Sunday, August18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
El Dorado, KS

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 8:20PM Sunday August 18, 2019 4:04 PM CDT (21:04 UTC) Moonrise 9:15PMMoonset 8:28AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near El Dorado, KS
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location: 37.87, -96.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Wichita, KS
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Fxus63 kict 182037
afdict
area forecast discussion
national weather service wichita ks
337 pm cdt Sun aug 18 2019

Short term (this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 333 pm cdt Sun aug 18 2019
forecast highlights:
1. Chance for isolated thunderstorms in southeast kansas this
evening
2. Dangerous heat indices both Monday and Tuesday afternoons
early afternoon surface analysis reveals a weak synoptic cold front
extending from the upper peninsula of michigan southward through
the upper and middle mississippi river valley and into northeast
kansas. Latest surface observations suggest the front then snakes
from northeast kansas, across central kansas, and into the
oklahoma panhandle. 19z metars at ellsworth and russell depict
calm winds while weak southerly surface flow prevails south of the
boundary across much of the forecast area. This front is progged
to sag southward late afternoon and early evening, though some
question about its evolution remains given the lack of meaningful
southerly progression so far today. Temperatures and moisture in
southeast kansas have largely recovered in the wake of lingering
convection that exited the region this morning, and mesoanalysis
reveals sufficient MLCAPE that should continue to increase over
the next 4-6 hours or so in the vicinity of southeast
kansas southwest missouri northeast oklahoma northwest arkansas.

As convective inhibition continues a downward trend, there is
potential for some thunderstorm development within the area of
continued advection of warm, moist air (with dewpoints in the mid
to upper 70s). Effective bulk shear of 35-40 kts would support a
strong to marginally severe storm or two should convective
initiation occur this far north. With that being said, most models
are favoring an area to the southeast of the ict forecast area
for convective initiation, and the latest SPC day 1 convective
outlook has placed the marginal severe risk well to the south of
the area. Given the uncertainty and conditional nature of storm
chances, however, have maintained chance pops in the forecast
throughout much of the evening for far southeast kansas.

Bufkit model soundings also hint at the possibility of some low
clouds patchy fog north of the front in central kansas overnight
tonight and early tomorrow morning. Lingering clouds throughout the
morning should begin to clear up by mid-day tomorrow or so.

Attention then turns to very high heat indices across a large swath
of central and eastern kansas tomorrow afternoon and again on
Tuesday as the front retreats northward across the area as an
effective warm front. Continued low-level southerly flow and 1000-
850mb thicknesses near 1450m or so will allow temperatures to heat
up into the mid to upper 90s while dewpoints increase well into the
70s. The hot and humid conditions will support heat index values in
the 105-110 degree range nearly area-wide Monday afternoon. A
similar pattern will persist on Tuesday with even higher forecast
temperatures. As a result, have issued a heat advisory which runs
throughout this period. See the latest advisory for details.

By Tuesday evening, another cold front will sag into northern
kansas and mark the return of chances of thunderstorms in the
forecast. As the previous discussion mentioned, very weak shear
should keep the potential for severe storms quite low.

Long term (Wednesday through Sunday)
issued at 333 pm cdt Sun aug 18 2019
chances of showers and storms will linger throughout much of the
day on Wednesday as the front slowly pushes southward across
kansas. Relief from the heat will also be in store for Wednesday,
since lingering showers storms clouds will cap temperatures
around 90 degrees or so.

Some areas should receive at least a temporary reprieve from
thunderstorms on Thursday-Friday, but have maintained low pops
throughout the period given the uncertainty in the front
placement. Afternoon highs slightly lower than climatology are
likely to persist throughout the rest of the period.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1241 pm cdt Sun aug 18 2019
a weak surface front will sag southward into southern kansas this
afternoon and evening with a light easterly component wind
prevailing overnight. Isolated convection is possible thru early
this evening as the front drifts into southeast kansas. MVFR ifr
stratus CIGS are expected to develop north of the front with
patchy MVFR fog vsbys across central kansas early Monday morning.

The front will gradually retreat northward on Monday with
conditions improving to high end MVFR orVFR by midday.

Ked

Preliminary point temps pops
Wichita-kict 72 96 76 99 0 0 0 10
hutchinson 69 97 75 100 10 0 0 10
newton 70 94 75 98 0 0 0 10
eldorado 72 94 75 98 10 0 0 10
winfield-kwld 73 97 75 98 20 0 0 10
russell 63 94 73 101 0 0 0 10
great bend 65 96 73 101 0 0 10 10
salina 67 95 75 101 10 10 0 10
mcpherson 67 96 74 99 10 0 0 10
coffeyville 74 96 75 96 40 0 10 0
chanute 72 94 74 95 30 0 0 10
iola 72 93 74 95 30 0 0 10
parsons-kppf 74 95 75 95 40 0 10 10

Ict watches warnings advisories
Heat advisory from 1 pm Monday to 9 pm cdt Tuesday for ksz033-
048>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

Short term... Tav
long term... Tav
aviation... Ked


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wichita Jabara Airport, KS24 mi70 minWSW 610.00 miFair87°F70°F57%1010.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAAO

Wind History from AAO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS19
G25
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SE8SE8SE11SE14
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NW35
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N13--NE85NW10W4----S18
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S11SE13S11SW7W6
1 day agoS16
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SE12--SE13
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SW8--N17
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N11E8--SE10
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2 days agoS10S15
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--S12S11
G19
--S13S12--------E5SE4------S14SW5SE14
G24
SE14
G19
S14
G25
--

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wichita, KS (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wichita, KS
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.