Sunday, September27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Deep Creek, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 6:52PM Sunday September 27, 2020 2:45 AM EDT (06:45 UTC) Moonrise 4:13PMMoonset 1:35AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 147 Am Edt Sun Sep 27 2020
Rest of tonight..NE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. A slight chance of showers with patchy drizzle. Patchy fog.
Sun..N winds 5 kt, becoming S late. Waves 1 foot. Patchy drizzle early in the morning. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of sprinkles in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt late. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..W winds 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 foot. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the morning.
Thu night..SW winds 5 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 foot. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 147 Am Edt Sun Sep 27 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure lifts northeast just off the mid-atlantic coast through this morning. Weak high pressure then settles over the region this afternoon through Monday. Low pressure moves through the local area Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday, with a cold front crossing the waters Wednesday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Deep Creek, VA
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location: 37.76, -75.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 270520 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 120 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure moves off the North Carolina coast. High pressure then builds into the region for Sunday into Monday. A cold front will approach the Mid Atlantic by the middle to end of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. As of 950 PM EDT Saturday .

Latest surface analysis shows ~1024mb sfc high pressure now well offshore off the New England coast. To the south, weak low pressure lingers offshore of the NC coast associated with a shortwave trough aloft crossing the region. Shortwave ridge will follow the trough tonight but residual low level moisture will keep some light rain or drizzle along the coast tonight, with areas of low stratus becoming more widespread late tonight. the NBM . HRRR-TLE and LAMP each consolidating toward showing some patchy dense fog develop on the eastern shore toward morning, so will hit that a bit harder in the grids. Otherwise, mostly cloudy and cool with overnight in the upper 50s/~ 60F NW to the mid 60s SE.

Mainly dry on Sunday but there is a chance for drizzle and light showers primarily east of I-9 as low pressure continues northward offshore. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will allow for a bit more heating than we saw today, highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Clouds keep overnight lows Sunday night on the mild side with mid to upper 60s across the region.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 350 PM EDT Saturday .

Deep long wave trough digs across the central part of the country on Monday with southerly flow in place across the eastern CONUS. Guidance shows an area of light to moderate showers crossing the region ahead of the main trough approaching from the west. Will limit QPF to just a few hundredths with this initial activity. Afternoon high temps will nudge upward into the low 80s. PoPs increase from the west Monday night into Tuesday. Overnight lows mid 60s to low 70s as low level moisture continues to increase with southerly flow.

Light to moderate rainfall moves in for Tuesday as the trough/front approaches the Appalachians. Some support for heavy rainfall on Tuesday with this slow moving system. Pervasive cloud cover and rainfall will hold afternoon highs in the upper 70s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 350 PM EDT Saturday .

A rather potent closed low is forecast to dig southward to near the central Gulf coast Tue night before pivoting newd across the Carolinas and VA Wed-Wed night. Once this system exits around midweek, another strong shortwave trough in nwly flow aloft is then forecast to carve an impressive longwave trough across the ern US through the end of next week. The ECMWF is less progressive in lifting the upper low newd and therefore has a slower solution of kicking this feature out of the area. With a low confidence forecast for midweek, will favor a blend of models/ensembles which has high chc or likely PoPs for our area Tues night-Wed night. Both the EC and GFS will also suggest a period or two of heavy rain during this time. We probably dry out for Thursday before introducing some low end PoPs with the next frontal boundary that may move across the area on Friday ahead of the broad trough. Highs Wed-Thu generally in the 70s. Highs Fri-Sat in the 60s. Remaining mild Tues night with lows only in the upper 50s to upper 60s, but then cooling off through Friday night when lows temps will drop into the mid 40s to mid 50s.

AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 115 AM EDT Sunday .

Widespread IFR/LIFR ceilings this morning at all terminals. The low ceilings along with patchy dense fog will persist through around 14Z, when conditions improving late this morning into the afternoon when VFR/MVFR ceilings are expected. Winds this morning light and variable becoming southerly this afternoon through the remainder of the TAF period.

Outlook . VFR conditions are expected from Sunday night until Tuesday, when a front approaches from the west. Sub-VFR conditions are possible at that time, with another round of rainfall possible.

MARINE. As of 350 PM EDT Saturday .

SCA for ANZ658 will remain in effect until 7 pm for seas up to 5 ft offshore.

Mainly Sub-SCA conditions to prevail through the next several days. E wind this aftn and evening will remain 5-15 kt. Seas will avg 2-4 ft S of Cape Charles (and up to 5 ft off the OBX) and around 2 ft to the N. Waves in the Bay will be 1-2 ft, but up to 2-3 ft at the mouth of the Bay.

Low pressure off the NC coast now will weaken/transition into a trough off the Delmarva coast later tonight into Sun AM, allowing winds to shift to the NE and then to the N to NW at 5-10kt. Later Sunday a light onshore flow develops by aftn as the pres gradient remains weak. Seas will run 2-3 ft.

Southerly winds increase Mon-Tue ahead of the next system, which should then pass through the area Wednesday into Wed night. Still much uncertainty in the models for a high confidence forecast past Tuesday. Best chance for SCA conditions will be Wed into Thursday morning as a potent shortwave passes. A significantly cooler airmass is then expected late next week into next weekend.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . CMF/MRD NEAR TERM . MAM/RHR SHORT TERM . RHR LONG TERM . JDM AVIATION . CMF/MAM MARINE . JDM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 11 mi46 min Calm G 1 70°F 71°F1014.3 hPa (-0.8)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 20 mi46 min Calm G 1 1014.9 hPa (-0.8)
44089 24 mi50 min 69°F4 ft
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 29 mi28 min Calm G 1.9 70°F 70°F1016.9 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 35 mi46 min E 2.9 G 4.1 68°F 70°F1014.5 hPa (-0.8)
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 40 mi46 min WNW 1.9 G 1.9 68°F 67°F1014.5 hPa (-0.8)
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 43 mi46 min NW 4.1 G 5.1 70°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 46 mi46 min NW 6 G 7 68°F
44072 47 mi26 min N 5.8 G 7.8 68°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 48 mi46 min N 1 G 1.9

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA8 mi1.8 hrsN 00.75 miFog/Mist70°F67°F92%1014.9 hPa
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA20 mi52 minNE 610.00 miOvercast70°F69°F97%1014.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFV

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8SE7----CalmSE10SE7--SE5SE7SE10
G15
E5--SE8SE7----SE7SE6SE5Calm----Calm
1 day ago--S5SW4----CalmCalm--N3Calm--CalmCalm--E3E3--E4--E5E4E5E4SE7
2 days ago--W3W4W5W4Calm--SW4Calm------SW4W3SW3SW5CalmCalmS6SW4CalmSW4SW4--

Tide / Current Tables for Chesconessex Creek, Schooner Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Chesconessex Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:43 AM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:31 AM EDT     2.07 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:45 PM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:59 PM EDT     2.38 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.30.90.70.60.81.11.51.8221.91.61.20.90.70.70.81.21.622.32.42.3

Tide / Current Tables for Guard Shore, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Guard Shore
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:26 AM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:51 AM EDT     2.32 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:28 PM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:19 PM EDT     2.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.51.10.70.50.50.81.31.82.22.32.21.91.51.10.70.50.50.81.41.92.42.72.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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