SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 316 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2024

An upper level trough axis will dive south-southeast across the Upper Ohio River Valley the remainder of this afternoon and evening, clearing eastern Kentucky late tonight. A highly amplified yet narrow upper ridge builds rapidly across the area Saturday morning, with the ridge axis aloft moving to over the US Highway 23 corridor late Saturday night. Meanwhile, an upper trough lifting northeast across the Lower Missouri and Mid- Mississippi Valleys pushes a warm front slowly northeast across the Lower and Mid-Ohio River Valleys Saturday night.

Cold front across TN will serve as the focal point for shower and thunderstorm activity the remainder of this afternoon into early this evening. The proximity to the front and lingering 70-plus degree dew points over the far southwestern counties will help fire off a few isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms near the TN border, mainly to the south and southwest of Somerset. Otherwise, a very dry mid-level air mass will move over the vast majority of the remainder of the forecast area, bringing clearing skies outside of the typical nighttime fog in the deeper river valleys.

Saturday will bring a near-repeat of shower and thunderstorm chances from today as a stationary front will be close enough to warrant slight chance PoPs across the far southwestern part of the forecast area. However, the vast majority of locations will experience sunny conditions with low humidity, with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.

The aforementioned stationary front begins to move slowly northeast across our southwestern counties Saturday evening into Sunday morning, bringing a notable increase in cloud cover and humidity.
This will result in a greater than usual temperature spread across the forecast area, with southwestern areas mainly along and west of Interstate 75 likely to see lows in the mid to upper 60s yet central and northeastern sheltered valleys may see temperatures fall as low as the upper 50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 328 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2024

The large scale flow pattern aloft to begin the extended will feature troughing entering the Pacific Northwest and moving across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Another trough is forecast to move very slowly up the east coast and into New England by the middle of the week. The central part of the CONUS, including our forecast area, will be plagued by repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms, as a series of short waves aloft move through the region. There might also be a weak/diffuse warm frontal boundary in place at the surface near or over our area. These two features, combined with a steady influx of Gulf of Mexico moisture from the south, will set the stage for multiple rounds of rain for eastern Kentucky. The air mass that will be in place will be very warm and muggy and will also lead to very light winds.

The persistent moisture, weak steering currents, and multiple rounds of showers and storms could lead to locally heavy rainfall and perhaps even some flooding around the area. In fact, the Weather Prediction Center now has eastern Kentucky in a slight risk for excessive rainfall Monday through Tuesday of the upcoming work week. Based on the latest model data, all of which is suggesting increasingly favorable conditions for heavy rain, we will be closely monitoring the situation for further evidence of heavy rain and flooding. As of now, it appears the first round of heavy rain will begin on Sunday, with Monday and Tuesday looking most favorable. Daily temperatures will max out in the 80s Sunday through Tuesday, but should be able to achieve higher values in the upper 80s and lower 90s Wednesday through Friday, as the muggier air mass settles over the region.

AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2024

High clouds streaming across the area will slowly shift south through the TAF period, with less or no coverage by Saturday at KSYM, KSJS, and possibly KJKL, and decreasing coverage at KLOZ and KSME. For this TAF package, will keep any mention of VCTS out of KSME for this afternoon, as it appears conditions are not as favorable as areas south and west toward the TN border. Late tonight, valley fog with localized IFR or worse conditions is expected again, but probably not impacting TAF sites with anything more than a potential brief reduction to MVFR conditions at worst. Note that skies will continue to exhibit some haziness due to distant wildfire smoke moving into the area from the north and northwest, but this activity is not expected to result in sub-VFR conditions at any time. Near-surface winds will remain light and variable through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.