Boston, KY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Boston, KY

June 19, 2024 12:02 AM EDT (04:02 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:20 AM   Sunset 9:09 PM
Moonrise 6:15 PM   Moonset 3:04 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Boston, KY
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Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY
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FXUS63 KLMK 190121 AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 921 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

KEY MESSAGES

* Above normal temperatures expected on Wednesday with increasingly warm conditions for the late week and into the weekend.

* Spotty coverage of afternoon thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, then dry Wednesday through Saturday.

UPDATE
Issued at 921 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Afternoon and evening showers and storms are beginning to dissipate now that dusk is settling in. Storms west of I-65 were gusty up to 35mph and brought some much needed rain to these areas. Rain and gusty winds quickly cooled these areas into the low-mid 70s. Other areas are in the low-mid 80s, currently. Convective debris and high clouds will stick around for the night, stalling radiational cooling efforts. Low temperatures in the morning have been lowered a few degrees in areas that received rain this evening. Temperatures in the morning are expected to be in the upper 60s over Lake Cumberland, low 70s west of I-65, and mid 70s everywhere else.
Tomorrow, clouds will remain over the region, helping to keep temperatures in low 90s and heat indices in the low-mid 90s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Afternoon obs show a mix of sun and clouds across the region. The clouds have kept temps down a bit this afternoon with highs so far today in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Dewpoints were in the upper 60s to the low 70s resulting in heat indices in the upper 90s to the very low 100s in a few spots. Radar showed a few areas of convection across the region this afternoon. Our area is on the southwest flank of an upper level high which is centered off to our northeast.

A ring of convection has fired this afternoon from northern TN northwest into southwest KY and southwest IN. Mesoscale analysis shows stronger instability over eastern KY with a gradient of SBCAPE across central and into western KY. In general, SBCAPE decreases a bit as one heads east of I-65. West of I-65 SBCAPE was in the 1500- 2000 J/kg range with 2000-2500 J/kg of CAPE out east of I-75. Bulk shear was rather weak across the area which will likely limit overall convective growth. Plenty of DCAPE was available however and storms this afternoon/evening will be of the pulse variety.
Damaging downburst winds, intense CG lightning, and heavy rainfall will be the main threats with this activity. The most concentrated area of convection this afternoon should be from northern TN into the Bowling Green area and then northwestward toward Evansville/Owensboro. More isolated-scattered convection will be likely across the remainder of the forecast area through sunset and then convection should quickly diminish as the PBL cools. Highs on the day will be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s and should occur in the next 60-90 min. Temps will slowly cool this evening, except in areas that get a thunderstorm where a 15-20 degree cool down would be possible. Rainfall amounts with these storms could be impressive with a quick quarter to three quarters of an inch being possible.
Locally higher amounts could occur if storms were to train over a location.

For the overnight period, generally quiet weather is expected, though I can't rule out an isolated shower/storm, mainly over our southern IN counties. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to the lower 70s in most spots. The urban heat islands will remain in the mid-upper 70s overnight.

For Wednesday, upper level ridge will remain centered to our east, but the models show a bit of expansion of the ridge to the west as heights slowly rise across the region. Model soundings show some warming in the 850-700 hPa layer which will likely result in a bit more capping across the region. CAMs are much drier here and this agrees well with previous forecasts showing a drier trend beginning around this period. Given that model soundings show a bit of saturation in the 300-200 hPa layer, we'll probably have a bit of high cloud cover once again which will keep temperatures down. Have gone closer to the CONSShort guidance here with highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Anomalous (+2-3 SD height anomalies) mid/upper level ridging is forecast to retrograde westward across the Mid-South Thu and Fri. In fact, the center of the 500 mb high is forecast to pass directly over the Lower OH Valley during this time frame, providing plenty of subsidence and continued hot, dry weather.

Wednesday night looks partly cloudy and mild with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Thursday will be another hot day with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. Sfc dewpoints/humidity are still forecast to be just a touch lower, which will help "limit" heat indices to the mid/upper 90s.

The heat will reach its peak Friday and Saturday. 1000-850 mb thicknesses and temps tick upward a little bit each day.
Temperatures are expected to max out in the mid/upper 90s, and a couple sites will approach 100 degrees. A couple daily record highs could be in jeopardy, particularly the record highs for June 21 at SDF and LEX (see Climate section for more details. Heat index values around 100 will be possible both days.

By late in the weekend, it will still be hot. But ridging aloft is oriented more west-east by this time and suppressed across the southern US. This occurs as a stronger wave of low pressure moves east across the northern US. As this system tracks across the Great Lakes, it will drag a weak cold front through the region late Sunday into Monday. This will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms back to the region, though rain chances are only around 30% at this time. Temperatures still appear likely to warm well into the 90s on Sunday prior to the arrival of the front and associated cloud cover.
After a hot, dry stretch, any rainfall with this front will be welcome. Confidence remains low on rainfall amounts at this time.
The concern for rapid onset drought conditions will certainly by higher by this weekend, especially if rainfall amounts are light late Sun into Mon.

Some good news: model guidance suggests the possibility of more persistent upper level troughing during the middle of next week.
There is a stronger signal for appreciable rainfall in the 6-10 day time frame.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 705 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Expecting VFR conditions to remain through this TAF cycle. Showers over the region are now beginning to dissipate with loss of daytime heating. The remainder of the overnight period will consist of light and mostly variable winds, and broken high clouds. In the mid- morning, winds will begin to pick back up around 5-8kts out of the SSW.

CLIMATE
Issued at 317M EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

================== Near-Record High Temps ==================

Thursday 6/20/2024 Max T Fcst/Record (Year)

Louisville: 96/100 (1953)

Bowling Green: 94/102 (1936)

Lexington: 95/100 (1953)

Friday 6/21/2024 Warm Min T Fcst/Record (Year)

Louisville: 98/98 (1988)

Bowling Green: 97/102 (1933)

Lexington: 97/97 (1988)

Saturday 6/22/2024 Max T Fcst/Record (Year)

Louisville: 98/100 (2022)

Bowling Green: 97/102 (1901)

Lexington: 97/99 (1988)

Sunday 6/23/2024 Warm Min T/Record (Year)

Louisville: 95/98 (1988)

Bowling Green: 96/104 (1930)

Lexington: 93/96 (1988)

Note 1: Sunday temperatures are highly dependent on the arrival of an approaching cool front. If the front ends up slower, as some data suggests, then forecast temperatures will trend warmer.

Note 1: Some records may have duplicate years. The latest year the record occurred is displayed.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...Air Quality Alert from midnight Wednesday night to midnight EDT Thursday night for KYZ029>031.
IN...Air Quality Alert from midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ Wednesday night to midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ Thursday night for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.




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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KBRY SAMUELS FIELD,KY 8 sm27 mincalm10 smClear81°F77°F89%30.13
KEKX ADDINGTON FIELD,KY 16 sm27 mincalm10 smClear75°F72°F89%30.14
KFTK GODMAN AAF,KY 21 sm67 mincalm10 smA Few Clouds75°F73°F94%30.12
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Louisville, KY,




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