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FXUS63 KLMK 291146 AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 646 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

Updated Aviation Discussion

Short Term
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

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Key Messages

- Cold and blustery start to the morning (20s & Teens)

- Temperatures warm to near normal this afternoon (near 50)

- Breezy southwest winds during the day (Gusts 25-30 mph)

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Very cold start to the morning as temperatures have already dropped into the mid/upper teens. Winds have been generally light along with clear skies that have helped to drop temperatures so far this morning. Even with light southerly winds (5mph or less) wind chills were ranging between 10-15 degrees. While strong sfc high pressure located over the deep south will keep us dry and sunny, a weak shortwave trough will bring a strong LLJ into the Ohio Valley during the morning hours. Even with a strong temperatures inversion around 900mb, winds will start to increase this morning into the afternoon out of the southwest. Sustained winds will be between 15-20 with gusts of 25-30 mph.

The upper air pattern starts so flatten out over the Ohio Valley today as the strong sfc high to our south moves to the east and over the southeastern US by tomorrow morning. Return flow and slight ridging developing over the region will increase warm air advection boosting temperatures to around normal values for late November.
Despite the very cold start, temperatures in the afternoon will reach the low/mid 50s for southwestern and central KY and the upper 40s to near 50 across the Bluegrass and back across northern KY and southern IN.

Return flow around the departing sfc high along with the development of weak ridging will allow for more warm moist air to advect into the Ohio Valley. This will increase high clouds over the area and help keep temperatures mild compared to previous nights. Lows will be in the low to mid 30s.

Long Term
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

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Key Messages:

- Widespread rainfall Thursday night into Friday. Expected rainfall amounts 0.25-0.75"

- Breezy conditions expected on Friday

- Above normal temperatures expected through this weekend, closer to normal values early next week

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Thursday - Friday Night...

Looking for another dry day on Thursday as zonal flow aloft and the western fringes of surface high pressure anchored off the mid Atlantic hold influence over our area. Expect to see a pretty steady SW surface wind/warm advection component which will help temps rise into the 55 to 60 degree range across the area. Could be a setup to get even milder than that, however a bit of uncertainty will linger given increasing upper sky cover the deeper into the afternoon we get. Either way, temps slightly above normal look on track.

Focus shifts to an approaching southern stream system Thursday night into Friday morning as a shortwave and associated surface low eject out of the Red River Valley to the mid Mississippi River Valley. The system will be able to draw on a good bit of gulf moisture as it approaches given the 60 knot low level jet. As a result, PWAT values look to surge up around 1" through the column between 06-12z Friday morning, which is when widespread rain will overspread the area from SW to NE. Will continue to carry 90-100% pops between 06-15z where the bulk of rainfall totals between .25"-.75" should fall. Highest rainfall totals are expected across our NW CWA, with the lower totals expected across the SE CWA.

Closed upper system over the mid Mississippi River Valley will rapidly weaken to an open wave as it quickly passes to New England by Friday evening. The available deep moisture shuts off pretty quickly on Friday as a result of this, and will only keep lingering light rain showers in the forecast heading into Friday afternoon/night. Interestingly, the surface reflection will be left in the wake of the upper system, and will weaken as it passes just to our north. This keeps us pretty mild under gusty SW surface flow (25-35 mph). Looking for similar high temps to Thursday with max values mostly in the 55 to 60 degree range.

Saturday - Tuesday...

Temperatures are expected to stay above normal (mid 50s to low 60s)
through the weekend as we remain under broad SW flow aloft, and light warm advective components for much of the time. In addition, it appears we remain mostly dry with our region situated between different northern and southern stream systems.

Sunday night into the early next week period, we'll start to see some influence from a NE CONUS trough. Most notably, a couple of shortwaves embedded within the parent trough will skirt our NE CWA, and my bring some light rain chances. There is a pretty decent signal for a slightly stronger clipper system for the Tuesday or Wednesday time frame among 29/00z deterministic models, so will carry slightly higher pops there. In addition, temps may dip a bit cooler back toward normal values this time of year.

Aviation
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 635 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

Current 850mb mesoanalysis shows a strong LLJ working into western KY. Continue to keep LLWS in the forecast for HNB, SDF, BWG through the start of the forecast to around 16z when the LLJ weakens. Other than some passing clouds across central IN, flight categories remain VFR. Winds will increase from the south-southwest as the LLJ works across the area this morning and today. Winds could gust to 20- 25kts. Winds will die down later this evening and be more southerly as high clouds stream in overnight and into tomorrow.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
KY...None.

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