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FXUS63 KICT 251744 AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1244 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Two round of severe weather possible today: This morning into the afternoon hours across eastern Kansas, then again late tonight into Friday morning across much of the area.

- Conditional severe chances east of the Flint Hills Friday afternoon and evening.

- Widespread, potentially significant severe weather possible on Saturday.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 244 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

This Morning through This Afternoon... The mid-level baroclinic zone and low/mid-level moisture is surging northeastward early this morning, and showers and storms have started developing across portions of southern and eastern Kansas as a result.
Uncapped elevated instability is moving northward out of Oklahoma and may support storms producing up to quarter-sized hail early this morning. An organized complex of storms is expected to develop along the KS/NE state line and dive southeastward generally impacting areas along and east of the I-135 corridor later this morning and into the afternoon hours.
Stout elevated instability (1500-2500 J/kg) and fairly decent shear should be able to support up to ping pong ball sized hail and isolated wind gusts up to 60 mph. This MCS may be slow to progress across eastern Kansas, and it's entirely possible portions of southeast Kansas may continue to see strong to marginally severe storms during the afternoon/evening hours.

This Evening through Friday Morning... Most CAMs are trending a bit further east with the daytime MCS that's progged to impact eastern Kansas. Also, increased MUCIN from the west may prevent additional convection across central/south-central Kansas later this morning that would reinforce the rain-cooled air behind an outflow boundary. As a result, the OFB is not expected to impinge on the warm sector too much this afternoon. Additionally, this OFB will intersect the dryline in northwest Kansas. Better synoptic forcing will be present in this region, and a supercell or two may develop late this afternoon/evening along the I-70 corridor in northwest Kansas as a result. Further south, questions remain in the arrival of better synoptic lift and the strength of capping ahead of the dryline. Even if storms develop across southwest Kansas, MLCIN building across the warm sector after sunset will likely limit how far east these storms travel. As such, the threat for significant hail (2-3"+) and tornadoes will likely be limited to areas west of US-281. Transitioning to the overnight period, a Pacific front is progged to merge with the dryline and sweep eastward. There are some uncertainties on if storms develop along the Pacific front in Kansas as better forcing looks to be to the north and south, but any storms that do develop will likely be linear in nature. This expected storm mode, along with the potential that the boundary layer decouples overnight, will mitigate (but not necessarily eliminate) the tornado potential. However, up to quarter-sized hail and up to 60 mph winds cannot be ruled out with any overnight storm. That being said, strong low-level moistening ahead of the advancing Pacific front will erode the cap by Friday morning. Again, synoptic forcing seems to be somewhat misplaced, but if a storm exists in this environment, large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado would be possible.
This seems to be eerily similar to the morning of April 16th a little over a week ago. It should be noted that this environment is exceptionally rare for this time of day in this part of the county, so outright forecasting this potential is extremely difficult, but the low possibility of a repeat there for Friday morning.

Friday Afternoon/Evening... The Pacific front is not expected to clear the forecast area by Friday afternoon, and most of the activity from the morning time should be well off to the northeast.
As a result, a moderately unstable warm sector will exist for locations along and east of the Flint Hills. The main issue will be the lack of a trigger and deteriorating upper level support. The upper wave will be exiting to the northeast where a significant severe weather event could take place across the Mid-Missouri River Valley. Surface winds across the warm sector may be slightly veered, which will limit surface convergence. However, the CIN will essentially be non-existent. If storms are able to develop east of the Flint Hills, 2000-2500 MLCAPE and 45 to 55 knots of effective shear would support supercells capable of golf ball sized hail and damaging wind gusts. Low-level shear initially isn't all that impressive, but the low-level jet will enlarge hodographs, and the tornado potential may briefly increase near 00Z before CIN increases after sunset.

Saturday... With the departing surface low exiting northeastward into the Midwest, and the arrival of the next upper wave inducing pressure falls across the High Plains, deep, rich low-level moisture is expected to return to the northwest as low-level winds back to the southeast Friday night/Saturday morning. By 12Z Saturday morning, lee cyclogenesis will take place across southeast Colorado with a surface trough extending northeastward into the Midwest.
Meanwhile, the dryline will likely be located from central Kansas to western Oklahoma. One of the many failure modes that is making itself apparent with the mid-range global models is the high likelihood for morning convection along the Red River. Still, many of these models show quick atmospheric recovery, and it's possible morning convection will do little to influence the atmosphere in Kansas. Another potential failure mode for a high-end event across the area will be the potential for early initiation, perhaps around 18Z, due to an uncapped warm sector (despite suboptimal synoptic support). Any storms that develop around this time will not have optimal environmental low-level shear which would limit tornado potential. But, robust instability and deep-layer shear would support supercells capable of producing very large hail and damaging winds in this time frame. Even if the first round of initiation occurs early in the afternoon, there should be an opportunity for additional storm development as the dryline gradually retreats during the day. If a round of storms is able to develop later in the afternoon/evening, this is when the environment would prime for significant severe weather. Between 21Z-03Z, robust instability (2500-3500 MLCAPE), steep lapse rates, sufficient deep layer shear, robust low-level instability, and improving low-level shear (especially after 00Z) would support the potential for tornadic supercells.
Assuming the atmosphere hasn't been worked over from early convection, and that storms remain discrete or semi-discrete, the environment would be capable of strong tornadoes. After 03Z, steering winds become more parallel to the frontal boundary/dryline, and this along with robust upper diffluence would support widespread convection along and east of the Kansas Turnpike. Concerns would likely transition to localized flooding for these areas overnight Saturday night.

Sunday and Next Week... The upper trough will exit to the northeast on Sunday, and rain chances should gradually come to an end by midday Sunday as a result. A warming trend is expected to commence next week, but the return of unsettled weather may be possible by mid week next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

A line of showers and storms will move slowly eastward across the region this afternoon with low clouds in IFR/MVFR ranger lingering over central and southern Kansas. More storms are expected to redevelop over western Kansas later this afternoon.
Some of this activity could move across central Kansas tonight with severe weather possible. Low clouds in the IFR category will remain over the area with southeast/south winds increasing from this afternoon and persisting through the night.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 244 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Friday: Very high grassland fire danger is expected Friday afternoon as dry air and windy conditions affect portions of central and south- central Kansas.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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