Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ozora, MO

SHORT TERM
(Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 248 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Early morning water vapor imagery shows a deepening trough digging into the Plains, with a moisture plume extending from the Gulf northward into the Northern Plains. The trough's surface reflection can be seen in observations traversing the Oklahoma-Kansas state line. Robust warm air advection ahead of the low, indicated by the wing of precipitation moving across the area and driven by a strengthening low-level jet, will continue to overspread the CWA as the low pushes east-northeastward. Recent ACARS profiles upwind out of KSGF show winds peaking at 50-55 kts between 900 and 850 mb, and this is expected to translate eastward across our region. This will continue to feed precipitation chances through the morning into the afternoon across the entire CWA, with winds also picking up thanks to mixing of the low-level jet. Wind gusts will occasionally peak around 40 mph through the day, particularly across southeastern Missouri and southwestern Illinois this afternoon when the core of the jet will pass overhead.

Back to the precipitation - as expected, heavier precipitation rates, dynamic cooling, and wetbulbing have brought temperatures north of the I-70 corridor to or below freezing where precipitation occurs, with most locations here reporting snow. Thanks to the strong warm air advection, portions of central Missouri are seeing quick fluctuations in precipitation type as the aforementioned processes and the advection battle. As the low and low-level jet draw closer through the day, the warm air advection will win out, with temperatures slowly warming above freezing from southwest to northeast, changing snow over to rain as it does so. This changeover will gradually occur later this morning through this afternoon, with portions of northeastern Missouri and west-central Illinois being the last to changeover, if they do so at all.

For this portion of the area, the Winter Storm Warning remains on track. Here, accumulations of 5"+ are expected (90% or higher chance based on the 00z HRRR). A row of counties southward in the Winter Weather Advisory, a tight gradient is expected, and there is a low chance that warning-criteria accumulation could sneak into northern portions of these counties. Within the entire advisory area, confidence in amounts is lower thanks to the effects of the warm air advection, fracturing of ice crystals thanks to strong winds, and compaction. On the low end, amounts within the advisory may range from 1-3" or up to 5" on the high end. Regardless, confidence in impacts to travel within the advisory are high (80% chance), as snowfall rates now through approximately 8am may exceed 1" an hour at times. This will lead to quick degradation of road conditions, especially those untreated.

As the low-level jet pivots eastward, the more persistent precipitation will come to an end west to east through the afternoon and early evening. The low's attendant cold front will quickly swing through the CWA this evening, marking the end of precipitation chances across the area. There may be a brief hit of snow or rain- snow mix with this FROPA, but confidence is low that it will be impactful. This FROPA signals the entry of an Arctic air mass into the Midwest, with temperatures falling quickly late this evening and tonight. Lows look to bottom out in the mid-20s for most locations, with portions of northeastern Missouri and west- central Illinois seeing values in the teens. For areas that maintain snowpack into the evening, forecasted low temperatures may need to be bumped down a degree or two.

This Arctic air mass will only move further into the region tomorrow thanks to deep northwesterly flow in the wake of the departing upper- level trough. Afternoon temperatures will struggle to break freezing for a majority of locations, with Reynolds, Iron, and Madison counties in MO having the greatest chance (50-60% per the NBM) of reaching or exceeding 32 degrees. The current forecast (mid-20s) is nearly 20 degrees below climatological normals. This sets the stage for an even colder night Sunday, with teens forecasted for lows across the entire CWA

Elmore

LONG TERM
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 248 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Early Monday, guidance consensus is that another upper-level trough will be quickly making its way through the central CONUS; its surface low deepening along the Gulf Coast and moving northeastward.
While this would typically place our CWA well north of any impacts, frontogenical forcing paired the lift via the trough axis and a developing upper-level jet streak will be enough to force light snowfall across the CWA Monday into Monday night. Due to ongoing impacts from our current winter storm, an in-depth examination of this event will have to wait. Confidence is high that totals will be relatively light, with NBM probabilities of reaching and exceeding 1" at 40-60% area-wide but failing to rise above 30% for 2" for much of the area. Still, this light snowfall could still be impactful if it coincides with the evening rush hour, particularly for the St.
Louis metro area. We will be able to better hone in on this system with this afternoon's or tonight's forecast package.

Beyond Monday's system, a majority (80%+) of global ensemble members are dry through the end of the workweek. A dry FROPA late Wednesday/early Thursday and persistent troughing just north of the region will reinforce our below normal temperatures, with ensemble means supporting that most locations will fail to get out of the 30s through the upcoming week. The coldest portion of the period looks to be in the wake of the cold front Wednesday night and Thursday, though ensemble spread leads to low confidence in exact values.

Elmore

AVIATION
(For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Precipitation will continue across the area this afternoon, with snow changing to rain from south to north through 21-00Z. Snow may mix with sleet at times as the transition zone moves north. Flight conditions will largely remain IFR in the snow, and will improve to MVFR once precip transitions to rain. A cold front will move through the area this evening which will bring any lingering precipitation end. Gusty south-southeast winds this afternoon will turn to the west-northwest behind the cold front and remain strong and gusty into Sunday morning.

Carney

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for Knox MO- Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO.

Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for Audrain MO-Franklin MO-Jefferson MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Shelby MO- Warren MO.

IL...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for Adams IL- Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL- Montgomery IL-Pike IL.

Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for Bond IL- Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.