Sunday, January26, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Deep Creek, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 5:18PM Sunday January 26, 2020 6:29 AM EST (11:29 UTC) Moonrise 8:30AMMoonset 7:05PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 323 Am Est Sun Jan 26 2020
Through 7 am..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft, building to 3 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ600 323 Am Est Sun Jan 26 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure builds in from the west today. A weak disturbance tracks across the area on Monday. High pressure returns for the middle of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Deep Creek, VA
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location: 37.76, -75.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 261127 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 627 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure builds in today. A weak disturbance tracks across the area on Monday before high pressure builds in again for midweek.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 300 AM EST Sunday .

Latest analysis this morning shows a low pressure system over NE and high pressure over the deep south. Locally, a weak surface trough continues to slowly push through the area. This is resulting in stubborn cloud cover that is slow to erode over the VA peninsula over to the eastern shore. Elsewhere, mostly clear skies and near calm winds have allowed temps to drop quickly. Already in the lower 30s west of Richmond, with mid and upper 30s across south central VA and inland NE NC. The cloud cover is holding temps over the peninsula and eastern shore in the lower 40s. Temps out west will hold nearly steady the rest of the morning, while temps over the peninsula and close to the coast will continue to slowly fall as the cloudy cover eventually erodes. Overall low temps this morning will be near 30 west to upper 30s east.

High pressure will move from the deep south over to the SE coast during the day today, with zonal flow aloft. Mostly sunny skies expected for much of the area today, with a bit more cloud cover across the northern third of the area during the afternoon as another weak surface trough passes through. High temps this afternoon in the low to mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 300 AM EST Sunday .

A weak shortwave over the TN valley will cross the area on Monday. A weak disturbance ahead of the shortwave will increase cloud cover and bring a slight chance of rain to mainly southern VA and NE NC. Latest QPF forecasts are still in good agreement that rainfall amounts will be light, on the order of just a few hundredths of an inch. Low temps Monday in the 30s and high temps low to mid 50s.

Rain chances end late Monday as the disturbance exits the area to the east. Drier and slightly cooler weather on Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the Midwest. Low temps upper 20s west to mid 30s SE, and high temps ranging from the mid 40s to around 50.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 320 PM EST Saturday .

A weak shortwave will move through the southern portion of the CWA late Monday night into early Tuesday bringing with it a slight chance of a few scattered rain showers Monday afternoon. High pressure moves in Tuesday and persists through Wednesday evening. Another shortwave moves through on Thursday possibly spinning up a weak coastal low off the SE coast well offshore. Models have come into more agreement that any low pressure forming will be too far offshore to provide any widespread precipitation for the CWA. Have therefore lowered PoPs to <25%. High pressure once again moves into the region Friday and will persist until early Saturday. Next weekend becomes a little more interesting with both the GFS and EURO developing a coastal low off of the Carolina coastline and bringing it up the NE coast Saturday into Sunday. However, we will be lacking any substantially cold air and therefore rain is the most likely precipitation type.

Temperatures will be near seasonal through the period. Lows Tuesday-Thursday nights will range from the mid-upper 20s in the NW to the low-mid 30s in the SE. Lows on Friday and Saturday nights will be slightly warmer with low 30s in the NW and upper 30s to around 40F in the SE. Highs will be in the 40s on Wednesday and will range from the mid-40s in the NW to lower 50s in the SE on Thursday-Saturday.

AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 625 AM EST Sunday .

Clouds over the VA peninsula and the eastern shore have been slow to erode this morning even as drier air continues to push into the area. Forecast soundings at SBY suggest that SCT to BKN clouds may hang on through the afternoon as another weak surface trough moves through the area. Ceilings earlier in the evening dropped briefly to MVFR at PHF and SBY, however they have been VFR (around 5k ft) for the past several hours. Kept all locations VFR through the TAF period, however ceilings at PHF and SBY could briefly drop to MVFR (around 3k ft) at times this morning. Winds today will be W/SW 5-10 kts, and they are expected to be 5 kts or less overnight into early Monday morning.

A weak shortwave will move through during the day on Monday bringing a slight chance of showers and sub-VFR ceilings mainly for ORF/ECG.

MARINE. As of 320 AM EST Sunday .

Low pressure is currently centered well N of the local area across Ontario and the St Lawrence Valley with sfc high pressure over the Gulf coast ridging NE into the Carolinas. W winds 5-10 kt prevail early this morning with seas still 4-5 ft on the coastal waters in 10-11 sec period swell. SCA headlines will remain in effect for the southern zones through 10 am and for the northern zones through 1 pm as seas slowly subside.

Low pressure to our N gradually shifts to the E and moves off to Atlantic Canada Mon/Mon night, forcing a dry cold front through the region Monday night/early Tuesday. Guidance remains in decent agreement showing decent CAA behind the boundary and current forecast is for marginal SCA conditions for the Bay (to 15-20 kts) through late Tuesday morning before the gradient slackens heading into the mid week period. SCAs may be needed for the Bay and it could be close on the coastal waters as well (primarily for seas building back to 4-5 ft).

CLIMATE. Due to a tipping bucket error at SBY ASOS yesterday, precipitation for Sat 1/25 was substituted with data from the RAWS site at Powellville (1.03").

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ650- 652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ656- 658.

SYNOPSIS . CMF/ERI NEAR TERM . CMF SHORT TERM . CMF LONG TERM . RMM AVIATION . CMF MARINE . LKB/RHR CLIMATE . AKQ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 11 mi60 min W 1.9 G 2.9 39°F 46°F1012.8 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 20 mi60 min WSW 2.9 G 4.1 1013.9 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 29 mi54 min SW 3.9 G 3.9 43°F1016.4 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 35 mi36 min Calm G 5.8 40°F 42°F1013.1 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 35 mi60 min WNW 1 G 1.9 42°F 43°F1012.6 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 40 mi66 min W 2.9 G 4.1 41°F 41°F1012.8 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 43 mi66 min W 7 G 8 44°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 46 mi60 min W 8.9 G 9.9 41°F 1013.5 hPa
44072 47 mi40 min N 7.8 G 9.7 40°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 48 mi60 min Calm G 1

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA8 mi35 minno data10.00 miOvercast38°F37°F99%1012.9 hPa
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA20 mi36 minWNW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy37°F33°F86%1012.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFV

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------------Calm------------------------------
1 day ago----------CalmCalm----------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Chesconessex Creek, Schooner Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Chesconessex Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:34 AM EST     1.75 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:46 AM EST     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:30 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:56 PM EST     2.11 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:19 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:05 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:30 PM EST     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.71.51.10.50.1-0.3-0.3-0.10.411.622.121.61.10.50.1-0.2-0.20.10.61.1

Tide / Current Tables for Guard Shore, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Guard Shore
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:54 AM EST     1.96 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:29 AM EST     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:30 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:16 PM EST     2.36 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:18 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:05 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 08:13 PM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.821.81.510.50-0.2-0.20.20.81.52.12.32.321.510.40-0.2-0.10.41

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.