Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Toronto, KS

DISCUSSION
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

An early morning MCS moved southeast into the area and lead to rain and storms across much of central and eastern Kansas this morning.
Cloud cover and convection has caused temperatures to struggle to warm up and it looks like we'll have another day of highs remaining slightly below normal for this time of year as highs reach into the middle 80s areawide. As convection dissipated from the lingering MCV, it left in its wake numerous outflow boundaries across eastern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. The environment will slowly rebound this afternoon with abundant moisture and moderate instability across the KS/OK border. With the introduction of the LLJ later tonight, strong to severe storms look to develop across south- central and southeastern Kansas that could produce some high winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado. This activity will eventually congeal into another MCS that will push southeastward out of the area during the early morning hours on Sunday.

The ridge axis to our west will slowly shift eastward over the next couple of days. Though some rain and storm chances are possible during the overnight hours as convection over the High Plains pushes eastward, chances will remain slightly lower on Sunday night into Monday as the midlevel ridge is situated over the Plains. Better chances for convection will move back into the area on Tuesday with the approach of the next midlevel trough. A corresponding surface low and associated frontal boundary will traverse the Central Plains on Tuesday and Tuesday night bringing with it decent rain and storm chances. SPC currently has portions of central and northern Kansas outlooked for severe weather on their Day 4 forecast. This setup will need to be monitored going forward.

Beyond our Tuesday night rain and storm chances, a ridge will build back in behind this next system and usher in a drier and hotter pattern. Temperatures through early weak will remain about normal for this time of year. But underneath the stout ridge for the middle and end of next week, temperatures will soar into the middle to upper 90s. It's even looking possible that some in the area will see their first triple digit temperature for the year by Friday or Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Issued at 654 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

The main concerns for this forecast period are the next round of thunderstorms late tonight into Sunday morning and MVFR ceilings Sunday morning. There could be a repeat of what occurred this morning across central into southeast Kansas, but there is uncertainty in the coverage and associated impact from the activity which will likely be more isolated for the northern sites (RSL, GBD and SLN) and more scattered across the southern sites (HUT, ICT and CNU). A strong to severe storm in southern Kansas cannot be ruled out with up to 70 mph winds and golf ball sized possible. It was decided to keep the PROB30 given this uncertainty in coverage as well as the window of time expected.
This may be refined with the next issuance. MVFR ceilings are still anticipated particularly across southern Kansas during the morning hours before scattering out in the late morning into the afternoon.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.