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Marine Weather and Tides Saxis, VA Version 3.4

NOTICE 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 7:10AM

Sunset 5:18PM

Sunday January 26, 2020 5:54 AM EST (10:54 UTC)

Moonrise 8:30AM

Moonset 7:05PM

Illumination 2%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saxis, VA

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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 260834 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 334 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure builds in today. A weak disturbance tracks across the area on Monday before high pressure builds in again for midweek.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 300 AM EST Sunday .

Latest analysis this morning shows a low pressure system over NE and high pressure over the deep south. Locally, a weak surface trough continues to slowly push through the area. This is resulting in stubborn cloud cover that is slow to erode over the VA peninsula over to the eastern shore. Elsewhere, mostly clear skies and near calm winds have allowed temps to drop quickly. Already in the lower 30s west of Richmond, with mid and upper 30s across south central VA and inland NE NC. The cloud cover is holding temps over the peninsula and eastern shore in the lower 40s. Temps out west will hold nearly steady the rest of the morning, while temps over the peninsula and close to the coast will continue to slowly fall as the cloudy cover eventually erodes. Overall low temps this morning will be near 30 west to upper 30s east.

High pressure will move from the deep south over to the SE coast during the day today, with zonal flow aloft. Mostly sunny skies expected for much of the area today, with a bit more cloud cover across the northern third of the area during the afternoon as another weak surface trough passes through. High temps this afternoon in the low to mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 300 AM EST Sunday .

A weak shortwave over the TN valley will cross the area on Monday. A weak disturbance ahead of the shortwave will increase cloud cover and bring a slight chance of rain to mainly southern VA and NE NC. Latest QPF forecasts are still in good agreement that rainfall amounts will be light, on the order of just a few hundredths of an inch. Low temps Monday in the 30s and high temps low to mid 50s.

Rain chances end late Monday as the disturbance exits the area to the east. Drier and slightly cooler weather on Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the Midwest. Low temps upper 20s west to mid 30s SE, and high temps ranging from the mid 40s to around 50.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 320 PM EST Saturday .

A weak shortwave will move through the southern portion of the CWA late Monday night into early Tuesday bringing with it a slight chance of a few scattered rain showers Monday afternoon. High pressure moves in Tuesday and persists through Wednesday evening. Another shortwave moves through on Thursday possibly spinning up a weak coastal low off the SE coast well offshore. Models have come into more agreement that any low pressure forming will be too far offshore to provide any widespread precipitation for the CWA. Have therefore lowered PoPs to <25%. High pressure once again moves into the region Friday and will persist until early Saturday. Next weekend becomes a little more interesting with both the GFS and EURO developing a coastal low off of the Carolina coastline and bringing it up the NE coast Saturday into Sunday. However, we will be lacking any substantially cold air and therefore rain is the most likely precipitation type.

Temperatures will be near seasonal through the period. Lows Tuesday-Thursday nights will range from the mid-upper 20s in the NW to the low-mid 30s in the SE. Lows on Friday and Saturday nights will be slightly warmer with low 30s in the NW and upper 30s to around 40F in the SE. Highs will be in the 40s on Wednesday and will range from the mid-40s in the NW to lower 50s in the SE on Thursday-Saturday.

AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 1230 AM EST Sunday .

A weak surface trough is in place over the area, with some residual moisture resulting in cloud cover from Richmond eastward towards the VA peninsula and MD eastern shore. The night fog satellite product picks up on this area of cloud cover well. The hi-res guidance suggests that this cloud cover should stick around for much of the morning. Don't expect IFR conditions at any of the TAF locations, the ceilings will generally bounce around between MVFR and VFR (2500-6000 ft). Don't expect the cloud cover to make it down to ECG, they should remain mostly clear through the period. Winds during the TAF period will be W/NW 5 kts or less this morning and 5-10 kts during the afternoon.

A weak shortwave will move through during the day on Monday bringing a slight chance of showers and sub-VFR ceilings mainly for ORF/ECG.

MARINE. As of 320 AM EST Sunday .

Low pressure is currently centered well N of the local area across Ontario and the St Lawrence Valley with sfc high pressure over the Gulf coast ridging NE into the Carolinas. W winds 5-10 kt prevail early this morning with seas still 4-5 ft on the coastal waters in 10-11 sec period swell. SCA headlines will remain in effect for the southern zones through 10 am and for the northern zones through 1 pm as seas slowly subside.

Low pressure to our N gradually shifts to the E and moves off to Atlantic Canada Mon/Mon night, forcing a dry cold front through the region Monday night/early Tuesday. Guidance remains in decent agreement showing decent CAA behind the boundary and current forecast is for marginal SCA conditions for the Bay (to 15-20 kts) through late Tuesday morning before the gradient slackens heading into the mid week period. SCAs may be needed for the Bay and it could be close on the coastal waters as well (primarily for seas building back to 4-5 ft).

CLIMATE. Due to a tipping bucket error at SBY ASOS yesterday, precipitation for Sat 1/25 was substituted with data from the RAWS site at Powellville (1.03").

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ650- 652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ656- 658.

SYNOPSIS . CMF/ERI NEAR TERM . CMF SHORT TERM . CMF LONG TERM . RMM AVIATION . CMF MARINE . LKB/RHR CLIMATE . AKQ

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA	22 mi	55 min		38°F	47°F		1012.6 hPa (+0.0)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD	26 mi	55 min		42°F	43°F		1012.4 hPa (+0.0)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA	30 mi	55 min					1013.7 hPa (+0.0)
44042 - Potomac, MD	33 mi	31 min	Calm G 5.8	40°F	42°F		1012.8 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA	37 mi	31 min	S 3.9 G 3.9		43°F		1016.4 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA	39 mi	61 min		41°F	41°F		1012.7 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD	44 mi	61 min		43°F	44°F		1013.3 hPa
OCSM2	45 mi	175 min				4 ft
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD	45 mi	67 min	N 1.9 G 1.9
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD	47 mi	55 min		39°F	42°F		1012.3 hPa (+0.0)
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD	49 mi	61 min		42°F	40°F		1012.5 hPa

Wind History for Bishops Head, MD

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6 AM

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Last 24hr

SE12 G17

SW10

W5

S4

S7 G10

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W5

NW4

NW6

NW10

NW11 G14

NW11 G14

N6 G11

N4

N4

NW4

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NW7 G10

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NW2

1 day ago

NE11

NE9

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NE7

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E8 G11

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E10

E10

E8

E10 G13

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E7 G10

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E11

E11 G14

E11 G14

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SE14 G18

E13 G16

E14 G17

E10 G14

SE11

2 days ago

NE2

N3

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NE1 G6

NE4 G7

NE5

NE6

NE6

NE4 G7

NE8

NE8

N6 G9

N5 G8

N5

NE10

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA	14 mi	61 min	NW 5	10.00 mi	Fair	38°F	32°F	79%	1012.3 hPa
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA	19 mi	60 min	no data	7.00 mi	Overcast	37°F	36°F	99%	1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWAL

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)

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SE13 G22

SE12

SW8

W7

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S7

W9

W10

W6

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W5

NW6

NW9

NW8

NW5

NW4

W5

Calm

W3

W4

NW5

W6

NW5

1 day ago

NE15

NE14

NE11

NE12

NE10

NE12

NE13

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NE13

E11

E10 G16

E10

E16

E14 G19

E12

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E15

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E14 G20

E12

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E13

SE10 G20

S9

2 days ago

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NE12

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NE10

NE7

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N4

N6

N3

NE6

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NE11

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Tide / Current Tables for Muddy Creek Entrance, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia

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Tide / Current Tables for Ape Hole Creek, Pocomoke Sound, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (5,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE

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