Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for San Francisco, CA

UPDATE
Issued at 837 PM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Broadly speaking, the forecast remains on track this evening. In the short term, the biggest question mark is how the marine layer stratus will develop overnight. The stratus has pulled well off the coast. This means new clouds will have to reform within the marine layer, rather than roll-in as we typically see this time of year. As a result, the confidence in the cloud cover forecast is fairly low, even over the next 6-12 hours. Most model guidance brings stratus back to the coast with pockets of overcast skies along the adjacent valleys. These models are not initializing the current clear skies well, however, and there will likely be less cloud coverage, or at least a shorter duration.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 115 PM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Quiet conditions persist as a trough pattern set up off the West Coast provides a deep onshore flow regime. This will keep temps around seasonal normals - slightly below normal along the coast.
Otherwise, dry conditions continue at higher elevations (generally above about 2,000 feet) where humidity recovery is poor and grasses are very dry.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 115 PM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Out persistent trough pattern eventually gets kicked out by a progressive shortwave trough moving into the West Coast. Not much worth noting regarding our weather in this case besides the potential for some drizzle along coastal areas early next week.
Behind the shortwave, we do see a subtle warm up on tap through Wednesday, but again nothing worth getting bent out of shape for.
We'll basically see high temps around normal or a few degrees above. The main hazard over the next week will be dry conditions inland leading to elevated grass fire danger, especially above 2,000 feet where humidity recovery is poor.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 954 PM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

VFR conditions have persisted through the evening, though patches of stratus are starting to form along the coast. In the big picture, the region and coastal waters are much more clear than you would expect under onshore flow in June. While the marine layer is in place, its mostly cloud free due to low moisture in the atmosphere.
This makes the aviation forecast tricky as we must wait for stratus pockets to form, rather than roll in off the coast. Most model guidance is insisting that will happen, but the exact location and duration is hard to pin down. Some terminals will likely stay VFR through the night, and those that do develop ceilings will likely have a shorter duration than normal.

Vicinity of SFO...Moderate onshore winds are easing overnight. The chance for ceilings at SFO remains similar to a coin-flip, though the fact that the area is still mostly clear certainly makes it seem more optimistic that VFR conditions could last through the morning.
The 06Z TAFs are keeping MVFR ceilings at OAK however, as the HRRR remains more aggressive in the East Bay. If any ceilings do form they will clear quickly Sunday morning before moderate onshore winds develop Sunday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Low clouds have started to form along the Monterey Peninsula, and will likely reach the terminal shortly with NW winds helping to advect and grow the small cloud deck. SNS will also likely develop ceilings, though the duration will be limited to a few hours around sunrise. The ceiling height should settle in the IFR category, as the marine layer is more shallow over the southern terminals due to higher pressure.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 837 PM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

The gradient between subtropical high pressure in the East Pacific and lower pressure over the western US will continue to support a fresh to strong NW breeze through mid-week with moderate seas. As the gradient tightens late week, winds will increase to a near gale force NW breeze, causing rough seas to build.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 556 PM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

No real notable changes to the ongoing forecast fire weather wise.
Still highlighting elevated fire weather conditions across the interior Central Coast. While not in our forecast area, a decent veg fire developed and spread quickly to over 1k acres in SLO.
This could have easily happened in San Benito or Monterey counties.

Observations over the last 24 hour and predicted weather continue to show marine layer influence keeping fire weather conditions in check for lower elevations and coastal areas. However, about roughly 2k feet and farther inland conditions remain mild and dry both day and night. On top of that is onshore flow leading to breezy conditions each afternoon. Some of the winds are being enhanced by topography leading to gustier flow in the valleys, gaps, passes with 20-35 mph gusts.

Simply put, if you're recreating outdoors, be one less spark in these elevated fire weather conditions.

MM

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.