Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Smith Island, MD

KEY MESSAGES
1) Frost and/or a freeze is expected tonight for much of the area away from the immediate coast.

2) A warming trend is expected through mid to late week. Scattered showers or thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, but the best chances for widespread rainfall are not until this weekend.

DISCUSSION
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Frost and/or a freeze is expected tonight for much of the area away from the immediate coast.

High pressure (~1030 mb) builds over the region tonight into Tuesday leading to lighter winds. The cold, dry airmass, clear skies and light to calm winds tonight into early Tuesday morning will allow for widespread frost or freeze conditions to develop for a majority of the area away from the immediate coast. Sub-freezing temperatures are expected for much of the area surrounding the I-95 corridor and west and over to the Maryland Eastern Shore. The best potential for a hard freeze (lows in the 20s) will be for our counties N/NW of Richmond and across the interior Maryland Eastern Shore. Further east, temperatures will range from ~32 to 36F which will lead to frost formation. Along the immediate coast, temperatures remain in the upper 30s to lower 40s and frost is not anticipated. Freeze Warnings have been expanded a tier of counties to the east to include all of the Richmond Metro, portions of the Northern Neck and Middle Peninsula, and all of South Central Virginia down into Northampton County, North Carolina. Frost Advisories were expanded to include a majority of the area outside of our Hampton Roads and northeast North Carolina coastal counties/cities.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A warming trend is expected through mid to late week. Scattered showers or thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, but the best chances for widespread rainfall are not until this weekend.

High pressure slides off the coast Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. Another cold front drops south across the area on Wednesday, but overall moisture will be limited. Despite PoPs of ~40 to 60%, not expecting much in the way of QPF, with all of the main models showing ~0.10" or less. With limited instability (MLCAPE ~500 J/kg) a few thunderstorms will also be possible. High temperatures return to above average Wednesday through Saturday with readings in the 80s for most inland locations. A stronger system potentially impacts the region this weekend, bringing the potential for beneficial rainfall. While this system is not expected to be a drought-buster, both the EPS and GEFS are averaging ~0.25-0.50" QPF.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 740 PM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow evening, with any remaining mid-level cloud cover moving offshore over the next few hours. High pressure will settle across the area late this evening and winds will collapse as this occurs. A few gusts to 15-20 kts through 02-03z are possible, but will quickly diminish.

Outlook: Conditions remain VFR through Tuesday night. Another weak front may drop south across the area Wednesday, bringing at least a chance for rain showers (or isolated storms) and increasing cloud cover. VFR conditions Thursday into Friday. The next potential for flight restrictions will be on Saturday when a stronger system moves through the area.

MARINE
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Another cold front is crossing the area today. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and now the tidal rivers through late tonight.

- A south to southwest wind will increase Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning as high pressure moves offshore ahead of a weakening cold front. Additional Small Craft Advisories are possible for the Chesapeake Bay, as well as the lower James River.

A weak cold front is draped across northeastern seaboard and through the area this early afternoon, with a strong (~1028mb) high pressure behind the front. WNW winds have increased to 10-15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt across the local waters. Frequent gusts to 20 kt have been observed over the tidal rivers, so have included these areas in a Small Craft Advisory along with the Chesapeake Bay through late tonight. Winds will decrease overnight to 10-15 kt and shift out of the N. Waves in the Ches. Bay are 1-3 ft waves this aftn into tonight.

High pressure passes across the region Tuesday and settles offshore by mid to late week. A weakening cold front approaches from the N Tuesday night into early Wednesday as high pressure settles offshore. A SSW wind increases to 15-20kt with gusts to near 25kt for the Ches. Bay, northern coastal waters, and potentially the lower James River. SCAs are possible for the Ches. Bay and lower James River Tuesday evening through early Wednesday morning. Seas subside to 2-3ft Tuesday, and then build to 3-4ft N (4-5ft offshore)
later Tuesday night into early Wednesday while remaining 2-3ft S (3- 4ft offshore). This cold front settles through as a backdoor cold front Wednesday night, with another backdoor cold front possible by Friday. Sub-SCA conditions are expected Wednesday through the end of the week, with light onshore flow developing later in the week.
Seas/waves subside to 2-3ft/1-2ft later in the week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for MDZ021>024.
NC...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ012.
INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ013>016- 030>032.
VA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-075-076-079>083-087-088-092-509>522.
INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-075>090-092-097>100-509>525-528>531.
Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ077-078- 084-085-089-090-097-099-523-528-529.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>632- 634>637-639.