Marine Weather and Tides
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 6:51AM||Sunset 8:07PM||Thursday April 15, 2021 1:11 AM EDT (05:11 UTC)||Moonrise 7:55AM||Moonset 10:40PM||Illumination 11%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Inez, KYHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Jackson, KY  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KJKL 150352 AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1152 PM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021
UPDATE. Issued at 1152 PM EDT WED APR 14 2021
Only a touch of light precip remains near the VA border, and it should be gone shortly. On the other side of the forecast area, low clouds are clearing out of our far northwest counties late this evening, leaving mostly clear skies with only some thin high clouds. The trend of decreasing clouds will progress southeast with time. These scenarios were already covered by the forecast, and only minor tweaks were necessary for the overnight hours.
UPDATE Issued at 953 PM EDT WED APR 14 2021
Except for some light rain near the VA border, precip has tapered off across the forecast area, and the new forecast reflects this. Otherwise, latest obs/trends have been blended into tonights forecast, but without much impact on the overall outcome.
SHORT TERM. (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 355 PM EDT WED APR 14 2021
19z sfc analysis shows low pressure starting to more effectively move southeast of the area and that is helping to pull the band of rain more into the CWA midway through the afternoon. Ahead of this rain area, temperatures spiked in the far southeast reaching the mid 70s while they did not budge far from the low 50s in the northwest with the rain. Dewpoints remained fairly uniform across the area in the mid to upper 40s while the winds were mostly light and variable under cloudy skies.
The models are in relatively good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict fairly fast flow through Kentucky beneath a deep and closed trough over the western Great Lakes and north of ridging through the Gulf of Mexico. A weak wave moves through the nearly zonal flow this evening before the pattern tilts more northwesterly with the trough to the north slowly shifting off to the east. This process will send some height falls through the eastern part of the state into Friday morning. Given the small model spread around these features will favor the NBM's blended solution for the grids.
Sensible weather will feature cooler conditions during the rest of the week. Look for a period of showers moving through the area into the evening. Drying will follow late along with temperatures dropping off. This could result in some patchy frost toward dawn Thursday in the west, but the vast majority of the area will be too warm for its formation. Drying and cool conditions follow for Thursday with some clouds still around limiting the warmup. That night, mostly clear skies, light winds, and the chilly air mass will result in more of a ridge to valley temperature split into Friday morning with frost a pretty good bet for much of the area as some valleys may even touch freezing by dawn. Will hit the frost potential in the HWO pretty hard and anticipate the need for an advisory Thursday night.
Made the most temperature adjustments to the grids for Thursday night for terrain differences. As for PoPs, mainly used the radar trends and CAMs consensus for the showers passing through into the evening.
LONG TERM. (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 437 PM EDT WED APR 14 2021
The extended period should be fairly uneventful, other than some rain chances. High pressure and a weak area of upper level ridging will be moving through Friday with mostly clear skies and temperatures several degrees warmer than the previous day (highs in the upper 50s and low 60s). A upper level low will develop Friday night across the Central Plains, shifting eastward towards the Ohio Valley Saturday and Saturday night as it weakens into an open wave. A surface low will be passing across the Deep South during this time. The combination will result in some rain chances through that period. The models seem to be going a bit heavier on the pops than the NBM, so if this trend continues, would be inclined for the NBM to increase. A secondary upper level low/wave is expected to move through Sunday evening and night, which could bring another surge of moisture to the state, and another round of rain chances. Both of these system will lack a lot of instability, so kept with just rain and no thunderstorms.
High pressure will briefly take hold for the second half of the day Monday through Tuesday morning. Yet another upper level wave should be pushing into the Ohio Valley during the day Tuesday, with a surface low passing north of the Great Lakes and a cold front draping SEward. Precip will form along this front, and should move into the JKL CWA, along with the front, as we head into Tuesday night. Models are in fairly good agreement about this system. The NBM is putting some generally slight chances pops across portions of the CWA throughout the day Tuesday. Based on the GFS and ECMWF, Tuesday should remain dry . but given so late in the forecast period and uncertainties, choose to keep it in at this point.
Overall, without any major frontal systems moving through or airmass changes, the temperatures should be relatively steady state. Highs will generally be in the upper 50s and low 60s. Lows will be in the upper 30s and low 40s (coolest in the valleys, especially during mostly clear nights).
AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 953 PM EDT WED APR 14 2021
The period began with showers over southeast KY continuing to taper off. Conditions varied greatly from IFR to VFR, with the worst conditions generally in southeast KY in and near the rain, with conditions generally improving northwestward. Rain will end this evening and improvement will progress southeastward tonight, with mostly VFR conditions expected by dawn, and then lasting through the remainder of the period.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.
UPDATE . HAL SHORT TERM . GREIF LONG TERM . JMW AVIATION . HAL
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