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FXUS63 KJKL 030201 AAB AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1001 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

UPDATE
Issued at 1001 PM EDT MON OCT 2 2023

Just sent out a quick update to the forecast. No significant changes were needed as the forecast still appears to be on track.
Did update the zone forecast text product to remove outdated evening wording. Also continued using the latest obs to freshen up the forecast grids and establish new trends with those. The updated grids have been saved, published, and sent to NDFD.

UPDATE Issued at 752 PM EDT MON OCT 2 2023

Forecast still pretty much on track so far this evening. Used the latest obs to freshen up the forecast grids and establish new trends in that data. The current wording in the zone forecast text product is still fresh and no updates to the overall forecast are necessary at this time.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 300 PM EDT MON OCT 2 2023

Aside from the seasonably warm conditions, it has been a pleasant early Fall day. The last of valley fog burned off by mid morning, allowing for sunny skies, outside of fair-weather cu mainly along and south of the Hal Rogers Parkway, to dominate thus far. This has allowed most locations to warm into the upper 70s to low 80s as of 1830z. Surface analysis highlights high pressure centered across the Allegheny National Forest, sliding east with time.

Through the short-term period, guidance is in good shape on a persistent forecast. A duo of 5H highs encompass the eastern half of the CONUS; one centered across the Gulf of Mexico and a second extended northeast to the Mid Atlantic. This will keep the area dry overnight, with light flow and mostly clear skies. A deep longwave trough will be draped across the western half of the USA, which could bring changes to the area further discussed in the long term.
Given the set up for efficient radiational cooling tonight, areas of dense valley fog and moderate ridge/valley temperature splits are forecast. The deepest sheltered valleys should bottom out in the low to mid 50s, while thermal belts are closer to the 60 degree mark- similar readings to those of this morning. Through Tuesday, the ridge will look to weaken a bit, as mid level energy builds into the lee-side of the Appalachians. This will lead to minor height falls locally tonight into Tuesday, but with limited access to moisture and the lack of support in CAMs, ridging should win out. As such, have kept the forecast dry with higher PoP further southeast of the area. Valley fog under mostly clear skies can then be expected overnight Tuesday through the end of the period, with lows similar to tonight- in the low 50s to around 60 degrees on ridges.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 400 PM EDT MON OCT 2 2023

Plenty sensible weather to consider in the extended but typically have to remain within generalities at this point. Good enough agreement with synoptic scale features aloft through the period but differences are large enough at the surface that there is lower confidence with broader details of sensible weather.

Ridging aloft breaks down rapidly at the start of the extended while a surface high yields to an approaching storm system from the west.
An initial H500 lobe of energy on the eastern periphery of a larger trough will be passing through the Plains and into the Midwest at the start of period, taking on an increasingly positive tilt as it pushes into the Ohio Valley and shears out. However, additional energy moving out of Canada will reamplify and deepen this trough as it progresses through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, with the eventuality of taking on a slightly negative tilt by DY5, Friday. An upper low develops over the Great Lakes late in the period and appears to set up residence somewhere over eastern Canada by the end of the forecast window.

Sensible weather features a warm start to the extended. Afternoon highs Wed-Thu are expected to be 5-10 degrees above normal (80-85)
while morning lows will only fall to around 60 Thu-Fri morning. A cold front with a reinforcing shot of colder air on the heels of the first surface feature will introduce (with high confidence) our first real push of autumn like air of the season, with the likelihood of afternoon highs dropping to around 60 or slightly cooler by this upcoming weekend. Overall trends have been towards slightly cooler air. This makes forecasted overnight mins more interesting, and more specifically as to whether there will be any potential for frost. NBM 5th and 10th percentiles takes potential mins into the mid 30s for portions of eastern Kentucky Sunday and Monday mornings. But those types of lower percentiles are realized best when surface high pressure is more directly over the region (overhead). There is considerably more uncertainty where the surface high will center itself by the end of the period and whether that will that occur on Sunday or Monday.

Ensemble means and members from both the GEFS and ECMWF generally keep the center of high pressure to our west and southwest. Thus in general experience suggests overnight lows would not reach those lower 5th and 10th percentile levels. A slightly warmer overnight low may be more prudent at this point, possibly in the upper 30s to around 40 for our typically coolest locations versus mid 30s.
Adjusting COOP MOS for the less than ideal radiative cooling conditions supports this ideas as well, at least for now. Thus confidence is not great for the potential of even patchy frost, and would prefer to see the high centered closer to eastern Kentucky and lower forecasted surface/boundary layer dew points for better radiative conditions first. The location of the high and surface low over eastern Canada may tend to keep slightly more moisture in place across the area from out of the Great Lakes area as well...or possibly a tendency for a bit more cloud cover.
Thus overall confidence is not great enough at this time to mention frost in the forecast. Conditions may be cool enough however, to help bring out a bit more fall colors in the end.

The only hazard to consider at this point is the threat of thunder. Eventually this will become a more dynamic system as it tracks through the region and timing will be crucial. But the initial lobe of energy and corresponding surface front is not as impressive as the second more energetic portion of the system moves into the area post frontal. However, this will tend to redefine the surface system. But at present timing the more disorganized portion of the system through the area may allow for less than ideal conditions for thunder over the bulk of our area.
Yet trends are for a bit more instability and stronger dynamics across our area. Thus went with guidance and introduced some thunder across the area for Friday and early Friday evening with the initial surface system.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 752 PM EDT MON OCT 2 2023

VFR conditions still expected to prevail through late tonight at most of the TAF sites. SME or SJS may still experience breif periods of MVFR fog between 8 and 12Z Tuesday. Fog will likely be prevalent again late tonight into early Tuesday morning in valleys and near bodies of water. Any fog that forms should dissipate between 12 and 13Z tomorrow. Any airports that experience fog late tonight or early Tuesday morning should see any visibility restrictions go away by 13Z as well. Aside from that, winds should be light and variable overnight and less than 10Kts on Tuesday once the sun rises and things begin to warm up a bit.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.

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