Friday, April3, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Saxis, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 7:29PM Friday April 3, 2020 3:03 AM EDT (07:03 UTC) Moonrise 1:18PMMoonset 3:08AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 207 Am Edt Fri Apr 3 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday morning...
Through 7 am..NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Today..NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Tonight..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..N winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 1 to 2 ft in the late morning and afternoon.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..SW winds 5 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 207 Am Edt Fri Apr 3 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure meanders well offshore of the waters through Saturday. Meanwhile, high pressure slowly builds in from the northwest from today through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saxis, VA
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location: 37.92, -75.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 030537 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 137 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020

SYNOPSIS. Strong low pressure will remain off the New England coast as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes. High pressure remains over the Great Lakes tonight and Friday as the low pivots back toward the coast. The low will push farther east Saturday as high pressure builds over the area.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. As of 720 PM EDT Thursday .

Only minor tweaks to the near term forecast, mainly to align temps and dewpoints to current trends. After discussions with neighboring offices, decided to mention the possibility of enhanced fire danger risk in the HWO and FWF for portions of inland VA and NE NC on Friday. Conditions are marginal, so will continue to reassess overnight after looking at 00Z model data and further consultations with neighboring offices to see if any statements are needed.

Previous discussion .

As of 400 PM EDT Thursday .

Strong low pressure continues to spin well off the New England coast with high pressure over the northern Plains. Northwesterly winds 15- 25mph over the region today will decrease over land areas tonight but are not expected to fully decouple. The low over the Atlantic will retrograde back toward the US coast tonight which will restrengthen the pressure gradient over the region, especially over the eastern half of the area and near the coast where winds will stay in the 10-15mph range. Across the Piedmont counties tonight, winds will have the greatest chance to decouple under clear skies and temperatures will fall into the mid 30s. Expecting upper 30s and low 40s for those near and east of I-95. Clouds will increase after midnight across the MD Eastern Shore as the low retrogrades toward the coast.

After a cool start to the day Friday temperatures will warm into the upper 60s over the Piedmont, the mid 60s for the I-95 corridor, and the upper 50s to low 60s for the Eastern Shore and coastal sections. Clouds over the east and northeast will keep temperatures in check with a slight chance for a stray shower or two for Salisbury over to Ocean City as the low makes its closest approach to the coast. Winds will be gusty once again on Friday with sustained winds 10-20mph and gusts 25-30mph. Given low dew points and warming afternoon temps, relative humidity values are expected to fall into the 20-30% range from I-95 westward during the afternoon. Recent rainfall and an early Spring green-up will help to mitigate fire weather concerns but will mention these conditions in the HWO and leave it to the overnight shift to decide whether an SPS is necessary. Lows Friday night fall into the low to mid 40s with partly cloudy skies.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 400 PM EDT Thursday .

Dry with temps near seasonal norms this weekend as Atlantic low pressure finally pulls away from the region on Saturday and high pressure builds into the area. Temperatures will again be warmest over the west where mid 60s are forecast. Elsewhere, temperatures will top out in the upper 50s to low 60s. Remaining dry Saturday night with lows in the low 40s. Warming trend gets underway on Sunday with partly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 60s and low 70s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 400 PM EDT Thursday .

High pressure slips south/offshore of the region by Sunday night with weak S to SW flow taking hold into early Monday. A weak cold front slides south through the region during the day on Monday before stalling near the area. The front then lifts back north of the region Monday night into Tuesday as a warm front. Chances for rain showers will be possible Monday into Wednesday with the front lingering in the area and a series of low amplitude waves in the NW flow aloft traverse the region. High temperatures will generally range from the mid to upper 70s Monday through Wednesday with cooler temperatures at the coast(mid 60s to lower 70s). Low temperatures generally range from the upper 40s to mid 50s Sunday night through Wednesday night. By late Wednesday into Thursday, a cold front potentially approaches from the NW and crosses the region. As a result, have kept slight chance to chance PoPs in the forecast into Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 135 AM EDT Friday .

SKC conditions prevail at the terminals early this morning, with low pressure offshore of the New England coast slowly retrograding to the SW. A band of clouds (mainly VFR) on the back side of the low is slowly approaching the Lower Ern Shore from the NE. NW winds have temporarily diminished to ~10 kt, but will become gusty again late this morning through the day today. Expect gusts to ~25 kt inland/25-30 kt closer to the coast. Winds will turn more to the N-NNW and diminish to ~10 kt tonight (but may occasionally gust to 15-20 kt near the coast). Skies will remain clear at all of the terminals through at least mid morning. However, the aforementioned band of clouds will overspread the NE half of the CWA during the day (from NE- SW). Expect CIGs to become BKN at SBY (~5000-6000 ft) by midday, with SCT-BKN VFR CIGs moving into RIC/ORF/PHF by late aftn. ECG should remain mainly clear through 00z Sat. CIGs will likely lower to (high-end) MVFR at SBY by mid-late aftn, while VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the other terminals through the 06z TAF period. There is a slight chc of a light shower or two at SBY from this aftn-tonight, but no operational impacts are expected from any pcpn.

Outlook . VFR conditions will prevail through the weekend as high pressure remains in control Saturday and Sunday.

MARINE. As of 400 PM EDT Thursday .

The area of low pressure that moved off the Carolina coast earlier this week is centered off the coast of Nova Scotia this afternoon. The large area of low pressure has continue to deepen at the same time as high pressure system propagates east across the Midwest. This is given us a NNW wind across the coastal water this afternoon. Winds this afternoon are 15-20 kt with gusts around 30 kt (some brief gusts up to 35 kt). Waves in the Chesapeake Bay are expected to be 3-4 ft this evening into tonight, and seas in the ocean are expected to be 5-7 ft into tonight.

The low pressure, south of Nova Scotia, will regrade southwest and be east of the Mid-Atlantic coast (south of Cape Cod) by Friday afternoon. The pressure gradient will tighten over the southern Mid- Atlantic as the low tracks southwest and the high pressure builds east. Northwest winds will increase near midnight tonight to 20-25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. There is a possibility of a brief period of gale force gusts across the central Chesapeake, as the northwest winds are funneled down the Potomac River. In addition, there is a chance of gusts 35-40 kt 20 nm offshore of our Atlantic coast. Strongest winds are expected to be early Friday morning into late morning. During this time, waves in the bay are expected to be 3-5 ft, 2-3 ft in the rivers, and seas in the ocean are expected to be 5- 7 ft. Winds will remain elevated Friday afternoon, NW 20- 25 with gusts near 30 kt.

The low pressure will track southeast as the high pressure moves into northern Mid-Atlantic Friday night. In response, winds will become north and decrease slightly, N ~20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. High pressure will build south into our area by Saturday allowing for winds to drop below SCA criteria, NE 5-10 kt across the bay and NE 10-15 kt across the ocean coastal waters.

SCAs are in effect from now into Saturday morning for all our coastal waters (SCAs for the river, minus the lower James, go through Friday evening). SCAs will remain in effect through at least Saturday afternoon for elevated seas. As the low pressure system once again moves away from our coast, large swell will reach the east coast Saturday. Seas Saturday are expected to be 8-10 ft across all ocean zones.

FIRE WEATHER. As of 400 PM EDT Thursday .

Continued dry and breezy over the region Friday. Min RH values are expected to drop to 20-25% over the SW Piedmont along with a 10-15 mph NW wind with gusts to ~20 mph. SPC has included this area in a Day 2 elevated fire risk. Early green-up will likely be a limiting factor to any fire weather concerns Friday. More cloud cover from the I-95 corridor ewd will result in higher min RH values (30-35% for I-95 corridor to 40-50% toward the coast).

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 400 PM EDT Thursday .

Decent N-NW winds/a few more ebb tides will allow anomalies in the bay to remain relatively low, and no coastal flooding is expected through Fri. However, increasing swell (perhaps 7-9 ft) coupled w/ decreasing N winds will likely allow water to again pile up in the bay, resulting in an increase in tidal anomalies. Minor tidal flooding appears likely in many areas adjacent to the Ches Bay (and also Atlantic Ocean) this weekend. Cannot rule out a few occurrences of moderate tidal flooding this weekend in the typical flood-prone sites across the VA Nrn Neck/bay side of the Lower MD Ern Shore.

CLIMATE. March 2020 temperature ranks:

4th warmest at RIC (54.8F), #1 1945 (58.5F) 4th warmest at ORF (57.0F), #1 1945 (59.5F) 8th warmest at SBY (50.7F), #1 1945 (56.2F) 4th warmest at ECG (58.0F), #1 1945 (61.5F)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ634-650- 652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>633- 638.

SYNOPSIS . RHR NEAR TERM . CMF/RHR SHORT TERM . RHR LONG TERM . AJB AVIATION . CMF/ERI MARINE . CP/ERI FIRE WEATHER . AKQ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . AKQ CLIMATE . AKQ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 22 mi45 min NNW 6 G 12 54°F 53°F1008 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 26 mi45 min NW 16 G 20 53°F 53°F1007.9 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 30 mi45 min WNW 18 G 21 1009.6 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 33 mi27 min WNW 18 G 23 53°F 53°F1008.7 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 37 mi27 min NW 16 G 19 53°F1012.4 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 39 mi45 min NNW 16 G 25 54°F 53°F1009.4 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 44 mi51 min NW 14 G 19 51°F 49°F1007.1 hPa
OCSM2 45 mi183 min 2 ft
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 45 mi45 min NNW 23 G 27
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 47 mi45 min NW 11 G 17 54°F 53°F1008.7 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 48 mi57 min NW 20 G 28 1009 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 49 mi45 min WNW 16 G 23 54°F 53°F1007.8 hPa

Wind History for Bishops Head, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA14 mi69 minNW 910.00 miFair50°F28°F44%1007.5 hPa
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA19 mi68 minNW 12 G 2310.00 miFair54°F34°F48%1008.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWAL

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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--------NW4NW7NW6NW5NW9NW8
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N6E10E6SE3SW3SW5W4W3W4W5NW9
2 days agoN5N4N3Calm--NE7NE9NE10E13NE13E11NE10NE10NE13NE17E17--NE19NE21
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Tide / Current Tables for Muddy Creek Entrance, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Muddy Creek Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:50 AM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:47 AM EDT     2.32 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:51 PM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:18 PM EDT     2.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.60.30.30.50.91.41.92.22.32.21.91.510.60.40.30.50.91.41.82.121.8

Tide / Current Tables for Ape Hole Creek, Pocomoke Sound, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Ape Hole Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:55 AM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:57 AM EDT     2.43 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:56 PM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:28 PM EDT     2.17 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.60.40.30.40.81.41.92.32.42.321.61.10.70.40.30.50.91.41.92.12.11.9

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.