Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Boston, KY

Short Term
(Today – Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue May 20 2025

A surface low moves from the lower Missouri River Valley toward the upper Midwest today. This will help to lift a warm front northward to a corridor just north of I-64, which allows for a modest to moderately unstable airmass characterized by 1000-1500 J/KG of ML CAPE to develop into the afternoon. Much of this will depend on what happens with the first wave of convection which is set to arrive late morning into the early afternoon. If this clears quickly, then it sets the stage to re-destabilize ahead of the early to mid-evening round of storms just ahead of the cold front. 20/00z HRRR shows some breaks in the clouds which will help to energize the developing warm sector across our area, so there is some confidence in destabilization.

Aloft, we’ll see a negatively tilted shortwave axis rotate into our region, with the exit region of a mid level jet nosing into the area. A notably strong low-level jet around 30-40 knots responds beneath this feature, which creates plenty of shear for some organized updrafts and severe potential. Forecast soundings show some looping hodographs with 0-3 km SRH values mostly in the 100-200 m2/s2 range. The best chance for some values up around 200 will be across our S and SE CWA in evening hours. It should be noted that there is some concern up along the warm front, where values could be enhanced as well, perhaps significantly. However, instability is more in question up there, so not sure how robust the updrafts will be in that region to take advantage of the better low level turning. We’ll definitely want to keep track of that boundary, and monitor for any convective interaction with it as some hi-res data suggests.

Confidence is pretty high that we’ll likely see two waves of convection. The first looks to arrive by late morning and should mainly center along our southern half or two-thirds of the CWA
Looks to be a linear feature surviving from upstream convection, that will likely reinvigorate by mid to late morning. 20/00z MPAS- HT does show some UH tracks with this first wave, and parameters look to be supportive of a threat for some damaging wind gusts along with perhaps some spin up tornadoes. This first wave should push eastward by 2 or 3 PM EDT, setting the stage for destabilization and round 2 by early evening through mid-evening.
Timing on the second wave looks to be in the 5 to 10PM EDT time range where similar hazards will also be in play. However, the second wave may also have more supercell potential, especially with moderate destabilization. Both waves have potential, and there is a chance the late morning to early afternoon wave could be the more impactful of the two, however the more likely scenario is that the evening wave is more concerning. All hazards appear to be in play, especially across southern KY. The severe threat will likely end shortly after sunset across our east with a quieter overnight in store. Will keep some lingering showers in the forecast, but at least the stronger storms will be finished.

In addition to the severe weather threat, we’ll also have to be mindful of the heavy rainfall associated with multiple waves of convection. Looks like a pretty widespread swath of 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall can be expected for many, however pockets of 2 to 3+ inch amounts can’t be ruled out. WPC Slight Risk for excessive rainfall seems reasonable given recent heavy rainfall, and multiple waves coming once again. The progressive nature of the storms should be the limiting factor to more widespread concerns, but do think that some localized instances of flash flooding are worth messaging.

Long Term
(Wednesday – Monday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue May 20 2025

Cold front will be passing through by Wednesday morning, however the upper shortwave trough axis lags back to the west just a bit through the day. Like the idea of keeping some lingering shower chances in as long as the axis hangs back. The most likely areas for a few showers will be across the NE CWA, with completely dry conditions more likely across our SW CWA Temperatures will likely drop off a bit behind the cold front with highs on Wednesday in the upper 60s to mid-70s for most. The same sort of theme continues for Thursday with another shortwave embedded within the parent upper trough over the Great Lakes rotating through. This will likely be enough to spark more isolated to widely scattered showers, especially with low level lapse rates steepening a bit.
Temperatures will even be cooler on Thursday and ranging from the lower 60s NE CWA to lower 70s SW CWA These values are roughly 10-15 degree below normal for this time of year.

Looking for a drier stretch late week into the first part of the weekend as the closed upper low rotates farther east into New England, and our area sits under dry/unremarkable NW flow aloft.
The chilly temperatures will continue into Friday with highs confined to the 60s, and lows in the 40s for most both Friday and Saturday mornings. Temps start to recover by Saturday as upper ridging from the central Plains begins to gain influence into our area. We’ll see mid 60s to low 70s by Saturday, and upper 60s to mid-70s again by Sunday.

We’ll look for the return of shower and storm chances for the end of the weekend and the first part of next week as a surface low moves out of the central Plains toward the mid-Mississippi River Valley. Development looks to occur within the warm sector of this feature, ahead of the trailing cold front. This type of pattern could bring the threat of stronger or severe storms assuming enough instability is able to develop in the warm sector.
Something to watch going forward.

Aviation
Discussion for the 06Z TAFs...
Issued at 103 AM EDT Tue May 20 2025

* Strong to severe storms are possible today into the evening hours. Damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and large hail are possible. Isolated instances of heavy rainfall and flash flooding may also develop.
* Well below normal temperatures are expected late week into the first part of Memorial Day weekend.

Impacts:

- Rounds of Showers and Thunderstorms during this TAF period will result in rapid changes to VFR cigs to MVFR/IFR conditions as storms pass across the TAF sites.

- Wind gusts of 35+ knts possible in storms

- Confidence is high for rounds of storms today.

Discussion:

Convection upstream of the TAF sites is poised to push across toward Central KY as a warm front, ahead of low pressure over the middle Mississippi Valley, lingers near the OH river. The lingering front will act as focus for TSRA's this TAF period.

CI debris blow off was found across Central KY this morning, providing VFR Cigs. HRRR suggests several wave/rounds of showers and storms passing across the area the first arriving toward 09Z-12Z.
This wave will be the weakest and confidence here is lowest.

HRRR suggests much better organization with rounds of TSRA late this morning and again late this afternoon. As these lines quickly move across the TAF sites, SVR Storms will be possible with strong wind gusts and IFR CIGS and visibility as they pass.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...Flood Watch from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today through late tonight for KYZ026>028-039>042-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081- 082.

IN...None.