Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Warsaw, VA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Widespread showers continue early this morning then taper off later today; rain lingers into this evening in the southeast.

2) Mainly dry with just isolated late day showers/storms Sunday/Monday, with higher rain chances Tuesday into Wednesday; strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday.

DISCUSSION
As of 310 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread showers continue early this morning then taper off later today; rain lingers into this evening in the southeast.

Overrunning moisture to the north of developing weak low pressure has brought showers to much of the area early this morning. Latest radar shows widespread rain, mostly light, along and east of the I- 95 with scattered showers elsewhere. There are some pockets of moderate rainfall which are mostly in SE VA and NE NC. Showers will continue across most of the area through the early morning hours.
The UL trough over the east coast will slide offshore later this morning as sfc high pressure tries to move in from the NW. This will usher in drier air and limit most of the rain to the SE closer to the area of low pressure. Showers could potentially linger in the far southeast into the evening hours depending on when the low and the front it sits on finally get kicked offshore. Dry conditions are then expected overnight. Cooler temperatures continue today with highs around 80 along and north of I-64 and in the mid to upper 70s south.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry with just isolated late day showers/storms Sunday/Monday, with higher rain chances Tuesday into Wednesday; strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday.

Near-average temperatures return Sunday through next week; highs will be in the upper 80s and low 90s. A UL trough axis sets up just offshore for most of the week which will put the local forecast area under NW flow. Multiple shortwaves coming down the trough and a cold front will lead to an overall unsettled pattern for much of the week. Sunday/Sunday night should be mostly dry with the exception of isolated/widely scattered evening storms over the piedmont. Models have trended stormier for Monday afternoon/evening, so now have chance PoPs for most of the FA. Being under NW flow, there is certainly the possibility of a few stronger storms Monday. However, the main show still looks to be the cold front Tues. With the strength of trough, and even a potential sfc low <1000mb, there will be the potential for severe weather, especially if the timing lines up with the greatest instability. The 00z ECMWF has a very interesting idea for Tues into Wed with the front's parent low down to 995mb stacked under a closed UL low that dips as far south as PA.
That would be rather anomalous for July and the ECMWF is the only global model anywhere near that extreme. Will be interested to see how the models trend going forward for sure. The SPC still has the FA highlighted in the extended severe outlook.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 650 AM EDT Saturday...

Showers have overspread the area once again bringing impacts to all the terminals. Rain rates are mostly light, though a there have been a few pockets of moderate rain. Still anticipating that CIGs will drop (except at SBY) this morning as weak low pressure develops along the coast of NC, though they have been slower to drop than previously anticipated. Mainly MVFR, but IFR could impact ECG and potentially ORF between ~12-16z.
Conditions improve this afternoon and evening. Rain tapers off for most terminals by mid morning, but will linger in the southeast as late as 03z Sun. VFR conditions are expected to return to all terminals by early Sun morning.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions returning for Sunday. Isolated to widely scattered late aftn/evening evening showers/storms are possible Monday, with a higher chance for storms Tuesday aftn/evening with the next front approaching the region from the NNW.

MARINE
As of 310 AM EDT Saturday...

- Sub-advisory conditions are expected to prevail in onshore flow through the weekend.

- Another front approaches on Tuesday, which could bring a period of low-end SCAs with SW winds.

A frontal boundary remains stalled south of the area early this morning with ENE winds of 10-15 kt and 3-4 ft seas. ENE winds continue to average 10-15 kt over the SE VA/NE NC coastal waters today while decreasing to 5-10 kt north. A weak area of low pressure is forecast to form along the front and track offshore late today- tonight. Still watching the potential for a brief surge of 15-20 kt winds across the southern coastal waters from mid morning-midday.
However, even if it does occur, not expecting it to last long enough for seas to reach 5 ft. Local wind probs only show a 20-40% chance of 18 kt winds over the ocean south of Cape Henry from roughly 7-11 AM. Winds diminish to 5-10 kt this evening before shifting to the NE then N and increasing back to 10-15 kt by sunrise Sunday morning as the low deepens well offshore. SCA conditions appear unlikely late tonight but will continue to monitor. Generally benign conditions are forecast on Monday. The gradient is expected to tighten on Tuesday ahead of the next front. S and SW winds increase to 15-20 kt in the Ches Bay and 20-25 kt offshore. A few strong storms are possible Monday evening with a better chance Tuesday afternoon and evening with gusty winds the primary threat.

There is a Moderate rip risk across the southern beaches today, with a low rip risk is forecast for all beaches on Sunday but will need to watch the track and intensity of the aforementioned weak low. The low rip risk continues on Monday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.