Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ozora, MO

SHORT TERM
(Through Friday Night)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Cool high pressure has settled into our area this morning and will gradually drift southeast today. This has brought a fresh cool, dry air mass into the region. After a very cool start this morning, some morning to midday sun will allow for a warm up back into the upper 60s to low 70s. But clouds begin to spill in from the northwest later in the day, preventing a greater rebound in temperatures.

Broad, low amplitude ridging stretches across the Rockies today with a trough digging in the western US and a somewhat stationary trough over the northern Great Lakes and Northeast. Our area will be under northwest upper level flow on the downstream side of this weak ridge. Low level moisture return is limited to the western Great Plains where shower and thunderstorm activity commences today as the first of many subtle impulses rounds the top of the ridge. These showers and thunderstorms will push southeast on the mid and upper level flow and may bring some showers and storms into our area as early as this evening, though the greatest chances will be during the overnight to early morning hours. Guidance is in generally good agreement that the bulk of this activity tracks southeast through the Ozarks, so precipitation chances in our area are concentrated in our southwestern zones along the periphery of the expected rainfall axis. With dry low levels and limited moisture return aloft, rainfall amounts in our area will be similarly limited. A swath of 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected further southwest in the Ozarks closer to a developing frontal boundary with better access to moisture and instability.

Kimble

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Friday night's round of showers and storms continues to push southeast into Arkansas on Saturday, though clouds and perhaps some light rain linger into our area through the day. These clouds help to keep the temperature cool through the day, mainly in the 60s.
Where some sun is able to break through (perhaps in northern areas)
a rise into the low 70s is possible.

This is in fact the trend for the next several days extending right through the weekend and into the first half of next week. With dry low level air being reinforced by northeast winds around surface high pressure over the Great Lakes, any periods of rain will tend to cool temperatures down toward the dewpoint (low to mid 50s) while breaks in the clouds will lead to greater warm ups perhaps as warm as the low 70s. NBM interquartile range for high temperatures each day through Tuesday is in the 6 to 8 degree range which is fairly high for this range of the forecast. The uncertainty is almost entirely due to cloud cover, something that is not very well predicted generally. The late May sun is just as strong as a late July sun, so some thinning or breaking up of the clouds would easily lead to a 10 to 15 degree rise in temperatures. But if rain and low clouds are more persistent then the temperature may stay in the 50s near the record cool high temperatures (see Climate section below).
Generally speaking the axis of rain and clouds is more favored in southwestern sections, so cooler high temperatures are forecast there. Northwestern areas are drier overall with greater chances of seeing some sun so high temperatures are a few degrees warmer there.

As far as rain goes, each day a new round of showers and storms develops over the Plains where the low level moisture continues to be pumped northward. These showers and storms then move east or southeast on the mid level flow during the overnight and early morning hours bringing another swath of 1 to 2 inches of rain in the core of the rain axis. Guidance continues to favor the Ozarks of southwest Missouri for each of these rounds of rainfall Saturday night and Sunday night, with the peripheral areas of rain affecting primarily our southwestern zones. However each subsequent round has more uncertainty on its location than the last, so precipitation chances generally broaden out with time. Overall amounts will vary by location, with areas to the north and east seeing the least rainfall overall. But even in southwestern areas where chances of steadier rainfall are higher, the chances of getting into the heavier rainfall rates which could pose a threat for flash flooding remain very low. However some rises on area rivers are likely as a result of several rounds of rain over the coming days.

As we move toward early next week the western trough digs and broadens over the Southwest US, with a southwesterly mid level flow developing over the southern Rockies. This promotes more organized lee troughing over West Texas with the flow of low level moisture northward to the east of this trough focusing convection over Oklahoma and Texas. This shifts the axis of heavier downstream rainfall further south with time. However, the persistent trough over the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest will eventually begin to interact with the broadening Western trough. Guidance varies on when and how this occurs, but when it does it will likely eject a more organized shortwave trough and associated area of surface low pressure northeast through the Plains and Mid Mississippi Valley bringing a more widespread period of showers and perhaps some thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday. Low level flow remains east or northeast ensuring that the moisture triggering this rain will be elevated and somewhat limited overall. So rainfall amounts when this occurs are unlikely to be excessive but will contribute to the cumulative total from the several day period.

Guidance consensus further breaks down as we move into the middle of next week. The primary source of uncertainty is on how that trough over the Upper Midwest interacts with waves ejecting from the western US trough. If this interaction results in a persistent closed low over the Northern Plains then the westerly flow south of it over our area could result in additional rounds of rainfall through the week. However, if it pulls further east into the broader Northeastern US trough then a subsident northwest flow in its wake would keep things drier for our area. While NBM currently drops precipitation chances below mentionable levels after Tuesday, I wouldn't be too quick to proclaim this as the end of our wet weather. Looking at the long range ensemble guidance, the 24-hr probability of measurable rainfall remains 30 to 60 percent all the way through the end of next week. It's possible that timing uncertainty within the wetter scenarios is contributing to lower 12- hr PoP values in the NBM forecast. Similarly while the NBM temperature forecast gradually warms back into the 70s, there remains the potential for cooler weather through the end of the week if the wetter scenarios unfold.

Kimble

AVIATION
(For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Very light winds expected today as high pressure moves through the region. Initially clear sky gives way to increasing mid and high level clouds through the day. An area of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm is expected to track across central to southeast Missouri overnight, though most TAF locations are unlikely to be affected by this. COU and JEF have the best chance of being impacted with potentially MVFR conditions early Saturday morning.

Kimble/Maples

CLIMATE
Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Record cool daily high temperatures for the upcoming Memorial Day holiday weekend:

SAT 5/25 SUN 5/26 MON 5/27 St. Louis (KSTL) 58F (1924) 59F (2001) 56F (1961) Columbia (KCOU) 56F (1924) 58F (2001) 57F (1992)
Quincy (KUIN) 55F (2001) 54F (1992) 56F (1997)



LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.