Monday, May10, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
El Dorado, KS

Version 3.4
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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:22AMSunset 8:29PM Monday May 10, 2021 4:27 PM CDT (21:27 UTC) Moonrise 4:58AMMoonset 6:34PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near El Dorado, KS
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location: 37.87, -96.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Wichita, KS
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FXUS63 KICT 102047 AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 347 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 344 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

There is a low pressure system over the Great Lakes and another one over the Great Basin. There were scattered showers and isolated rumbles of thunder which lingered along the Kansas and Oklahoma border this morning. Clouds and cooler air remain in place with afternoon temperatures again around 60 degrees.

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 344 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

Highlights:

1) Cool - below seasonal normal by 15 to 20 degrees

2) Precipitation chances thru Wed afternoon

3) Warmer at the end of week

Change: Precipitation chances

The wave over the Great Basin moves southeast to the Front Range for Tuesday then tracks east. As mentioned in the previous discussion, a ridge is impacting the influence of the upcoming impulses. Chances of precipitation (rain) persist but have been adjusted based on the current activity and model trends. The coverage of rain is not expected to be widespread but generally scattered. Amounts will be minimal for most locations with the potential higher amounts (~0.25 inch) across central Kansas (west of I-135 and along U.S. Highway 56) tonight into Tuesday. Probabilities have been lowered for Wednesday from the previous forecast with essentially only slight chances remaining. Thursday should stay dry with a warm up closer to 70 degrees.

LONG TERM. (Friday through Monday) Issued at 344 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

Highlights:

1) Warmer - near and above seasonal normal by 5 to 10 degrees

2) Thunderstorm chances for weekend into next week

Challenge and change: Precipitation chances for the weekend

As pointed out in the previous discussion, uncertainty exists for thunderstorm chances in the extended or through the weekend given model disparity. Moisture transport is on the increase for this time period which will help. Thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast with tweaks in the timing and percentages for Friday thru Sunday. These are expected to continue to be modified as the timeframe gets closer, and models have more time to try to resolve it. Temperatures should return to the 70s for Friday and around 80 degrees for Sunday bringing us near and above seasonal normal for this time of year which is in the mid 70s.

There are two better looking systems late weekend into next week. One is over the northern Rockies while the other is over the Desert Southwest on Sunday. These system will move east for passage late next Monday-Tuesday. While the models indicate stronger systems relative to earlier in the weekend, a disparity still exists in the strength, timing and location. It has been a trend in the extended to show something then decrease it as that time period gets closer. Thus it is hard to even get excited about it.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

* IFR/MVFR conditions likely tonight-TUE AM (central KS) * Periods of RA and reduced VIS through TUE

A couple of upper level waves will impact the area over the next 24 hours. The first is moving through at this time, and will scoot east of the area this afternoon. After a lull in the RA later this afternoon, areas of RA will begin to fill back in this evening from west to east, most likely after 03z/10pm tonight. RA and low CIGs will then spread east and impact much of the area through TUE. Of note, though, the best chance for IFR/MVFR CIGs looks to be confined to central KS. Reduced VIS is likely as well, especially across north-central KS. A few lightning strikes cannot be ruled out with the RA, but the threat of TSRA looks fairly low. The best chance of TSRA looks to be across southern KS.

EXTENDED PLANNING OUTLOOK: The threat of TSRA looks pretty low over the next several days, but may increase some this weekend.

Martin

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Wichita-KICT 46 57 47 61 / 40 50 30 20 Hutchinson 45 56 44 59 / 60 60 30 20 Newton 45 57 45 59 / 50 50 20 20 ElDorado 45 58 46 61 / 40 50 30 20 Winfield-KWLD 46 58 47 62 / 20 40 20 20 Russell 44 55 40 59 / 70 70 30 20 Great Bend 43 54 41 58 / 70 70 30 20 Salina 45 57 44 61 / 40 60 20 20 McPherson 45 57 43 58 / 50 60 20 20 Coffeyville 46 60 48 64 / 10 40 30 10 Chanute 45 60 47 62 / 20 40 40 10 Iola 45 59 46 62 / 30 40 30 10 Parsons-KPPF 46 60 48 63 / 20 40 30 10

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SYNOPSIS . VJP SHORT TERM . VJP LONG TERM . VJP AVIATION . RM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wichita Jabara Airport, KS24 mi34 minNE 11 G 2210.00 miOvercast60°F37°F42%1020 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAAO

Wind History from AAO (wind in knots)
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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