Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Toronto, KS

DISCUSSION
Issued at 159 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

A shortwave trough was located over the central CONUS moving east/northeast while shortwave ridging across the Rockies was beginning to emerge over the Plains. This is expected to bring dry and mild weather conditions to the area today with most areas seeing highs climb into the 80s. Yesterday's frontal boundary only made it into northern Oklahoma before stalling, and rich low level moisture remains draped just south of the area. This low level moisture is poised to return as light southerly winds resume during the predawn hours today. Some fog and low clouds are likely this morning for areas mainly southeast of the Kansas Turnpike. The activity should mix out quickly in south central Kansas while low clouds and fog could linger into the morning hours across parts of southeast Kansas.

A mid/upper trough over the Northern Intermountain region is progged to move into the Rockies late tonight. Downstream over the Central Plains, southwesterly flow through the column will strengthen with a 60 knot H85 LLJ progged overnight with continued strengthening of the mid/upper flow through as we move through the day on Friday.
Point soundings in south central KS on Friday night suggest that the cap will keep a lid on deep moist convection as the LLJ ramps up, but if an isolated storm can develop along the nose of the LLJ, large hail would be possible given steep mid-level lapse rates and around 1500 J/KG of MUCAPE. A more progressive frontal surge is now anticipated with the front bisecting central KS by 18Z on Friday.
The cap should weaken by early afternoon (17-19Z) with MLCAPE progged over 2500 J/KG and very steep mid-lvl lapse rates with deep layer shear around 60+ knots. Any discrete cells with the initial development will be capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes given a very favorable hodograph but confidence in discrete cells remains relatively low at this time given deep layer flow along the frontal boundary leading to messy storm modes while quickly evolving into a qlcs. We could still see some embedded supercells within the line capable of all severe hazards. It will be hard to rule out a couple of mesovortex circulations along the line given large 0-3km bulk shear values and abundant low level buoyancy. The line of storms is expected to clear southeast KS by around midnight, perhaps a bit sooner with a stable post- frontal regime building over the area in the wake of the cold front.

Cool and dry conditions are expected on Sat but breezy southerly winds will return on Sunday as we begin to see more influence from the mid/upper ridge over the Rockies leading to moderating temperatures and dry weather conditions. Breezy southerly winds will continue Mon-Wed as we remain under the influence of the mid/upper ridge. Mild and mostly dry weather is anticipated through the period with highs climbing through the 70s into the lower 80s for central KS by the middle of the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Low-level moisture will start to increase in the overnight hours while also spreading westward towards the Kansas Turnpike, resulting in MVFR/IFR cigs developing over southeast KS and portions of south-central, mainly affecting CNU and ICT. Some patchy fog is also possible on the western edge of the low clouds as sunrise approaches. Low clouds will start to scatter out late morning with VFR conditions expected areawide by Thursday afternoon. Southerly winds will increase in central KS by Thursday afternoon with gusts up to 25-30kts.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 159 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Breezy southerly winds will combine with very dry air and above average temperatures resulting in a very high to extreme grassland fire danger for parts of central Kansas this afternoon and a Red flag warning is in effect.

Increasing northwest winds behind a cold front may support very high grassland fire danger on Friday afternoon over parts of central Kansas.

A very high grassland fire danger will return for areas west of I- 135 from Monday through Wednesday with breezy southerly winds returning to the area.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-047.