Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Boston, KY

UPDATE
Issued at 1127 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Light radar returns continue to train across our southern IN counties; however, sfc obs continue to suggest that most/all of the snow aloft is sublimating before reaching the ground. SDF ACARS soundings continue to show a stout dry layer below 700 mb, with little in the way of top-down saturation taking place over the past few hours. RAP mesoanalysis continues to show the best LLJ/moisture advection over the Mississippi Valley and into southern IL, though this should begin to shift east later this afternoon. Until better moisture can saturate the lowest 10 kft, it will be difficult to get much precipitation to the ground.

No major changes to the forecast at this time. Where the mid-level deck is located this morning, temps have run a few degrees below the previous forecast, so have blended to short-range consensus guidance which is handling this better.

Issued at 848 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

A mid-level stratus deck has overspread most of the area this morning, with the exception of areas around Lake Cumberland and points along the TN border. As this stratus deck has moved overhead, temperatures have gradually risen into the upper 20s east of I-65 and into the low 30s west of I-65. Regional radars do show light returns beginning to work into SW and central Indiana, but obs indicate that most of this is not reaching the ground until you get west of the Wabash Valley.

As we head through the rest of the morning hours, winds will steadily increase out of the E/SE, and temperatures are expected to warm above freezing, particularly across southern and central KY.
Greater saturation over IN may eventually lead to pockets of flurries and light snow showers by around midday, and some of these flurries could make it into north central KY this afternoon. It still looks like no significant impacts are expected with this, and there are no major changes to the forecast at this time. Did make some minor adjustments to PoP trends for this evening and tonight to incorporate preliminary 12Z hi-res data.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 419 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

The main focus for the short term will be the arrival of a strong storm system coming out of the central plains moving through the Ohio Valley and into the Great Lakes by Sunday morning. Short range, hi-resolution guidance is doing a good job this morning with the main main precipitation shield that is currently stretches from IA through most of MO into western AR, with mainly snow falling north of a line from St. Louis to Kansas City.

As this system approaches during the morning, we will initially see high clouds as the main precipitation shield will be to our west through IL into MO and AR. A very strong 60-65kt LLJ behind the precipitation will continue to advect warm and moist air northward into the Ohio Valley. It appears the hi-res short range guidance is showing a much clearer picture on where this storm system is headed and where most of the precipitation will fall today into tonight.
Current guidance takes the sfc low as well as the best overall dynamics and lift and keeps it to our west over IL and then northward through the northern half of Indiana. As warm and moist air advection increases ahead of this system during the day, dry air associated with the colder air at the surface will initially keep most if not all of the precipitation from reaching the ground. Model sounding show a good dry layer between 800-900mb and any snow that may try to form this morning or early afternoon will initially sublimate as it works through this dry layer. At best, we may see a few flurries or flakes across southern IN and parts of norther KY through the first half of the day.

Our best chance for precipitation arrives late afternoon into early evening as band of precipitation associated with leading edge of the LLJ will work along the Ohio River northward between 22z to 01z.
There may be enough cold air north of the Ohio River that we could see an initial burst of snow or rain/snow mix but the trend in guidance seems to be that the warm layer wins out scouring out the near sfc cold air before the main precipitation arrives. While it is still possible that a few of our far northern southern IN counties could see a quick burst of accumulating snow, the likelihood of that happening have been dropping since yesterday as most of the forcing works north and the WAA wins out. Most will just see rain as the precipitation arrives later this afternoon and early evening.

Scattered light to moderate rain showers are expected through the evening and overnight Saturday into Sunday morning with temperatures holding fairly steady in the 40s to upper 30s. Wind gusts of 20-30 mph are expected as the LLJ pushes through the Ohio Valley this evening and a tight sfc gradient associated with the passing storm system.

Strong cold front works in from the west to the east quickly Sunday morning, with winds shifting from the south to the west behind the front. This will also be followed by strong reinforcing shot of cold air behind it. Temperatures will quickly drop into the mid 30s and then hold steady and slowly drop through the day. Sunday will be cold and blustery under mostly cloudy skies with winds still gusting to around 20-25 mph, making it feel like it is in the mid 20s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 419 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

In the long term our attention turns to the next system that will impact the region late Monday into Tuesday. Shortwave trough working out of the Four Corners and through the southern Plains Monday night will interact with a developing sfc low coming out of the western Gulf. As the shortwave trough axis works across the OH and TN Valleys, the sfc low tracks across the southeast towards the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic coast by Tuesday afternoon.

This will advect Gulf moisture Northwest into the Ohio Valley during the day Monday. The combination of isentropic lift associated with the warm and moist air advection and a mid level jet streak ahead of the mid-level trough axis, we will not be lacking for lift and forcing allowing for widespread moderate to potentially heavy precipitation to develop over the area Monday night into Tuesday.

As was mentioned in the previous forecast, while this would normally be a classic setup for a winter storm over the Ohio Valley, we will be lacking a strong deep cold airmass to keep the precipitation as mostly snow. While the deterministic guidance of the GFS and EURO ensembles agree that we will likely see a wide variety of p-types over the CWA, the confidence on where it will snow, where it it will be a wintry mix of snow, sleet and even freezing rain to even just plain rain remains the main challenge. We continue to see consensus in the models suggesting we will see a NE to SW snow/mix/rain line bisect the Common Wealth but where does this boundary sets up remains the main challenge in the forecast. The latest 00z run of the deterministic had the ECMWF keeping that line along the WK/BG Parkways while the GFS had shifted the warmer air further north the wintry mix line along the Ohio River. As we go through the weekend we will start to see the the guidance between the deterministic models to come together on a common solution helping us increase overall confidence. For now, to help with messaging of potential impacts, we will stay away from specific numbers and focus more on potential impacts and general placement for the various p-type associated with this system.

Once we get through this system on Tuesday, the rest of the week looks to be dry as our forecast will be dominated by sfc high pressure through the region. Temperatures will remain below normal with highs mainly in the mid/upper 30s with the possibility of some 40s. We could see the next potential system arrive by the start of next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1247 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

A low pressure system and an associated cold front will move across the region later today through Sunday morning, bringing rain showers, gusty winds, and MVFR ceilings. This afternoon, VFR conditions should continue at all sites as mid-level clouds gradually build down. Winds should veer to the southeast and increase in strength later this afternoon and evening. The first few bands of rain showers should begin to move from west to east across the area after 21Z this afternoon. While there could be a very short period of a mix with sleet or snow (particularly at HNB), precipitation should change to all rain within an hour of onset.
Tonight, as the cold front moves into the area, winds should strengthen and continue to veer to the south-southwest. 20-25 kt wind gusts are possible later tonight, especially if low-level stability is weaker than expected. CIGs should gradually drop to MVFR levels from west to east tonight, and the exact timing of category changes is a bit uncertain. Around sunrise Sunday, the cold front should move through the area, with breezy west winds and MVFR CIGs expected behind the front Sunday.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...None.
IN...None.