Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Toronto, KS
July 3, 2024 12:21 AM CDT (05:21 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:04 AM Sunset 8:53 PM Moonrise 2:36 AM Moonset 6:17 PM |
FXUS63 KICT 022343 AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 643 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Storms likely this evening mainly for south central and eastern KS.
- Pattern will remain active, especially for Wed night through Thu evening. Best chance for storms on 4th of July will be along and especially southeast of the KS Turnpike.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 201 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Currently have an upper trough swinging across the Northern/Central Plains with upper ridging over the Southeast CONUS. At the surface, cold front stretches from southeast KS to south of KRSL and into the OK Panhandle.
Still looking for storms to develop along the cold front late this afternoon or early evening. Extensive cloud cover over central KS could delay convective development a couple hours, at least until the front can get near the clouds southeast edge.
So current thinking is that storms will develop generally in the 21-23z time frame in a line from near Hutch to Marion, with this activity slowly sagging south into the early evening hours.
Looks like storms will have around 2,000-2,500J/KG of CAPE to work with along with 25-35kts of effective shear. So some low end severe hail looks possible. In addition, will have plenty of DCAPE to support severe downburst winds to 70 mph. With a very high PW airmass in place along with a slow moving boundary, heavy rain and localized flooding will also be a possibility through the overnight hours.
Fairly messy forecast setting up for Wed with low confidence, especially in shower and storm chances during the day. There should be a low level baroclinic zone lingering around through south central KS during the morning hours, with persistent 800-600mb moisture transport continuing through the day along with a mid level convergence zone. So current thinking is that we will keep some sct showers and iso storms around through much of the day, especially across southern KS, with an overall decrease in coverage through the afternoon hours. Models also agree well on digging another upper impulse across the Northern Intermountain Wed and into the Central Rockies by Wed evening.
Confidence is high that this will result in an MCS coming off the High Plains Wed night. However, there is considerable uncertainty on the location and track of the MCS. For now will go with the thinking that most likely development will be over northwest KS/sw Nebraska and will track east/southeast Wed night, mainly affecting central and eastern KS. Will be enough deep layer shear and instability for severe storms with the activity Wed night.
By Thu afternoon, upper vort max will be tracking across Nebraska with another cold front expected to be pushing south across the area. By the late afternoon hours Thu, front should be southeast of the KS Turnpike with storms forecast to develop along it, affecting mainly far southern and much of southeast KS. Still looking like a break from storms for both Fri and Sat as we get into northwest flow aloft with strong upper ridging over the Western CONUS. Will bring-in some storm chances starting Sunday and continuing Sun night as an upper impulse dives southeast out of the Northern Rockies and into the Central Plains.
As far as temps go, clouds and precip should hold things down for Wed with above normal highs Thu across southern and Southeast KS ahead of the front. However, once we get into northwest flow for the weekend into next week, highs should return to normal or even slightly below normal which will be a nice change.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 638 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
A line of storms will continue to march eastward into southeast Kansas this evening. Meanwhile a frontal zone will sag slowly southward tonight causing the winds to switch to the east for tonight into Wednesday morning. More showers and storms look to develop over southern Kansas Wednesday morning/afternoon.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ052-053- 067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 643 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Storms likely this evening mainly for south central and eastern KS.
- Pattern will remain active, especially for Wed night through Thu evening. Best chance for storms on 4th of July will be along and especially southeast of the KS Turnpike.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 201 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Currently have an upper trough swinging across the Northern/Central Plains with upper ridging over the Southeast CONUS. At the surface, cold front stretches from southeast KS to south of KRSL and into the OK Panhandle.
Still looking for storms to develop along the cold front late this afternoon or early evening. Extensive cloud cover over central KS could delay convective development a couple hours, at least until the front can get near the clouds southeast edge.
So current thinking is that storms will develop generally in the 21-23z time frame in a line from near Hutch to Marion, with this activity slowly sagging south into the early evening hours.
Looks like storms will have around 2,000-2,500J/KG of CAPE to work with along with 25-35kts of effective shear. So some low end severe hail looks possible. In addition, will have plenty of DCAPE to support severe downburst winds to 70 mph. With a very high PW airmass in place along with a slow moving boundary, heavy rain and localized flooding will also be a possibility through the overnight hours.
Fairly messy forecast setting up for Wed with low confidence, especially in shower and storm chances during the day. There should be a low level baroclinic zone lingering around through south central KS during the morning hours, with persistent 800-600mb moisture transport continuing through the day along with a mid level convergence zone. So current thinking is that we will keep some sct showers and iso storms around through much of the day, especially across southern KS, with an overall decrease in coverage through the afternoon hours. Models also agree well on digging another upper impulse across the Northern Intermountain Wed and into the Central Rockies by Wed evening.
Confidence is high that this will result in an MCS coming off the High Plains Wed night. However, there is considerable uncertainty on the location and track of the MCS. For now will go with the thinking that most likely development will be over northwest KS/sw Nebraska and will track east/southeast Wed night, mainly affecting central and eastern KS. Will be enough deep layer shear and instability for severe storms with the activity Wed night.
By Thu afternoon, upper vort max will be tracking across Nebraska with another cold front expected to be pushing south across the area. By the late afternoon hours Thu, front should be southeast of the KS Turnpike with storms forecast to develop along it, affecting mainly far southern and much of southeast KS. Still looking like a break from storms for both Fri and Sat as we get into northwest flow aloft with strong upper ridging over the Western CONUS. Will bring-in some storm chances starting Sunday and continuing Sun night as an upper impulse dives southeast out of the Northern Rockies and into the Central Plains.
As far as temps go, clouds and precip should hold things down for Wed with above normal highs Thu across southern and Southeast KS ahead of the front. However, once we get into northwest flow for the weekend into next week, highs should return to normal or even slightly below normal which will be a nice change.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 638 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
A line of storms will continue to march eastward into southeast Kansas this evening. Meanwhile a frontal zone will sag slowly southward tonight causing the winds to switch to the east for tonight into Wednesday morning. More showers and storms look to develop over southern Kansas Wednesday morning/afternoon.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ052-053- 067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KCNU
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KCNU
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KCNU
Wind History graph: CNU
(wind in knots)
Topeka, KS,
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