Warsaw, VA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Warsaw, VA

April 14, 2024 3:57 AM EDT (07:57 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:33 AM   Sunset 7:45 PM
Moonrise 9:48 AM   Moonset 12:43 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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ANZ635 Rappahannock River From Urbanna To Windmill Point- 310 Am Edt Sun Apr 14 2024

.small craft advisory in effect from 1 pm edt this afternoon through this evening - .

Through 7 am - W winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop.

Today - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 1 foot, increasing to around 2 ft.

Tonight - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

Mon - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.

Mon night - E winds 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop, increasing to around 1 foot after midnight. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.

Tue - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.

Tue night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.

Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.

Wed night - SW winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers.

Thu - W winds 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.

Thu night - NE winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 310 Am Edt Sun Apr 14 2024

Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure gradually shifts off the southeast coast early this week. A weakening cold front drops across the area late Monday into Monday evening, before shifting back north of the region as a warm front on Tuesday. Another, stronger cold front crosses the region by late week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warsaw, VA
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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 140727 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 327 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure slides off the southeast coast today, bringing dry and very warm conditions to the local area, along with gusty winds. A backdoor cold front drops through later Monday with showers and thunderstorms possible for most of the area. This front is forecast to lift back north as a warm front Tuesday into Tuesday night. A stronger cold front crosses the area late in the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...

Morning analysis shows high pressure centered from the central Gulf coast SE to the Florida Peninsula. Aloft, NW/WNW flow is noted over the Mid-Atlantic with a ridge to our W and a trough offshore.
Skies are clear with generally light winds. Temps have fallen into the 40s for most of the area (exception being right at the water when temps remain in the 50s). A disturbance aloft and associated sfc cold front will drop S through the Great Lakes and into the Mason-Dixon vicinity this afternoon. This is likely to lead to a subtle increase in high clouds, along with gusty SW winds (rain/thunderstorms remain well N/NW of the FA). Wind gusts of 20-30 mph are likely for most of the area this afternoon with 30-35 mph gusts possible over the MD Eastern Shore. While it won't be as dry as yesterday, dew points still drop into the lower 40s and perhaps upper 30s across SE VA and NE NC. Combined w/ temps in the upper 70s and lower 80s, RHs fall to 20-30%. This could lead to elevated fire wx given the dry day yesterday (see fire wx discussion below). For temps, highs later this aftn peak in the lower 80s for most of VA and NC, with mid- upper 70s on the eastern shore. These values are a good bit above NBM and closer to the 75th-90th percentiles.
Winds remain a tad gusty heading into tonight, keeping lows warmer and in the upper 50s- low 60s. A rogue shower or sprinkle could reach some of the far nrn counties tonight as the front drops closer to the area, but expecting the vast majority to stay dry.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...

The front continues to sag southward on Monday. At this time, the frontal passage looks to coincide with the afternoon/evening peak heating. Thus, showers and thunderstorms are possible across the area. Soundings show generally unidirectional WNW-NW flow across the area and 30-35 kts of bulk shear. Sfc temps warming into the low-mid 80s (upper 70s ern shore) and dew points in the mid-upper 50s suggest there is likely to be some sfc-based instability.
Additionally, soundings also show rather steep mid-level lapse rates of 7.5-8 C/km atop a well-mixed/inverted-V low-level sounding profile. HRRR mean SBCAPE ranges from 500-1500 J/kg (highest srn VA and nrn NC), though instability is lower on the ern shore given cooler temps. All of this suggests there could be some strong-severe storms and SPC has introduced a marginal risk of severe wx for most of our CWA A threat of hail and strong wind gusts are possible as storms initially develop over the Piedmont in the afternoon.
CAMs overwhelmingly agree that any initial discrete storms grow upscale into clusters or a line as storms become more outflow dominant in the later aftn/evening with damaging wind gusts becoming favored. Interesting (and rather impressive) to note that there is a decent signal among the CAMs (HRRR/ARW)
explicitly showing gusts approaching severe criteria. The tornado threat is very low given straight hodographs, low 0-1km SRH, and LCLs >1500 m. PoPs were increased into the 30-40% range for most of the area (20% MD Eastern Shore) and may need to be increased further in forthcoming fcst packages. Storms should be clear of the area by 6z/2 AM Tuesday as the front drops S of the FA and winds turn to the NNE. Overnight lows range from the lower 50s N to mid/upper 50s S.

Heading into Tuesday, a rather strong sfc cyclone will eject from the lee of Rockies into the Midwest and deepen below 990 mb. This will work to slowly push the front from Monday back N as a warm front. There will be a larger gradient is highs Tue as the front initially struggles to move N. Highs in the lower 80s are forecast across the SW and in interior NE NC. For the Piedmont and those W of the Chesapeake Bay, highs in the upper 70s to around 80 are expected. Onshore flow along the coast will keep those near the water in the upper 60s-low 70s. It also becomes partly- mostly cloudy by the afternoon with a thick mid-high cloud deck streaming in from the W. A few showers are again possible near the front (mainly S and W of I-64), though the thunderstorm potential is highly dependent on if any instability can creep N.
Most of guidance keeps the appreciable CAPE just SW of our area. Lows Tue night in the 50s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...

Low pressure continues to lift ENE through the upper Midwest Wednesday into Thursday. A cold front will also extend S/SW into the southern states. There will tend to be more clouds Wednesday, though precip chances will be low w/ little forcing (some slight chc PoPs will remain over the far N closer to the boundary). Highs in the mid 70s NE, upper 70s for most of VA, and lower 80s far SE VA and NE NC. Thursday looks to be the warmest day of the extended period with highs in the 80s for most of the area (70s across the NE), despite a weak cold front moving through during the day. Another (stronger) cold front moves toward the area later Friday into Saturday with a chance for showers and possibly thunderstorms. PoPs remain on the low side as most guidance continues to show the front losing most of its moisture E of the Appalachians. Temps Friday continue to trend cooler with 70s for most of the area and perhaps in the 60s on the ern shore. Overnight temps will remain on the mild side and in the 60s Wed night and 50s Thu and Fri night. Temps trend cooler and below normal behind the front, with highs Sat in the 60s to around 70F with lows into the 40s Sat night.
Potentially even cooler Sunday.

AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 145 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR prevails through the 14/06z period. Light winds early this morning under a clear sky. SW winds become gusty yet again Sun aftn to 15-20 kt with gusts to 20-30 kt (highest SBY). Mainly SKC as well with just some higher clouds filtering in later this afternoon into the evening. Southwesterly LLWS is possible at the terminals after 00z Mon, with the best confidence of this at SBY (where it has been included in the TAF).

Outlook: Dry/VFR tonight through early Monday. W winds Monday shift to the NE Monday night. SCT showers/storms possible Mon aftn/evening (best chance RIC/ORF/PHF/ECG) which could produce heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts. There is a lower chance of showers/storms Tue aftn/Tue night. Isolated showers persist into Wed, though not expecting flight restrictions.

MARINE
As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...

Winds are light out of the west across the marine area early this morning with a ridge of high pressure overhead. The high shifts to our SE today, allowing the pressure gradient to tighten...which will result in an increase in SW winds later today. Sub-SCA winds continue this morning before speeds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the Ches Bay and likely into the adjacent rivers this afternoon. Have issued SCAs for the bay/rivers starting at 1 PM...and local wind probs remain >80% for 6-12 hours this afternoon into the early overnight period. Winds also increase on the ocean (especially N), and a period of 25+ kt gusts is possible this evening-tonight. Seas are also forecast to build back to 4-5 ft for the coastal waters north of Parramore Island this evening into early Monday morning (while remaining 3-4 ft farther south). Have also issued SCA headlines for these northern two ocean zones as well. SCA headlines run until 7 PM for the upper rivers, 1 AM for the Lower James/middle bay, and 4 AM for the Lower Bay/nrn coastal waters.

Winds shift to the W and decrease to 10 kt Monday morning as a weakening cold front approaches. That front is progged to drop through the area this evening-tonight, with winds turning to the NE and then to the E-SE on Tuesday (staying sub-SCA through this timeframe given that it is a weakening front). Conditions will generally remain sub-SCA for the rest of the week.

FIRE WEATHER
As of 315 AM EDT Sunday...

Given the significant drying that occurred across the area yesterday, fire wx concerns are possible this afternoon with minimum relative humidities dropping to 20-30% and wind gusts increasing to 25-30 mph (35 mph MD Eastern Shore). Will continue to stress that dew pts from models tend to be too high (sometimes significantly) this time of year in decent mixing situations. Will be coordinating with state officials later this morning to determine the potential need for an IFD statement.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630-631-638.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ632-634.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>637.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 17 mi57 min WSW 1.9G2.9 52°F 59°F30.02
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 23 mi57 min SW 4.1G5.1
44042 - Potomac, MD 24 mi51 min WSW 1.9G1.9 52°F 55°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 28 mi87 min WSW 1.9 43°F 30.0439°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 29 mi51 min SW 7.8G7.8 53°F 56°F1 ft
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 37 mi57 min 0G1 51°F 55°F30.01
NCDV2 39 mi75 min W 1.9G2.9 51°F 58°F30.00
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 41 mi57 min W 5.1G6 30.07
44041 - Jamestown, VA 42 mi51 min NE 1.9G3.9 51°F 61°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 42 mi57 min 0G0 52°F 58°F30.04
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 43 mi57 min S 6G8 58°F 30.03
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 44 mi57 min WSW 4.1G5.1 58°F 60°F30.02


Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KXSA TAPPAHANNOCKESSEX COUNTY,VA 11 sm22 mincalm10 smClear37°F37°F100%30.05
KFYJ MIDDLE PENINSULA RGNL,VA 21 sm22 mincalm10 smClear37°F37°F100%30.06
Link to 5 minute data for KXSA


Wind History from XSA
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Bowlers Rock, Rappahannock River, Virginia
   
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Bowlers Rock
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Sun -- 12:01 AM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:03 AM EDT     1.95 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:47 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:04 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:29 PM EDT     1.56 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Bowlers Rock, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet
12
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0.1
1
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0.6
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1
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1.5
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1.8
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1.9
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1.9
8
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1.6
9
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1.3
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0.9
11
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0.6
12
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0.3
1
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0.6
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5
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1.4
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1.1
10
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0.8
11
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0.5



Tide / Current for Wares Wharf, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Wares Wharf
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Sun -- 12:09 AM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:12 AM EDT     1.95 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:47 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:12 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:38 PM EDT     1.56 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Wares Wharf, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet
12
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0.5
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1.4
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1.8
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1.9
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1.9
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1.7
9
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1.4
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1
11
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0.6
12
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0.4
1
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0.6
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0.9
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1.3
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1.5
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1.6
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1.4
9
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1.2
10
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0.9
11
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0.6




Weather Map
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Wakefield, VA,



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