. As a result, expect much lighter winds today with daytime wind chills warmer than yesterday, despite similar temps in the mid 40s for most (upper 40s are possible across far SE VA/NE NC).
Sunny/mostly sunny skies are also expected through most of the afternoon. Thicker high clouds then overspread the region tonight as the high shifts offshore. Although modest WAA is expected ahead of the next system, overnight lows should still be cold with 20s inland and 30s near the coast.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 235 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly light rain expected Sunday, with cooler temps W/NW and warmer temps E/SE.

- Drying out Monday with temps remaining below normal.

Moisture overspreads the region early Sunday in advance of a cold front. A period of overrunning rain is possible by the mid-morning hours across the far W/NW Piedmont, with the chance of rain spreading eastward in the afternoon (and to the coast by the evening). While temps initially will be cold, WAA should allow temps to rise above freezing before any precip arrives. Any frozen precip will likely be confined to areas W of our CWA and especially in the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge. With light precip and clouds lingering across the NW for most of the day, temps will struggle to get out the 40s. In fact, some of the cooler guidance (NAM/MET)
keeps our far NW Piedmont counties in the upper 30s Sunday. Will not go this cool, but it remains a possibility. Further E and SE, temps warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s with the rain/showers arriving later in the day. The cold front clears the area in the evening as cool high pressure again builds in from the west. Cold advection and gradually clearing skies Sunday night leads to sub-freezing lows inland, with 32-37 F across far SE VA and coastal NE NC. Winds also become breezy post-frontal at the immediate coast, with gusts up to 25-30 MPH.

Mostly sunny and cool Monday with high pressure again taking control. Forecast highs are in the mid-upper 40s. Temps initially fall into the 20s and 30s overnight Monday, but a developing low pressure system to our SW will bring a significant increase in clouds late in the night. Therefore, temps are likely to level off or increase a few degrees early Tuesday morning. Some light precip potentially overspreads the area after 09z/4 AM Tuesday morning, but will discuss this in the Long Term section below.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 235 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Cool weather continues through next week inland with occasional days of mild weather across far SE VA and NE NC.

- A widespread wetting rain is likely on Tuesday with greater than one inch of rain possible across SE VA and NE NC.

- Rain may start as a brief period of freezing rain across portions of the Piedmont late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Confidence continues to increase in a stronger system impacting the area Tuesday. A shortwave is progged to eject out of the Intermountain West region late Monday into early Tuesday, with a weak surface low developing along the western Gulf coast during this time. Meanwhile, over the local area, high pressure initially remains in place early Tuesday, before quickly retreating to our NE later in the day. The low should then track along the Southeast coast Tuesday afternoon and then move overhead or just S of the area in the evening. Cold air will initially be in place Tuesday morning, though it remains uncertain if precip will arrive soon to enough to lead to any frozen p-type concerns. There remains some temporal differences among the guidance with the GFS and CMC quicker than the ECMWF with the initial precip onset. Mid-level WAA will also compromise the depth of the cold air as the sfc high retreats, so any initial precip that falls in this cold airmass would be light freezing rain or perhaps ice pellets/sleet if the cold air is a bit deeper (versus snow). NBM probabilities for 0.01" of ice are around 20% across our NW Piedmont counties (Louisa/Fluvanna), with the 0.1" only around 5%. Will initially show a slight chc of freezing rain and sleet across the NW at onset, transitioning to rain and freezing rain for these same areas for the rest of the morning.
With (slowly) increasing temps, don't foresee this event being a major issue and will limit any measurable freezing rain (only 0.01" at that) to Fluvanna and western Louisa counties. Should sfc temps trend warmer and/or precip trend even later, any threat for winter precip would drop to zero.

Later in the afternoon and evening, broad ascent downstream of the trough and favorable right entrance jet streak forcing will favor widespread precip as the low moves through, which could be locally heavy at times. There is increasing confidence in a soaking rainfall with PoPs 90-100% for the entire area. Probabilities for >1" of rain from a NBM/LREF consensus is ~60+% across the SE half of the CWA, with lower, but still non-zero, probs further NW. For >0.50", probs were generally in excess of 80-90% areawide.
Localized totals of >2" are possible and would likely be confined to SE VA and NE NC. WPC has maintained a Marginal (level 1 out 4) excessive rainfall outlook for most of our area (minus the far W/NW), although the current thinking is any flooding threat is very low due to antecedent dry conditions and the longer duration of the rainfall. Precip quickly ends from W to E Tuesday night and dry conditions return Wednesday and Thursday. Another southern-stream system could bring additional precip later Friday into the first part of next weekend. At this time, predominantly rain is expected, but cannot rule out some frozen precip inland (confidence is very low).

A tight temp gradient is expected Tuesday with highs ranging from the upper 50s/lower 60s SE to upper 30s/lower 40s NW. Cooler temps prevail Wednesday through Friday, with Thursday likely the "mildest" day with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Overnight lows will range through the 20s inland and 30s near the coast.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 1255 PM EST Saturday...

VFR conditions across area terminals this afternoon prevail through tonight, with dry wx expected. A 5-8 kt N/NW wind at coastal terminals (SBY/ORF/ECG) today, with light and variable winds at PHF/RIC and farther inland. High clouds overspread the region late this afternoon, thickening and lowering late this evening and overnight ahead of a cold front. Rain chances arrive Sunday afternoon, as early as midday at KRIC and vicinity, shifting to the coast late in the aftn through Sun night, as the front crosses into the area. Some short-lived sub-VFR flight restrictions MVFR and perhaps even some LLWS will be possible as the front crosses the area late Sun aftn and evening.

Outlook: Winds become N behind the front overnight Sunday and Monday morning, and will be elevated through midday along the coast. The front stalls just south of the local area on Monday, with another system to lift NNE along the front Tue-Wed, bringing a more widespread rain to the region. Flight restrictions are likely as early as late Monday night, continuing through much of Tue/Tue night. VFR conditions return Wed/Thu.

MARINE
As of 700 AM EST Saturday...

- Extended Small Craft Advisories through 10 AM this morning due to elevated NW winds.

- Benign conditions return today into early Sunday with high pressure, but then another period of SCAs is likely Sunday night/Monday behind the next cold front.

- A complex coastal low pressure system brings degraded marine conditions Tuesday into Wednesday of next week, with SCAs likely and low-end gales possible.

NW winds are gradually diminishing over the coastal waters this morning as high pressure builds into the area from the west.
Observations over the Bay still show winds in the 15 - 25 kt range with a few gust near 30 kt and similar conditions on the coastal waters off of the Delmarva, though not right near the coast. As the area of high pressure, now centered over Southern WV moves over the waters later today, expect the winds to continue to diminish. For now, the SCA headlines remain in effect until 10 AM.

The area of high pressure quickly moves from being centered over the Mid Atlantic states to offshore by Sunday morning with a shift in the winds to the SE and then S on Sunday ahead of a rapidly approaching cold front. The models are in sync with the timing of the front moving through the area Sunday evening. There should be enough cold air moving in to allow sufficient mixing for SCA level winds. The only potential issue could be the upper trough is lifting NE away from the area, which could limit the southern extend of the SCA level winds. So for now, will not add a new headline for possible SCA conditions Sunday night into Monday.

High pressure again returns over the area on Monday midday into Early Tuesday Morning. This will allow a period of calmer conditions before a stronger southern stream storm system arrives for Tuesday into Wednesday. Initially, winds should be out of the E- SE as the main low pressure system heads into the Ohio Valley with the surface high retreating to the NE. But as a coastal low develops, expect the winds to switch to the NW and intensify as the low pressure off the coast deepens as it heads NE. While gale conditions are possible with this system, there is still uncertainty with the track of the sfc low and how quickly the low pressure strengthens that could impact the timing and strength of the winds.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ638.