Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Atlantic, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 350 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Cold Weather Advisories remain in effect for much of eastern Virginia (including Hampton Roads) as well as all of northeast North Carolina early this morning.

- Accumulating snow is expected across Northeast North Carolina and Southeast Virginia tonight.

- Winter Storm Warning have been issued for Northeast North Carolina east of the Chowan River, with Winter Weather Advisories from interior northeast North Carolina to Southside Hampton Roads.

- Additional Cold Weather Advisories will be issued for late tonight into Wednesday morning.

GOES water vapor channels depict a broad trough over the eastern 2/3rds of the US, with the primary trough axis from the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains. At the surface, 1045mb arctic high pressure is centered over the Central Plains and extends E into the Mid-Atlantic region. Mostly clear and cold early this morning with increasing cirrus clouds. Temperatures range from the low teens NW to the lower/mid 20s SE with wind chills in the single digits to low teens across the eastern third of the area where a light northerly wind persists, and this area remains under a cold weather advisory.

High clouds will continue to increase and thicken today as low pressure organizes in vicinity of the Northern Gulf Coast.
Temperatures will struggle to rise into the mid 20s N to lower 30s S. By later this aftn, light snow could develop across southern VA and especially NE NC with increasing mid-level WAA.
By this evening, a strong 180+kt upper jet digs across the Mid- Atlantic in advance of a shortwave trough. This will place the eastern Carolinas into SE VA under the RRQ of this feature, with the surface low lifting NE off the Southeast coast. This result in a favorable set-up for banding with model cross-sections depicting favorable sloping frontogenesis with vertical ascent within the DGZ. The only question will be how far N can moisture extend into an ambient dry/cold arctic airmass. At this time, the most favorable location locally is across NE NC E of the Chowan River. QPF is only on the order of 0.2-0.3". However, with SLRs likely reaching 15-20:1 that would result in 3-5" of snow, so the Winter Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from Bertie Co. up to southside Hampton Roads for 1-3" of snow.
However, some locally higher amounts are possible across the southern portions of Chesapeake and VA Beach as some high-res data depicts moisture enhancement form northerly flow off the Ches. Bay. Snow should accumulate efficiently given cold/dry ground. The winter headlines are from 5 PM this aftn through 7 AM Wednesday. Although snowfall will quickly taper off from NW- SE overnight. Minor snow accumulation is possible from s-central/central VA to the MD Eastern Shore with minimal impact as there will be a sharp cut-off in moisture to the NW.

Low temperatures tonight drop into the upper single digits NW, to around 20F SE, with wind chills from around 0 NW to around 10F SE. Therefore, a cold weather Advisory will be issued from late tonight into Wednesday morning.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 420 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Remaining cold Wednesday into Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

- Temperatures remain below average but slightly modify by Thursday afternoon.

Any snow across the southeast will quickly come to an end by or shortly before sunrise Wednesday. Wednesday will likely be the coldest day of the stretch, with highs in the 20s for a majority of the area (lower 20s north). This will set the stage for another cold night with low temperatures again in the single digits or teens for most of the area. One "positive" is that there will be less wind Wednesday night, so the wind chill may close to or equal to air temperatures.

A weak low pressure system still looks to develop along a coastal trough Thursday to our S. Most models have trended down in regards to the precipitation with this system and are generally dry across the local area. The 00z/21 NAM was an outlier, and the 06z/21 NAM is much drier. Still, given the cold air in place, there is a low chance for some additional wintry precipitation across far southern portions of the area ~20-30% chance. Thursday's highs remain chilly and in the 30s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 420 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Generally dry conditions late this week into the weekend.

- Temperatures gradually moderate over the weekend.

An upper trough digs across the Mid-Atlantic Thursday night into Friday, with high pressure building into the region Saturday, before sliding off the Southeast coast Sunday. Mainly dry conditions are expected during this time. Highs Friday range from the mid 30s N to the lower 40s S, after morning lows in the upper teens to mid 20s. Continued cold Friday night into early Saturday morning with lows in the mid teens to lower 20s. Highs moderate into the upper 30s N to mid 40s S Saturday. Not as cold Saturday night with lows in the mid to upper 20s, followed by a noticeable warming trend Sunday as highs are forecast to reach the upper 40s to lower 50s. Another low pressure system arrives early next week. At this time this appears to be a 'warm' system with a chc of rain.

AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 100 AM EST Tuesday...

1045mb high pressure is centered over the Central Plains as of 06z and extends eastward into the Mid-Atlantic region. VFR under a mostly clear sky with some bands of cirrus developing over the region, and also some patchy SC across SE VA/NE NC. The wind is very light out of the N inland, and NNE 8-12kt along the coast. VFR conditions continue today with mid and high clouds increasing and thickening as low pressure develops in vicinity of the northern Gulf coast. This area of low pressure tracks off the Southeast coast tonight bringing a period of snow to NE NC and far SE VA, mainly affecting ECG and potentially ORF as well with occasional IFR vsby in snow. Very light snow or flurries are possible at the remaining sites, but this is not expected to result in reduced vsby. Additionally, occasional MVFR cigs are possible at ORF and ECG tonight. The wind will primarily be NNE 5-10kt inland and 8-12kt along the coast today into tonight.

Dry and VFR conditions return Wednesday into Wednesday night as high pressure builds in from the NW. The only exception is the potential for a streamer off the Ches. Bay early Wednesday. Weak low pressure tracks off the coast Thursday, bringing clouds and a minimal chc of mixed precip at ORF and ECG. High pressure and VFR conditions prevail Thursday night through Saturday.

MARINE
As of 1240 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages

- Periods of freezing spray will be possible tonight through Wednesday due to very cold temperatures in combination with elevated winds.

- Low pressure tracks off the Southeast coast Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Strong high pressure of Arctic origin is centered over the lower Ohio Valley, building toward the area tonight. Meanwhile, developing low pressure is beginning to take shape in the western Gulf of Mexico. Compressed pressure gradient between high pressure to the west and developing coastal trough along the SE coast has allowed for NW winds to increase to 15 to 20 kt in the middle and upper bay over the past couple of hours.
Winds continue to hold at SCA conditions across the bay this evening.
Winds should slightly weaken overnight, as very cold high pressure builds into the region and gradient slackens a bit.
Have accordingly continued SCA for the Bay through 4 am.

High pressure builds west of the waters through Tuesday morning, as a broad surface trough continues to sharpen off the SE coast.
The gradient between these features sharpens further Tuesday night into Wednesday, as low pressure lifts NE from the gulf coast. Latest guidance has winds increasing to ~15-20 kt for the Ches Bay, Currituck Sound, and lower James River with 20-25 kt for the southern coastal waters S of Cape Charles Light. SCA headlines will likely be needed for this period. Seas build to 4-6 ft for the southern coastal waters but are forecast to stay in the 3-4 ft range N of Parramore Island. Low pressure lifts out quickly on Wednesday with improving conditions. Additional areas of low pressure may develop along the strong baroclinic zone offshore later in the week but confidence in the specifics and local impacts remains very low.

Very cold temperatures will result in a continued potential for periods of light to locally moderate freezing spray. The current advisory is in effect until mid morning Tuesday. An extension or expansion of the Freezing Spray Advisory into Tuesday night and early Wednesday seems likely as winds increase overnight and cold temps linger. Thereafter, winds decrease and temperatures slowly moderate so further freezing spray headlines are not anticipated.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MDZ021>025.
Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Wednesday for MDZ021>025.
NC...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Wednesday for NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Wednesday for NCZ013-014-030.
Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Wednesday for NCZ015>017-031-032-102.
VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for VAZ075>078-084>086-089-090-092-093-095>100-523>525.
Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Wednesday for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093- 095>100-509>525.
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Wednesday for VAZ095>098.
MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>632-634>638-650-652-654-656.