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Marine Weather and Tides Saxis, VA Version 3.4

NOTICE 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 6:41AM

Sunset 7:29PM

Friday April 3, 2020 3:03 AM EDT (07:03 UTC)

Moonrise 1:18PM

Moonset 3:08AM

Illumination 77%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saxis, VA

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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 030537 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 137 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020

SYNOPSIS. Strong low pressure will remain off the New England coast as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes. High pressure remains over the Great Lakes tonight and Friday as the low pivots back toward the coast. The low will push farther east Saturday as high pressure builds over the area.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. As of 720 PM EDT Thursday .

Only minor tweaks to the near term forecast, mainly to align temps and dewpoints to current trends. After discussions with neighboring offices, decided to mention the possibility of enhanced fire danger risk in the HWO and FWF for portions of inland VA and NE NC on Friday. Conditions are marginal, so will continue to reassess overnight after looking at 00Z model data and further consultations with neighboring offices to see if any statements are needed.

Previous discussion .

As of 400 PM EDT Thursday .

Strong low pressure continues to spin well off the New England coast with high pressure over the northern Plains. Northwesterly winds 15- 25mph over the region today will decrease over land areas tonight but are not expected to fully decouple. The low over the Atlantic will retrograde back toward the US coast tonight which will restrengthen the pressure gradient over the region, especially over the eastern half of the area and near the coast where winds will stay in the 10-15mph range. Across the Piedmont counties tonight, winds will have the greatest chance to decouple under clear skies and temperatures will fall into the mid 30s. Expecting upper 30s and low 40s for those near and east of I-95. Clouds will increase after midnight across the MD Eastern Shore as the low retrogrades toward the coast.

After a cool start to the day Friday temperatures will warm into the upper 60s over the Piedmont, the mid 60s for the I-95 corridor, and the upper 50s to low 60s for the Eastern Shore and coastal sections. Clouds over the east and northeast will keep temperatures in check with a slight chance for a stray shower or two for Salisbury over to Ocean City as the low makes its closest approach to the coast. Winds will be gusty once again on Friday with sustained winds 10-20mph and gusts 25-30mph. Given low dew points and warming afternoon temps, relative humidity values are expected to fall into the 20-30% range from I-95 westward during the afternoon. Recent rainfall and an early Spring green-up will help to mitigate fire weather concerns but will mention these conditions in the HWO and leave it to the overnight shift to decide whether an SPS is necessary. Lows Friday night fall into the low to mid 40s with partly cloudy skies.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 400 PM EDT Thursday .

Dry with temps near seasonal norms this weekend as Atlantic low pressure finally pulls away from the region on Saturday and high pressure builds into the area. Temperatures will again be warmest over the west where mid 60s are forecast. Elsewhere, temperatures will top out in the upper 50s to low 60s. Remaining dry Saturday night with lows in the low 40s. Warming trend gets underway on Sunday with partly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 60s and low 70s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 400 PM EDT Thursday .

High pressure slips south/offshore of the region by Sunday night with weak S to SW flow taking hold into early Monday. A weak cold front slides south through the region during the day on Monday before stalling near the area. The front then lifts back north of the region Monday night into Tuesday as a warm front. Chances for rain showers will be possible Monday into Wednesday with the front lingering in the area and a series of low amplitude waves in the NW flow aloft traverse the region. High temperatures will generally range from the mid to upper 70s Monday through Wednesday with cooler temperatures at the coast(mid 60s to lower 70s). Low temperatures generally range from the upper 40s to mid 50s Sunday night through Wednesday night. By late Wednesday into Thursday, a cold front potentially approaches from the NW and crosses the region. As a result, have kept slight chance to chance PoPs in the forecast into Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 135 AM EDT Friday .

SKC conditions prevail at the terminals early this morning, with low pressure offshore of the New England coast slowly retrograding to the SW. A band of clouds (mainly VFR) on the back side of the low is slowly approaching the Lower Ern Shore from the NE. NW winds have temporarily diminished to ~10 kt, but will become gusty again late this morning through the day today. Expect gusts to ~25 kt inland/25-30 kt closer to the coast. Winds will turn more to the N-NNW and diminish to ~10 kt tonight (but may occasionally gust to 15-20 kt near the coast). Skies will remain clear at all of the terminals through at least mid morning. However, the aforementioned band of clouds will overspread the NE half of the CWA during the day (from NE- SW). Expect CIGs to become BKN at SBY (~5000-6000 ft) by midday, with SCT-BKN VFR CIGs moving into RIC/ORF/PHF by late aftn. ECG should remain mainly clear through 00z Sat. CIGs will likely lower to (high-end) MVFR at SBY by mid-late aftn, while VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the other terminals through the 06z TAF period. There is a slight chc of a light shower or two at SBY from this aftn-tonight, but no operational impacts are expected from any pcpn.

Outlook . VFR conditions will prevail through the weekend as high pressure remains in control Saturday and Sunday.

MARINE. As of 400 PM EDT Thursday .

The area of low pressure that moved off the Carolina coast earlier this week is centered off the coast of Nova Scotia this afternoon. The large area of low pressure has continue to deepen at the same time as high pressure system propagates east across the Midwest. This is given us a NNW wind across the coastal water this afternoon. Winds this afternoon are 15-20 kt with gusts around 30 kt (some brief gusts up to 35 kt). Waves in the Chesapeake Bay are expected to be 3-4 ft this evening into tonight, and seas in the ocean are expected to be 5-7 ft into tonight.

The low pressure, south of Nova Scotia, will regrade southwest and be east of the Mid-Atlantic coast (south of Cape Cod) by Friday afternoon. The pressure gradient will tighten over the southern Mid- Atlantic as the low tracks southwest and the high pressure builds east. Northwest winds will increase near midnight tonight to 20-25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. There is a possibility of a brief period of gale force gusts across the central Chesapeake, as the northwest winds are funneled down the Potomac River. In addition, there is a chance of gusts 35-40 kt 20 nm offshore of our Atlantic coast. Strongest winds are expected to be early Friday morning into late morning. During this time, waves in the bay are expected to be 3-5 ft, 2-3 ft in the rivers, and seas in the ocean are expected to be 5- 7 ft. Winds will remain elevated Friday afternoon, NW 20- 25 with gusts near 30 kt.

The low pressure will track southeast as the high pressure moves into northern Mid-Atlantic Friday night. In response, winds will become north and decrease slightly, N ~20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. High pressure will build south into our area by Saturday allowing for winds to drop below SCA criteria, NE 5-10 kt across the bay and NE 10-15 kt across the ocean coastal waters.

SCAs are in effect from now into Saturday morning for all our coastal waters (SCAs for the river, minus the lower James, go through Friday evening). SCAs will remain in effect through at least Saturday afternoon for elevated seas. As the low pressure system once again moves away from our coast, large swell will reach the east coast Saturday. Seas Saturday are expected to be 8-10 ft across all ocean zones.

FIRE WEATHER. As of 400 PM EDT Thursday .

Continued dry and breezy over the region Friday. Min RH values are expected to drop to 20-25% over the SW Piedmont along with a 10-15 mph NW wind with gusts to ~20 mph. SPC has included this area in a Day 2 elevated fire risk. Early green-up will likely be a limiting factor to any fire weather concerns Friday. More cloud cover from the I-95 corridor ewd will result in higher min RH values (30-35% for I-95 corridor to 40-50% toward the coast).

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 400 PM EDT Thursday .

Decent N-NW winds/a few more ebb tides will allow anomalies in the bay to remain relatively low, and no coastal flooding is expected through Fri. However, increasing swell (perhaps 7-9 ft) coupled w/ decreasing N winds will likely allow water to again pile up in the bay, resulting in an increase in tidal anomalies. Minor tidal flooding appears likely in many areas adjacent to the Ches Bay (and also Atlantic Ocean) this weekend. Cannot rule out a few occurrences of moderate tidal flooding this weekend in the typical flood-prone sites across the VA Nrn Neck/bay side of the Lower MD Ern Shore.

CLIMATE. March 2020 temperature ranks:

4th warmest at RIC (54.8F), #1 1945 (58.5F) 4th warmest at ORF (57.0F), #1 1945 (59.5F) 8th warmest at SBY (50.7F), #1 1945 (56.2F) 4th warmest at ECG (58.0F), #1 1945 (61.5F)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ634-650- 652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>633- 638.

SYNOPSIS . RHR NEAR TERM . CMF/RHR SHORT TERM . RHR LONG TERM . AJB AVIATION . CMF/ERI MARINE . CP/ERI FIRE WEATHER . AKQ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . AKQ CLIMATE . AKQ

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA	22 mi	45 min	NNW 6 G 12	54°F	53°F		1008 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD	26 mi	45 min	NW 16 G 20	53°F	53°F		1007.9 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA	30 mi	45 min	WNW 18 G 21				1009.6 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD	33 mi	27 min	WNW 18 G 23	53°F	53°F		1008.7 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA	37 mi	27 min	NW 16 G 19		53°F		1012.4 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA	39 mi	45 min	NNW 16 G 25	54°F	53°F		1009.4 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD	44 mi	51 min	NW 14 G 19	51°F	49°F		1007.1 hPa
OCSM2	45 mi	183 min				2 ft
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD	45 mi	45 min	NNW 23 G 27
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD	47 mi	45 min	NW 11 G 17	54°F	53°F		1008.7 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD	48 mi	57 min	NW 20 G 28				1009 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD	49 mi	45 min	WNW 16 G 23	54°F	53°F		1007.8 hPa

Wind History for Bishops Head, MD

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N10 G14

N9 G14

NW11 G15

NW9 G13

NW14 G17

NW17 G23

NW17 G25

NW21

NW22 G27

NW24

NW24 G29

NW25 G31

NW23

NW21 G29

NW23 G28

NW17 G21

NW16 G22

NW12 G19

NW9

NW9 G12

NW12 G17

NW15 G20

NW12 G17

NW13 G19

1 day ago

NE17 G22

NE16 G23

NE17 G26

NE15 G22

NE11 G19

NE16 G24

NE9 G24

N11 G18

N14 G20

N9 G17

NE6 G14

N9 G18

N12 G16

NW13 G20

N11 G19

NW10 G14

NW11 G15

NW5

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N10 G13

2 days ago

N5

N3

NW3

NE5 G8

NE5

NE8

NE8 G11

NE4

E5 G9

E12 G16

E11 G14

E12 G15

E13 G16

E14 G20

E13 G17

E13 G17

E16 G20

NE13 G21

NE12 G19

NE17 G22

NE16 G23

NE15 G22

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA	14 mi	69 min	NW 9	10.00 mi	Fair	50°F	28°F	44%	1007.5 hPa
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA	19 mi	68 min	NW 12 G 23	10.00 mi	Fair	54°F	34°F	48%	1008.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWAL

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)

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Last 24hr

NW10 G16

NW10

NW12

NW8

NW8

NW17 G22

NW20 G28

NW21 G24

NW21 G34

NW15 G28

NW18 G28

NW23 G37

NW24 G34

NW20 G31

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NW4

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1 day ago

NE22 G28

NE20 G27

NE19 G31

N13 G19

N12 G22

N14 G20

N14 G20

N17 G22

N13 G21

N12 G19

N10 G18

N14 G21

NW12 G18

N6

E10

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2 days ago

N5

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Calm

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NE17

E17

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NE19

NE21 G28

NE23 G30

NE23 G33

NE27 G32

NE27 G34

NE28 G34

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Tide / Current Tables for Muddy Creek Entrance, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia

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Tide / Current Tables for Ape Hole Creek, Pocomoke Sound, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (3,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE

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