Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Inez, KY
April 18, 2024 3:13 AM EDT (07:13 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:47 AM Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 2:20 PM Moonset 3:38 AM |
Area Discussion for - Jackson, KY
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FXUS63 KJKL 180605 AAA AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 205 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A dying front moves into the area overnight and could bring a few showers to northeast Kentucky.
- A cold front with more momentum will approach Thursday night and pass through on Friday, presenting at least a likelihood (>= 60% chance) of showers/thunderstorms.
- Cooler and more seasonable temperatures will arrive behind the second front and carry through the middle of next week.
UPDATE
Issued at 135 AM EDT THU APR 18 2024
Showers and storms still look to stay northeast of the JKL CWA overnight as a weakening boundary drops into the area. It seems that more of the moisture in the boundary layer is now translating to an expanding area of low status rather than fog. Have adjusted the forecast to account for this along with adding in the current obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
UPDATE Issued at 915 PM EDT WED APR 17 2024
A weak moisture starved cold front is sagging southeast toward eastern KY and should cross the area overnight. There is mainly a change in moisture behind it with upper 40s to low 50s dewpoints behind it an dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s ahead of it.
Convection is occurring well north east of eastern KY at this point and although a stray shower or two is possible near the boundary overnight, chances are too low to go more than 10 for the remainder of the night. Hourly grids were updated based on recent observations and trends.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 436 PM EDT WED APR 17 2024
A cold front was situated over western OH and southern IN late today, with thunderstorms occurring along/ahead of the front in OH. The front's upper level support is moving east across the Great Lakes, north of our area, and the front will lose momentum and definition as it arrives in KY tonight. Forecast soundings show some potential for a cap to be broken this evening, but model QPFs and MOS POPs are low. Have used just a 20 percent POP in our far northeastern counties.
Ridging at the surface and aloft then moves in from the west overnight and passes to our east on Thursday, resulting in fair wx.
An upper low traveling east over southern Canada will support another cold front which will approach us from the west northwest late Thursday night, with weak low pressure traveling along the front as it approaches. Models agree on showers and possibly thunderstorms arriving ahead of the front late Thursday night.
LONG TERM
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 608 PM EDT WED APR 17 2024
A mean zonal flow best describes our pattern through the extended portion of the forecast. Within that pattern there are three main features of interest, the first being short wave energy transiting the Great Lakes Friday night through Saturday, which has little if any impact on our sensible weather other than some increased cloud cover. The second is shortwave energy/trough passing through the OH/TN valleys Sunday through Sunday night. The third is a trough rotating through the Midwest at the end of the forecast window.
Sensible weather features a wet start to the period as a cold front will be passing through eastern Kentucky Friday. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms in the morning will taper off to isolated activity by late in the day and early evening.
Based on the timing of this system through eastern Kentucky Friday, it would appear MLCAPE ~700 J/kg and marginal effective shear (~25 kts) will not be enough to provide any type of hazardous threat to the area. Much of the better environmental instability and shear will be located to our southeast outside of our forecast area. We are looking at perhaps a widespread half inch of rainfall with this first round of weather.
Our next best chance for rain thereafter will be the trough passing through the lower Ohio and TN valley Saturday night into Sunday. A surface low will develop in response to this second system, and will provide a chance of showers to the southeastern zones of our forecast area. There are no hazards with the second round of weather, with no forecasted thunderstorms and on average less than a tenth of an inch of rainfall expected. However, this system will carry enough moisture out of the area, and pull in enough dry air into eastern Kentucky that temperatures Monday morning are expected to fall into the upper 30s. Model guidance suggests temperatures may be able to drop a bit further, possibly into the mid 30s by Monday morning. Thus some patchy frost could not be ruled out for Monday morning.
The final system of interest will be the a storm system that will bring another round of precipitation to the area in the form of scattered showers and thunderstorms at the end of the period. It is likely this system will bring another reinforcing shot of cooler air into the region just beyond the end of the forecast window. At present PoPs are low (averaging 30% or less) and QPF is light, around a tenth of an inch or less.
Temperatures will be around normal or just below, providing some seasonably cool weather, and generally more clouds than not. The best chance of seeing sunny, dry and pleasant weather will be Monday through Tuesday.
AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT THU APR 18 2024
VFR was noted across the northeast TAF sites at issuance time, with MVFR CIGs observed through the Cumberland and Kentucky river valleys. Expect the low stratus there to expand and affect most of the area this morning limiting the potential for fog into dawn.
The stratus should start to clear out after dawn with VFR conditions returning this morning and lasting through the TAF period. Southwest to west winds will prevail during the first 6 hours of the forecast period with speeds around 10 kts or less.
After dawn, south to southwest winds will set up at 10 kts or less ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. Convection associated with this boundary should hold off until later Thursday night.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 205 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A dying front moves into the area overnight and could bring a few showers to northeast Kentucky.
- A cold front with more momentum will approach Thursday night and pass through on Friday, presenting at least a likelihood (>= 60% chance) of showers/thunderstorms.
- Cooler and more seasonable temperatures will arrive behind the second front and carry through the middle of next week.
UPDATE
Issued at 135 AM EDT THU APR 18 2024
Showers and storms still look to stay northeast of the JKL CWA overnight as a weakening boundary drops into the area. It seems that more of the moisture in the boundary layer is now translating to an expanding area of low status rather than fog. Have adjusted the forecast to account for this along with adding in the current obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
UPDATE Issued at 915 PM EDT WED APR 17 2024
A weak moisture starved cold front is sagging southeast toward eastern KY and should cross the area overnight. There is mainly a change in moisture behind it with upper 40s to low 50s dewpoints behind it an dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s ahead of it.
Convection is occurring well north east of eastern KY at this point and although a stray shower or two is possible near the boundary overnight, chances are too low to go more than 10 for the remainder of the night. Hourly grids were updated based on recent observations and trends.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 436 PM EDT WED APR 17 2024
A cold front was situated over western OH and southern IN late today, with thunderstorms occurring along/ahead of the front in OH. The front's upper level support is moving east across the Great Lakes, north of our area, and the front will lose momentum and definition as it arrives in KY tonight. Forecast soundings show some potential for a cap to be broken this evening, but model QPFs and MOS POPs are low. Have used just a 20 percent POP in our far northeastern counties.
Ridging at the surface and aloft then moves in from the west overnight and passes to our east on Thursday, resulting in fair wx.
An upper low traveling east over southern Canada will support another cold front which will approach us from the west northwest late Thursday night, with weak low pressure traveling along the front as it approaches. Models agree on showers and possibly thunderstorms arriving ahead of the front late Thursday night.
LONG TERM
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 608 PM EDT WED APR 17 2024
A mean zonal flow best describes our pattern through the extended portion of the forecast. Within that pattern there are three main features of interest, the first being short wave energy transiting the Great Lakes Friday night through Saturday, which has little if any impact on our sensible weather other than some increased cloud cover. The second is shortwave energy/trough passing through the OH/TN valleys Sunday through Sunday night. The third is a trough rotating through the Midwest at the end of the forecast window.
Sensible weather features a wet start to the period as a cold front will be passing through eastern Kentucky Friday. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms in the morning will taper off to isolated activity by late in the day and early evening.
Based on the timing of this system through eastern Kentucky Friday, it would appear MLCAPE ~700 J/kg and marginal effective shear (~25 kts) will not be enough to provide any type of hazardous threat to the area. Much of the better environmental instability and shear will be located to our southeast outside of our forecast area. We are looking at perhaps a widespread half inch of rainfall with this first round of weather.
Our next best chance for rain thereafter will be the trough passing through the lower Ohio and TN valley Saturday night into Sunday. A surface low will develop in response to this second system, and will provide a chance of showers to the southeastern zones of our forecast area. There are no hazards with the second round of weather, with no forecasted thunderstorms and on average less than a tenth of an inch of rainfall expected. However, this system will carry enough moisture out of the area, and pull in enough dry air into eastern Kentucky that temperatures Monday morning are expected to fall into the upper 30s. Model guidance suggests temperatures may be able to drop a bit further, possibly into the mid 30s by Monday morning. Thus some patchy frost could not be ruled out for Monday morning.
The final system of interest will be the a storm system that will bring another round of precipitation to the area in the form of scattered showers and thunderstorms at the end of the period. It is likely this system will bring another reinforcing shot of cooler air into the region just beyond the end of the forecast window. At present PoPs are low (averaging 30% or less) and QPF is light, around a tenth of an inch or less.
Temperatures will be around normal or just below, providing some seasonably cool weather, and generally more clouds than not. The best chance of seeing sunny, dry and pleasant weather will be Monday through Tuesday.
AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT THU APR 18 2024
VFR was noted across the northeast TAF sites at issuance time, with MVFR CIGs observed through the Cumberland and Kentucky river valleys. Expect the low stratus there to expand and affect most of the area this morning limiting the potential for fog into dawn.
The stratus should start to clear out after dawn with VFR conditions returning this morning and lasting through the TAF period. Southwest to west winds will prevail during the first 6 hours of the forecast period with speeds around 10 kts or less.
After dawn, south to southwest winds will set up at 10 kts or less ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. Convection associated with this boundary should hold off until later Thursday night.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KSJS BIG SANDY RGNL,KY | 12 sm | 18 min | W 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 64°F | 59°F | 83% | 30.04 |
Charleston, WV,
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