Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Muir Beach, CA

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Muir Beach, CA

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Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA

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FXUS66 KMTR 290049 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 549 PM PDT Sun May 28 2023

New AVIATION, MARINE

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 1256 PM PDT Sun May 28 2023

A cutoff low continues to drift off the coast of California, helping to bring cooler than normal temps to the region that will persist through the upcoming week. Low clouds/stratus will continue to be present in coastal areas, with clearing expected in the late afternoons, before a return into the evening.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1256 PM PDT Sun May 28 2023

Radar imagery currently shows rainshowers off of the Marin county coastline as the center of the cutoff low spins just off the San Mateo coast. Light rain, about 0.01" thus far, has been reported in a few northern coastal and Bay Area locations as a result.
That being said, not expecting much more than a few hundredths in these localized spots, and for any chances of light rainfall to diminish by the evening.

For the far northern portions of Sonoma and Napa counties, there does exist a slight (15%) chance of thunderstorms in the late afternoon to early evening, so if thunder roars, go indoors.
Localized heavier rainfall, lightning, and small hail are risks associated with these thunderstorms. The slight chances for thunderstorms in this area look to dissipate into the night as surface heating diminishes with sunset.

Aside from the light rainfall seen today, persistence continues to be the name of the game. Continued troughing will keep temperatures on the cool side the next few days, with highs in the mid 60s for Bays, and closer to mid 70s for more interior locations. Widespread low clouds and stratus will continue to intrude over the bays and coastal zones potentially bringing drizzle, then clearing in the late afternoons.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1256 PM PDT Sun May 28 2023

Over the next few days, the cutoff low will continue to meander down and just off of the coast, without any steering mechanism, before slowly exiting to the southwest towards mid to late week.
Ridging looks to build in beyond this, bringing slightly warmer temperatures than what has been seen lately. However, longer term model guidance suggests continued troughing and cooler than normal temperatures to persist through the early portions of June.
Stay tuned for updates.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 PM PDT Sun May 28 2023

The center of the closed upper level low pressure system is located approx 70 miles west of San Francisco. Clouds are a mix of stratiform and convective and it's mainly IFR-MVFR along the coast, VFR elsewhere.
Forecast areal cloud coverage and thicknesses varying alot tonight to predawn Monday morning subsequently varying, in many locations slowing outgoing radiative cooling to space and further saturation and low cloud development. On Memorial Day, clouds /IFR-MVFR/ lifting to VFR inland, last to clear along the coast where MVFR continues to late morning or early afternoon. Low clouds /IFR-MVFR/ moving inland Monday night and Tuesday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...SCT vs BKN ceiling /MVFR/ and west wind near 15 knots early evening, MVFR prevailing from 02z, IFR from 09z tonight. IFR ceiling Memorial Day lifting to VFR late morning, west wind increasing to near 15 knots in the afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay...MVFR ceilings lowering to IFR this evening, IFR tonight and Memorial Day morning. Patchy light drizzle developing tonight. IFR lifting to MVFR on Memorial Day by late morning or early afternoon.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 449 PM PDT Sun May 28 2023

Moderate northwest winds continue into Memorial Day with the strongest winds over the northern outer waters. Winds becoming southerly Monday, and back to northwesterly by Tuesday afternoon.
Breezy to gusty westerly winds are also expected across the San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, Suisun Bay, and the Delta each afternoon. Longer period background southerly swell continues through late next week.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ570.

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