Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Palmyra, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 825 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Showers continue to move into the area with periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall expected through Tuesday.

- Flood Watch is now in effect for the majority of the area, excluding the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore.

- Cannot rule out an isolated tornado Tuesday.

A cut-off low was centered over the Deep South this evening.
An associated sfc low beneath it has occluded through GA with a weak stationary front extending into SC. The result has been a very tropical-esque setup. The upper level low will move NE into the TN Valley on Tue with a weak surface low moving into SE portions of the area by Tue evening. This system will bring a prolonged period of showers and locally heavy rainfall through Tuesday. WPC continues to keep the majority of the CWA in a slight ERO tonight and tomorrow. Widespread light showers continue to spread NE this evening with rain rates gradually increased overnight and into Tue morning. Additionally, some elevated instability could result in a few rumbles of thunder.

The heaviest rain likely falls Tue morning into Tue afternoon with widespread showers continuing throughout the day (PoPs 90-98% for the majority of the area and 70-80% for the Eastern Shore). A warm front will push through the area as well, aiding in extra moisture and lift. Models continue to support above 75th percentile of average daily climo for PWAT values area-wide (in the 1.6-1.8" range). Expecting rainfall totals through Tuesday to be 2-3" with locally higher amounts possible along and E of I-95. The lowest totals look to be over the Eastern Shore where 1-2" of rain is expected. Given the general model consensus for a widespread 2-3" with locally higher totals of 3-5", have issued Flood Watches for the majority of the FA (excluding the Eastern Shore and Northern Neck as totals will be lower in these areas). The Flood Watch will continue into Tue night.

Apart from the heavy rain potential, forecast soundings show a tropical-esque setup with plenty of curvature in the lower levels Tue (0-1 SRH around 100 m2/s2). This SRH combined with SBCAPE increasing to potentially >1000 J/kg across at least S portions of the FA Tue afternoon/evening suggest a non-zero tornado chance across the area. While SPC does not currently have the area under a tornado risk, several areas of rotation were noted across NC early this evening in an area of much lower instability than what models are showing for tomorrow. As such, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. The best chance looks to be late Tue afternoon into Tue evening across SE VA/NE NC as a weak surface low moves NE along a warm front, locally increasing SRH.

Otherwise, mild tonight with lows in the mid-upper 60s. Highs Tuesday in the lower to mid 70s are expected, however, temps may remain just below 70F across the far N given widespread rain/cloud cover.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 350 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Drying out Tuesday night, but still unsettled Wednesday.

- Trending warmer, with scattered aftn/early evening storms possible Thursday.

The upper low will weaken into an open wave off to our W-NW Tuesday night. At the surface, low pressure lifts into the northern mid-Atlantic and a mid-level dry slot moves across the SE coastal plain from the Carolinas, allowing showers to taper off overnight into Wednesday morning. While timing shortwaves can be challenging, the consensus suggests the next wave to round the base of the upper trough Wed aftn/evening, passing through VA/NC , and offshore Wed night. There should be more sunshine Wed compared to Tuesday, allowing for aftn instability, further aided by cold air aloft with the upper low. Lapse rates become marginally more favorable, but 0-6 km bulk shear is 20-25kt at best. Expect scattered to numerous showers/storms Wed aftn/evening (going below the ~90% PoPs of the NBM). A few strong tstms will be possible Wed aftn/evening, containing small hail and gusty winds despite the relatively weak bulk shear.
Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Partly cloudy, drying out Wed night as the upper trough weakens further. Lows upper 50s to low-mid 60s.

Weak upper ridging is expected across the region Thursday, as the next upper low takes shape across the northern Plains/upper midwest. Still enough residual moisture and instability for widely scattered aftn showers/tstms, but overall a much lower coverage is anticipated. Warm with highs into the low-mid 80s.
Mainly dry Thursday night with lows ranging through the 60s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 250 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Summerlike warmth and humidity Friday and Saturday, remaining very warm but with lower humidity Sunday-Monday.

- Isolated to scattered showers/tstms possible Friday- Sunday, mainly dry Monday.

An upper level ridge is forecast to be in place across the area on Friday, shifting offshore by Saturday as the next cold front approaches from the NW. With building heights aloft, and a SW low level flow, highs Friday and Saturday will be well above normal, generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s, along with dew points more typical of summer (upper 60s to lower 70s).
This will lead to heat indices potentially in the mid- upper 90s Friday area-wide. A front looks to approach from the west by later Saturday, with increasing rain chances Saturday afternoon and evening. It will probably be slightly cooler Saturday, though SE VA and NE NC could be just as warm as Friday, with another day where heat indices top out in the mid-upper 90s. Beyond that, there is more uncertainty given only a slight cool down in the wake of the front. The models are into good agreement with an amplified ridge across the central CONUS, and an upper low over the NE CONUS, placing the local area in a NW flow aloft.
PoPs are only ~20% right now but this will need to be monitored for Sunday aftn/evening. Generally looking dry Monday.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 740 PM EDT Monday...

Widespread light to occasionally moderate rain/showers will gradually increase in intensity overnight and into Tue morning.
Winds remain ESE 5-10 kt overnight. Periodic VSBY restrictions will be possible in heavier showers Tuesday, with SE winds increasing to ~15kt with gusts to 20-25kt during the day Tuesday (highest along the coast). Additionally, embedded thunderstorms are possible mainly Tue afternoon. However, confidence in thunder was too low to reflect in the taf at this time. Otherwise, CIGs will gradually lower from SW to NE overnight into Tue morning. IFR CIGs are possible at RIC between 2-5z Tue, however recent trends have been for a slower onset. Elsewhere, CIGs likely remain MVFR until Tue morning with IFR CIGs possible at all terminals between 12-14z Tue. CIGs will likely fluctuate between IFR and MVFR through the day Tue at most terminals with the best chance at remaining IFR through the day at RIC. CIGs eventually lower to IFR at all terminals Tue evening.

Outlook: Scattered showers/storms continue into Tue evening, with slowly improving conditions Tue night. Looking ahead, another round of showers and storms will be possible on Wed afternoon/evening, with a few stronger storms possible. A lower coverage of late day showers/storms is expected Thu-Fri.

MARINE
As of 350 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- SE winds increase tonight, with Small Craft Advisory conditions likely by Tuesday morning.

- Becoming quieter on the waters from later Wednesday into the end of the week, outside of daily showers and storms.

The marine forecast remains on track this afternoon as SE winds slowly increase with low pressure approaching from the W/SW. This afternoon, SE winds are averaging around 10 kt, though a few reporting sites in the lower Chesapeake Bay and lower James River are 10-15 kt.

Expect similar conditions through the night, with winds becoming 10- 15 kt for all marine areas by midnight, then increasing to 15-20 kt by around sunrise Tuesday. The one exception is the northern coastal waters where winds may stay sub-SCA until the afternoon Tuesday. By later Tuesday afternoon and evening, winds increase further to 20-25 kt (15-20 kt upper rivers and Currituck Sound). This prolonged onshore flow will lead to increasing seas on the ocean and waves in the bay, with 4-6 ft seas initially Tuesday, building to 5-7 ft Tuesday night, and 2-4 ft waves (up to 5 ft at the mouth of the bay). Small Craft Advisories are in effect starting at 7 AM Tuesday across the S and lower bay, 10 AM for the rivers and upper bay, and 4 PM for the waters N of Parramore Island. Some guidance continues to show some potential for a few gusts up to 30-35 kt, but feel these higher values will likely be confined to convective elements and not larger-scale synoptic winds due to a still-rather stable marine boundary later. Regarding showers/storms, very localized higher wind gusts (>40 kt) are possible for most of Tuesday into Wednesday.
Small Craft Advisories are in effect through most of Tuesday night, but linger into later Wednesday morning and early afternoon on the coastal waters due to persistent higher seas.

Winds become much lighter Wednesday afternoon and through the rest of the week and weekend. Additional isolated-scattered storms are also possible each day with locally higher winds and waves.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...Flood Watch through late Tuesday night for NCZ012>014-030>032.
Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Tuesday through late Tuesday night for NCZ015>017-102.
VA...Flood Watch through late Tuesday night for VAZ048-060>062- 065>069-079>081-087-088-092-509>511-513>516.
Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Tuesday through late Tuesday night for VAZ064-082>086-089-090-093-095>098-512-517>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630-631.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632-634.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ635>638.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 4 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ654.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ656-658.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...Flood Watch through late Tuesday night for NCZ012>014-030>032.
Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Tuesday through late Tuesday night for NCZ015>017-102.
VA...Flood Watch through late Tuesday night for VAZ048-060>062- 065>069-079>081-087-088-092-509>511-513>516.
Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Tuesday through late Tuesday night for VAZ064-082>086-089-090-093-095>098-512-517>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630-631.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632-634.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ635>638.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 4 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ654.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ656-658.