Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Warsaw, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1035 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Hotter and slightly more humid today.

Upper-level ridging is expanding across the southern and eastern CONUS this morning as a trough axis slides further offshore. Surface high pressure is centered just southeast of the region, though it extends well NW into the Mid-Atlantic and Appalachia region. Visible satellite imagery shows generally sunny skies, with an area of cirrus streaming southward from the Great Lakes in association with a decaying MCS. Temperatures are increasing very quickly this morning into the lower-mid 80s as of 1030 AM and high temperatures in the lower 90s are expected for most of the area today (upper 80s at the immediate coast). Dew points during peak heating will likely mix out some again this afternoon with values in the lower-mid 60s. While this T/Td combination will yield slightly muggier conditions compared to yesterday, heat indices will only be a degree or two higher than the ambient air temp. In this respect, no heat headlines are in effect for today.

Slightly warmer tonight given light southerly flow and modest warm advection. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 305 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Dry weather continues with increasing heat and humidity.

By Sunday the upper level ridge will be over the Mid Atlantic with the with the ridge axis all the way up into northern Canada. While, at the surface the high pressure will off the coast continuing to feed in moist and hot air. Short range models as well as globals continue to show 18 to 22C degree temperatures at 850mb. This will help support temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 90s inland and lower 90s along the coast. In addition, short range models have also hinted on dew points mixing out through the day. Dew points during peak heating are forecasted the in the upper 60s inland and lower 70s along the coast. The mix of high temperatures and dew points will still cause heat index values to be in the lower 100s but less than 105. As of this forecast update these heat index values are below heat advisory criteria for Sunday. However, it will still be hot and humid. Night time lows Sunday will be uncomfortable as temperatures will be in the lower 70s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 305 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Confidence continues to rise for the potential for an early Summer prolonged heat wave.

The latest ensemble guidance continues to show ~600dam ridge over the Mid-Atlantic starting Monday and lasting through much of the week. Monday and Tuesday some places could potentially see their first 100 degree day or days of summer. Ensemble guidance continues to show 20-23C at 850mb which would be conducive to hot temperatures at the surface. With the high pressure continuing to sit off the east coast moist air will continue to advect. However, the question remains of mixing. Dew points have been nudged down from the previous NBM. This is due to the NBM not typically accounting for mixing through the day. Dew points as of this update are expected to be in the upper 60s and lower 70s. This will make heat index values to be between 105 and 110 which is heat advisory criteria. There still could be potential where some isolated locations could see heat index values above 110. Will also note that some of the global models continue to hint on potential convection across the far western portion of the CWA With the recent trends in the models a slight chance of Pops have been added to the far western portion of the CWA for Tuesday. As the weak continues into Wednesday through Friday, the ridge will weaken slightly, however, the heat and humidity will continue to linger. There is the potential of heat products lasting through the end of the week but trends will continue to be monitored. Also the potential of showers and thunderstorms increase with a low chance of PoPs late in the week.

Looking back at climate data, Richmond has only recorded 3 or more days in row of 100+ degree high temperatures 13 times throughout the entire climate record dating back to 1871. If this forecast holds, there is a chance that this heat wave will add a 14th time to that list if RIC hits 100F Monday-Wednesday. Also, since 1943 RIC has only hit heat index values at or above 110 six times in the month of June.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...

High pressure remains centered offshore today with FEW-SCT CU (5000-6000 ft CIGs ) this afternoon. CU dissipate this evening inland with lingering cloud cover possible at ECG/ORF through tonight. A few afternoon CU will again be possible Sun afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions continue with dry conditions. Winds remain S/SE 5-10 kt this afternoon, becoming S ~5 kt tonight. Winds become SW 5-10 kt Sun afternoon.

Dry and VFR conditions are expected to prevail Sun night through the middle of next week as strong high pressure builds over the region.

MARINE
As of 215 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine weather expected through this weekend and into the middle of next week.

Early this morning, ~1020mb high pressure is centered near the waters with SW winds ranging from 5 to 15 knots. Seas and waves in the Chesapeake Bay are both running around 1 to 2 feet.

High pressure will remain over the area through this weekend leading to southerly winds ~10 kt or less and seas 2 feet or less.
Afternoons will likely see sea breezes which will bring winds onshore. As is sometimes usual in the summer time, south winds may increase slightly at night, but winds will stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria across the area. Next week the ridge of high pressure remains in place allowing winds to remain 10 kt or less and seas generally less than 2 feet. Overall a very benign week of marine weather expected.

CLIMATE
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures Sun 6/22-Wed 6/25

Date Richmond Norfolk Salisbury Eliz. City 06-22 101(1942) 99(1981) 98(1988) 98(1942)
06-23 101(1988) 99(2024) 99(1988) 99(2011)
06-24 102(2010) 101(1880) 100(1914) 99(2010)
06-25 100(1952) 100(1952) 99(1914) 100(1952)

Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures Sun 6/22-Wed 6/25

Date Richmond Norfolk Salisbury Eliz. City 06-22 76(2015) 79(2015) 75(1988) 76(1981)
06-23 78(2024) 79(2015) 75(1929) 78(2015)
06-24 78(2010) 79(1994) 75(1969) 76(2011)
06-25 76(1921) 79(1880) 75(1909) 76(1949)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.