Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stinson Beach, CA

UPDATE
Issued at 917 AM PDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Stratus has mixed out through the morning and is currently confined to the coastal region. The SPC has placed the interior mountains of Monterey and San Benito Counties and the eastern Santa Clara Hills in an elevated fire weather risk for tomorrow, associated with gusty winds and dry conditions in the interior.
The operations team will evaluate the forecast conditions during the upcoming forecast update and will give a fuller synopsis of the fire weather threat with the next AFD update.

DialH

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 248 AM PDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Today will be the warmest day of the week with bright sunshine inland and marine stratus clearing by the afternoon along our coastal areas as well. Deeper, gusty onshore flow will begin to overspread our area later tonight and persist into the weekend. The gusty winds later tonight into early Thursday may reach 30-40 MPH across elevated inland areas along with typical passes and gaps, with 40-50 MPH gusts possible along the immediate coast, especially near the Bay Area, Big Sur and the Santa Lucia coastlines.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 248 AM PDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Gusty winds, will persist through late Saturday and begin to ease by early Sunday morning after the second and stronger of 2 shortwave troughs associated with a closed low slowly moves inland from the Pacific Northwest. Extended guidance is struggling with our pattern for the beginning of next week and beyond. A strong dome of high pressure centered over the Ohio River Valley this weekend may result in a slow moving cut-off low to spin off of the second stronger trough passage on Sunday. That could result in weak offshore flow increasing fire weather concerns, especially if it lingers with no where to go, blocked by high pressure to the east.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 458 AM PDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Stratus has started to spread into the SF Bay and into the Monterey Bay coastline. Highest confidence in IFR CIGs persisting through mid to late morning before VFR conditions prevail the remainder of the day. CIGs look to be on the LIFR-IFR border across the Bay Area with highest confidence in LIFR conditions at HAF. Gusty onshore flow returns during the afternoon/evening with winds slightly weakening overnight. Low level wind shear is expected at STS late this evening into tomorrow morning due to strong directional and speed shear in the lower levels. Confidence is low as to the return of stratus this evening/overnight. NBM guidance shows stratus returning closer to 03- 06Z but higher resolution guidance suggests it could be delayed to late overnight or not return at all. For now, highest confidence that stratus will impact coastal sites (HAF) but lower confidence that it will extend into the interior Bay Area/Central Coast.

Vicinity of SFO...Patchy stratus is starting to move into SFO with the potential for temporary IFR CIGs to develop through 16Z. Gusty west to northwesterly winds return this afternoon/evening with gusts peaking around 30 knots. Winds ease slightly by the evening/overnight hours but are expected to remain breezy through the end of the TAF period. Stratus chances increase after 10Z with LAMP guidance highlighting increased potential for stratus from 11Z to 17Z. However, confidence is low as to the timing of stratus return and how far inland it will extend with high resolution guidance showing stratus confined closer to the coastline. For now leaning more towards high resolution guidance but that may need to be updated in additional TAF issuances.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR conditions persist through mid to late morning before VFR conditions return. Moderate northwest winds develop during the afternoon/evening hours before easing slightly overnight. Guidance is mixed as to if stratus will reach MRY and SNS tonight with high resolution showing a more optimistic forecast (no stratus) compared to the NBM and LAMP guidance. Stratus and MVFR-IFR CIGs are slightly more likely to reach MRY than SNS tonight with stratus chances increasing after 03-06Z at MRY. If stratus does reach SNS it is likely to not return until after 09Z-12Z with VFR conditions persisting for much of the night.

MARINE
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 248 AM PDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Gale Warnings are in effect for the coastal jet areas south of Point Reyes and Point Sur and across the outer coastal waters.
Hazardous conditions continue through the forecast period with gusty northwesterly winds and moderate to rough seas continue.
Significant wave heights build to 10 to 12 feet across the coastal waters Thursday into the weekend.

MARINE
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 917 AM PDT Wed Jun 18 2025

A passing dry cold front will bring windy conditions to the coastal waters today through Friday. Winds will be strongest over the outer waters and coastal jet locations like north of Point Reyes and south of Point Sur. Gale warnings are in effect in those locations with hazardous conditions and steep wind waves.
Significant wave heights build to 10 to 12 feet across the coastal waters Thursday into the weekend.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0- 10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.